Plagues Upon Plague: Revelation 6

Gabriel Morales faced terrible pain after contracting the monkeypox virus but had trouble finding treatment.Amir Hamja for The New York Times

For Monkeypox Patients, Excruciating Symptoms and a Struggle for Care

As New York City and the federal government strain to supply enough vaccines, patients face a private battle to find treatment and relief from serious symptoms.

July 18, 2022Updated 9:53 a.m. ET

Although he was covered with lesions, it took four hours of phone calls, and then five hours in a Harlem emergency room, for Gabriel Morales to be tested for the monkeypox virus earlier this month. And that was just the beginning of his wait.

Mr. Morales was sent home and told the Department of Health would call with his results in less than a week. The call never came.

He spent the next eight days alone in his apartment in what he described as excruciating pain, trying to find someone to prescribe him pain medication and a hard-to-access antiviral drug.

As time passed, the disorganization in the public health response disturbed him more and more: the city’s vaccine website glitches; a vaccine rollout that seemed designed to reach the privileged and that turned him away; an opaque process to access medicine that he believed could help, but that he couldn’t find.

When he received a $720 bill for his emergency room visit, it felt like more than incompetence. It felt like a lack of compassion.

“I understand that this is new — but it is urgent,” said Mr. Morales, 27, who was eventually prescribed the antiviral drug to help with his symptoms. His test, he found out after 10 days, had never been picked up from the hospital. “It was just the worst pain I’ve experienced in my life.”

While monkeypox can sometimes result in mild symptoms, it is turning out to be unexpectedly severe for a substantial number of patients infected in this outbreak, according to doctors, public health officials and patients in New York City, the epicenter of the nation’s cases.

Beyond the very public shortcomings in the government’s vaccination efforts are the private struggles of the men infected with the disease who have found care hard to come by. Internal lesions in the anus, genitals and mouth can be particularly painful, and there is growing concern that they may cause debilitating scarring.

“What many of us learned in medical schools is that monkeypox is a mild, self-limiting illness,” said Dr. Mary Foote, medical director of the office of emergency preparedness and response at the city’s Department of Health, speaking at a Thursday briefing hosted by the Infectious Diseases Society of America. “But the reality on the ground is that a lot of people with this infection are really suffering.”

What’s also striking, she said, about this outbreak, is “how many of these patients have had difficulty getting the care they need to treat these symptoms.”

What to Know About the Monkeypox Virus

---

What is monkeypox? Monkeypox is a virus endemic in parts of Central and West Africa. It is similar to smallpox, but less severe. It was discovered in 1958, after outbreaks occurred in monkeys kept for research, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

What to Know About the Monkeypox Virus

---

What are the symptoms? Monkeypox creates a rash that starts with flat red marks that become raised and filled with pus. Infected people may also have a fever and body aches. Symptoms typically appear in six to 13 days but can take as long as three weeks after exposure to show, and can last for two to four weeks. Health officials say smallpox vaccines and other treatments can be used to control an outbreak.

What to Know About the Monkeypox Virus

---

How infectious is it? The virus spreads mainly through body fluids, skin contact and respiratory droplets, though some experts suggest that it could occasionally be airborne. Typically it does not lead to major outbreaks, though it has spread in unusual ways this year, and among populations that have not been vulnerable in the past.

What to Know About the Monkeypox Virus

---

Should I be worried? The likelihood of the virus being spread during sexual contact is high, but the risk of transmission in other ways is low. Most people have mild symptoms and recover within weeks, but the virus can be fatal in a small percentage of cases. Experts say that monkeypox is unlikely to create a pandemic scenario similar to that of the coronavirus.

What to Know About the Monkeypox Virus

---

What’s the situation in the United States?Experts say that the rapid spread of monkeypox across the country and the government’s sluggish response raise questions about the nation’s preparedness for pandemic threats. Tests will not be readily available until later this month and vaccines will be in short supply for months. Official case counts, now in the hundreds, are likely a gross underestimate.

Monkeypox, endemic in parts of Africa for decades, has been spreading globally since early May through networks of men who have sex with men, probably sparked by transmission at one or more raves in Europe, researchers believe. The disease, which mostly transmits though intimate, skin-to-skin contact, has resulted in fatalities in Africa, but no one has yet died of the disease in the United States.

The first American case was recorded on May 18. There have now been more than 1,800 cases, affecting almost every state. Experts are concerned that if the outbreak is not contained, the virus will persist and spread more widely.

In New York City, cases have nearly tripled over the past week to 461 total cases on July 15, up from 160 on July 8. While some of that increase stems from expanded testing capacity and awareness, the spread of the disease in the city is “exponential,” said Dr. Foote, and is likely to continue for a while.

