Pakistan is eyeing sea-based and short-range nuclear weapons, analysts say
Washington Post
Pakistani Submarines Will Soon Be Nuclear Capable
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan —
In
one of the world’s most volatile regions, Pakistan is advancing toward a
sea-based missile capability and expanding its interest in tactical
nuclear warheads, according to Pakistani and Western analysts.
The development of nuclear
missiles that could be fired from a ship or submarine would give
Pakistan “second-strike” capability if a catastrophic nuclear exchange
destroyed all land-based weapons. But the acceleration of Pakistan’s
nuclear and missile programs is renewing international concern about the
vulnerability of those weapons in a country that is home to more than
two dozen Islamist extremist groups.
“The assurances Pakistan has given the world about the safety of its
nuclear program will be severely tested with short-range and sea-based
systems, but they are coming,” said Michael Krepon, co-founder of the
Stimson Center, a Washington-based global security think tank.
“A
cardinal principle of Pakistan’s nuclear program has been, ‘Don’t
worry; we separate warheads from launchers.’ Well, that is very hard to
do at sea.”
Western officials have been concerned about Pakistan’s nuclear
program since it first tested an atomic device in 1998. Those fears have
deepened over the past decade amid political tumult, terrorist attacks
and tensions with the country’s nuclear-armed neighbor, India, with
which it has fought three wars.
That instability was
underscored this month as anti-government protests in the capital
appeared to push Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s government to the brink
of collapse. The political crisis was unfolding as Pakistan and
India continued lobbing artillery shells across their border, in a
tit-for-tat escalation that illustrated the continued risk of another
war.
For more than a decade, Pakistan has sent signals that it is
attempting to bolster its nuclear arsenal with “tactical” weapons —
short-range missiles that carry a smaller warhead and are easier to
transport.
Over the past two years, Pakistan has conducted at least eight tests
of various land-based ballistic or cruise missiles that it says are
capable of delivering nuclear warheads. Last September, Sharif, citing
“evolving security dynamics in South Asia,” said Pakistan is developing
“a full-spectrum deterrence capability to deter all forms of
aggression.”
The next step of Pakistan’s
strategy includes an effort to develop nuclear warheads suitable for
deployment from the Indian Ocean, either from warships or from one of
the country’s five diesel-powered submarines, analysts say. In a
sign of that ambition, Pakistan in 2012 created the Naval Strategic
Force command, which is similar to the commands in the air force and
army that oversee nuclear weapons.
“
We are on our way, and my own hunch is within a year or so, we should be developing our second-strike capability,”
said Shireen M. Mazari, a nuclear expert and the former director of the
Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad, a hawkish
Pakistani-government-funded think tank.
Pakistan’s nuclear push comes amid heightened tension with U.S.
intelligence and congressional officials over the security of the
country’s nuclear weapons and materials. The Washington Post reported in
September 2013 that U.S. intelligence officials had increased
surveillance of Pakistan in part because of concerns that nuclear
materials could fall into the hands of terrorists.
State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki, asked whether the United
States is concerned about a sea-launched Pakistani weapon, said it is up
to Pakistan to discuss its programs and plans. But, she said, “we
continue to urge all nuclear-capable states to exercise restraint
regarding nuclear and missile capabilities. We continue to encourage
efforts to promote confidence-building and stability and discourage
actions that might destabilize the region.”
During a visit to Washington for consultations with the Obama
administration in July, Tariq Fatemi, Sharif’s senior foreign policy
adviser, said the government had “no intention of pursuing” sea-based
nuclear weapons.
It is unclear how much direct knowledge Sharif’s government has about
the country’s nuclear weapons and missile-development programs, which
are controlled by the powerful military’s Strategic Planning
Directorate. But the prime minister is the chairman of the country’s
National Command Authority, a group of civilian and military officials
who would decide whether to launch a nuclear weapon.
Pakistani military officials declined to comment on the nuclear
program. They note, however, that a January report by the
Washington-based Nuclear Threat Initiative named Pakistan the “most
improved” in safeguarding nuclear materials.
Analysts say much about Pakistan’s program remains a mystery. Western
experts, for example, are divided over whether Pakistan has the ability
to shrink warheads enough for use with tactical or sea-launched
weapons.
“They may have done so, but I can’t imagine it’s very reliable,” said
Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear and nonproliferation scholar at the Monterey
Institute of International Studies. Still, Lewis and other analysts say
Pakistan is without doubt embarking on an ambitious multi-year strategy
to enhance its nuclear arsenal and delivery systems.
In 2011, nongovernment
experts interviewed by The Post estimated that Pakistan had built more
than 100 deployed nuclear weapons. Now Pakistan’s fourth
plutonium-production reactor is also nearing completion, and while most
assessments of the country’s warhead inventory have not changed much in
recent years, analysts say Pakistan continues to produce weapons
material and develop delivery vehicles, positioning itself for another
spurt of rapid growth at any time.
“They are going to make as much fissile material as they possibly can
and keep making as many warheads as they possibly can,” said Pervez
Hoodbhoy, a leading Pakistani nuclear expert and physicist.
India, which experts
estimate has 80 to 100 deployed nuclear weapons, has a stated policy of
using them only in response to an attack. Pakistan has repeatedly
declined to embrace a no-first-use policy.
But concerns within Pakistan about India’s growing nuclear ambitions are helping to fuel Pakistan’s own advancements.
India, too, has been stepping up research and development of
offensive and defensive weapons systems. In 2012, India test-launched
its first intercontinental ballistic missile, which it said has a range
of more than 3,100 miles. In February, the Times of India reported that
the missile, as well as the country’s first nuclear-powered submarine,
could be deployed as early as next year. In May, India conducted its
first test of a planned missile defense system.
Much of India’s ballistic technology appears aimed at boosting its
defenses against China, not Pakistan. But the Pakistani military has
been shifting the focus of the country’s nuclear program over the past
decade because of fears that Indian forces could use the threat of
terrorism to launch a sudden cross-border strike.
India has a sizable advantage in conventional weapons, and its army
is more than twice the size of Pakistan’s. And in recent years,
Pakistan’s army says, more than one-third of Pakistan’s 500,000 soldiers
have been focused not on the eastern frontier, but on battling Islamist
militants on the region bordering Afghanistan.
So instead of working to enhance the range of its missiles, Pakistan
is developing shorter-range cruise missiles that fly lower to the ground
and can evade ballistic missile defenses, analysts say.
Pakistan has repeatedly tested its indigenously produced,
nuclear-capable Babur cruise missile, which has a range of 400 miles and
can strike targets at land and sea, military officials said. In 2011
and last year, Pakistan also tested a new tactical, nuclear-capable
battlefield missile that has a range of just 37 miles.
“This is the miniaturization of warheads,” said Mansoor Ahmed, a
strategic studies and nuclear expert at Quaid-i-Azam University in
Islamabad.
Maria Sultan, chairwoman of the Islamabad-based South Asian Strategic
Stability Institute, an organization with close links to Pakistani
military and intelligence officials, said the short-range missile is
designed as a signal to India’s military.
“We are saying, ‘We have target acquisition for very small targets as
well, so it’s really not a great idea to come attack us,’ ” Sultan
said. “Before, we only had big weapons, so there was a gap in our
deterrence, which is why we have gone for tactical nuclear weapons and
cruise missiles.”
Still, even a limited use of nuclear weapons on the battlefield would
likely trigger a major retaliatory strike from India, said Manpreet
Sethi, a senior fellow at the New Delhi-based Centre for Air Power
Studies.
“The use of tactical nuclear weapons is not going to change an [Indian] offensive in any substantial way,” Sethi said. “Slow down, yes, but not stop.”
Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the
Federation of American Scientists, said the fact that Pakistani and
Indian analysts even debate the outcome of a limited nuclear exchange is
cause for alarm.
“India and Pakistan have so many avenues into a conflict that could spin out of control,” Kristensen said.
“The development of these weapons systems lowers the point where you could potentially see nuclear weapons come into use.”