The unexpected severity of symptoms is making patients’ encounters with an overburdened health care system that was not prepared for this outbreak even more difficult. Interviews with six recent and current monkeypox patients in New York City, and three in other cities across the country, suggest that the public health response has been slow and underresourced at every level, from testing to treatment to vaccination.

Another of those patients, Sebastian Kohn, 39, felt exhausted and feverish through much of the July 4 weekend and had painful, swollen lymph nodes. Then the rash started. 

Mr. Kohn, who lives in the Flatbush neighborhood of Brooklyn, has private health insurance, so he went to a local urgent care to get tested while dizzy with a 103-degree fever. But he was not prescribed anything stronger than Tylenol for the pain. “The most painful thing are the anal rectal lesions,” he said. “They are just excruciating.”

Ultimately, he said, lidocaine helped, but for a week, no one prescribed it to him.

Both Mr. Morales and Mr. Kohn are sexually active gay men, as are most patients so far in the outbreak in New York and beyond. Within that group, privilege and know-how has helped some people find care faster than others.

Sign up for the New York Today Newsletter  Each morning, get the latest on New York businesses, arts, sports, dining, style and more.

A lawyer who asked to be identified by his initial, M., to protect his medical privacy, said he went into full litigator mode after a sexual partner called him on June 15 to tell him he had monkeypox.

M. was able to get a first vaccine dose at Bellevue, the city’s main public hospital and a hub of its monkeypox response, by showing up and insisting. After he tested positive despite the dose, he was able to get the sought-after antiviral drug, TPOXX, which relieves symptoms but requires special approval for each patient, because one medical practice helped.

“It was still horrible but I was lucky,” he said. “I’m just worried about everybody else.”

Mr. Kohn also eventually received TPOXX, but only after an exhausting process.

The urgent care center where he had been tested told him to call the Department of Health. The Department of Health told him he had to be referred by his primary care doctor. His doctor’s office told him to speak to the health department.

Eventually, he received a call back from a sexual health clinic affiliated with NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital, which said someone at the health department had referred him. “It’s just no coordination at all,” he said. “It’s just not fair to have patients who are severely ill run in circles to organize their own care.”

TPOXX, or tecovirimat, which was originally developed in case of a smallpox bioterrorism incident, is only available for monkeypox treatment through a compassionate-use protocol, which requires submitting hours of paperwork to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for each patient. It is not approved by the Food and Drug Administration for the treatment of monkeypox, though anecdotally it is showing positive results, clinicians say.

Providers and local health officials are pushing the federal government to open up access to the drug.

“This is not a mild disease, for a percentage of people it is much more worse than I would have anticipated,” said Dr. Jason Zucker, an infectious disease specialist at the NewYork-Presbyterian clinic.

His clinic has given the antiviral to 26 patients so far, he said. Citywide, 70 prescriptions have been written, Dr. Foote said.

“As a city and a system, we are still really struggling to meet the demand,” she said.

Sergio Rodriguez, 39, is a queer trans man who lives on Manhattan’s Lower East Side. Because he was already a patient at Callen-Lorde, a well-known sexual health clinic, he was able to quickly get an appointment to be swabbed there for lesions on July 5. But his results never came back, either.

A week after his test, he did receive a call from the Health Department — but it was a contact tracer telling him he had been exposed to someone else with the virus. Mr. Rodriguez told the tracer he was living with his immunocompromised, 76-year-old father, and that he desperately needed him vaccinated.

Finally, on July 15, the department called his father to arrange for his vaccination.

Mr. Rodriguez was frustrated with the response. “In my experience, especially as a trans Latino person in New York City, my health and my concerns are not going to be emphasized,” he said. “Things are going to go to people that have more access and that have more strings to pull and also who are of a different socioeconomic class.”

Dr. Foote said the Health Department is well aware of the difficulties people are having in accessing care. City health officials are trying to push the federal government for more vaccines and access to TPOXX and are concerned about equity in distributing it. Mayor Eric Adams recently wrote a letter to President Biden asking for more vaccines.

In recent weeks, aspects of the response have improved. Testing capacity has grown after LabCorp, a commercial lab, began offering tests. Vaccines have begun to flow into the city in greater numbers, though demand still far outstrips supply. On Friday, 9,200 vaccine appointments were booked in seven minutes, the city said.

The city has also been working to improve its vaccine rollout system, reserving some doses for distribution through community providers and developing a mass vaccination plan. And education among health care providers, though still uneven, has been growing: L.G.B.T.Q. health organizations have held webinars, and the city has issued treatment guidance to providers.

Eli, 28, a Chelsea resident who works in nightlife and asked to be identified by his nickname to protect his medical privacy, was among the first in New York to test positive for monkeypox. He came down with a fever on June 22 and began noticing anal pain the next day, as did three friends he had been sexually active with on Fire Island.

The next day, he went to the Chelsea Sexual Health Clinic, where he was told by two providers that he most likely had a different sexually transmitted disease, not monkeypox.

By Sunday night, the pain had increased so much that he and his friends went to an urgent care clinic in Union Square. The doctor at first refused to test him for monkeypox, he said, but eventually agreed to submit photos of his lesions to the Department of Health.

He said the Health Department called five days later with his results, and that, after he pushed, the contact tracer gave him the cellphone number for the Department of Health’s head of bioterrorism. That connection helped him obtain shots for 26 close contacts — friends and people he works with in nightlife who he knew were at high risk.

Though his own case was relatively mild, Eli said he has found it very upsetting to watch the government flub its virus response. He has known from the beginning, he said, that it probably wasn’t going to go well. 

“‘Y’all are being dumb about this,’” he recalled yelling at the Health Department tracer. “‘This is going to be bad.’”

Israeli troops kill Palestinian outside the Temple Walls: Revelation 11

Israeli troops kill Palestinian in West Bank clashes

JERUSALEM (AP) — Israeli troops shot dead a Palestinian during clashes in the occupied West Bank late Sunday, hours after police fanned out in a tense east Jerusalem neighborhood trying to contain violence between ultranationalist Jewish activists and Palestinian residents.

Early Monday, the Palestinian Health Ministry said Akram Abu Salah, 17, died from a gunshot to his head.

The clashes erupted after Israeli forces rolled into Silat al-Harithiya village near Jenin to destroy homes of two Palestinian detainees accused of opening fire at a car traveling near a West Bank settlement outpost and killing a settler in December.

Earlier in Jerusalem, unrest took place in Sheikh Jarrah, a flashpoint neighborhood where clashes last year helped spark an 11-day war between Israel and Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip.

Dozens of Palestinian families in Sheikh Jarrah and other east Jerusalem neighborhoods are at risk of eviction by Jewish settler organizations, and tensions between the sides often escalate to violence.

The latest unrest erupted after a settler’s home was torched over the weekend. Itamar Ben-Gvir, an ultranationalist lawmaker, responded to the fire by setting up a makeshift office early Sunday near the home of a family facing possible eviction. Palestinians moved in on Ben-Gvir’s tent, throwing plastic chairs in the afternoon and scuffling with his supporters.

Late Sunday, riot police sprayed putrid-smelling water to break up Palestinian protests. One video on social media showed an Israeli policeman kicking a young Palestinian man. Police reported at least 12 arrests.

The Palestinian Red Crescent medical service said 14 Palestinians were wounded, including four people shot with rubber bullets. Explosions from stun grenades used by police to disperse crowds could be heard during the evening.

Ben-Gvir, a follower of a radical rabbi who called for the expulsion of Arabs from Israel, accused police of using “extreme brutality” against his followers. He said he would spend the night in the area “so they will learn.”

In addition to the threatened evictions, thousands of Palestinians live in homes in east Jerusalem that face the threat of demolition because of discriminatory policies that make it extremely difficult for Palestinians to build new homes or expand existing ones. Threatened evictions, tied up in decades-old battles between Palestinian residents and Jewish settlers, set off protests and clashes last May that helped ignite the Gaza war.

Israel captured east Jerusalem, along with the West Bank and Gaza Strip, in the 1967 Mideast war. It later annexed east Jerusalem, home to the city’s most sensitive holy sites, in a move that is not recognized by the international community.

Israel considers the entire city to be its capital, while the Palestinians claim east Jerusalem as the capital of a future state. The city’s fate is one of the most divisive issues in the century-old conflict.

The Antichrist’s Muqtada al-Sadr’s Next Step In Iraq

Muqtada al-Sadr’s Next Step In Iraq

In a dramatic parliamentary session on January 9, the new Iraqi parliament reelectedMohamed al-Halbousi for a second term as speaker. While the vote further widened intra-Shia divisions, it also revealed Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s ability to change political dynamics across Iraq. The Sadrist Movement, the Sunni Taqadum and al-Azim alliance, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), and other smaller factions attended the session and voted for Halbousi and his two deputies.

According to the Iraqi constitution, the parliament has thirty days from the first session to elect the country’s new president, who will then ask the largest bloc in parliament to form a government. To date, there is no agreement between Iraq’s main political powers. The post-2003 system in Iraq is centered on an informal power-sharing arrangement among Shia Arabs, Sunni Arabs, and Kurds. Under this informal system, the prime minister’s post is reserved for a Shia, the position of speaker is reserved for a Sunni, and the president is required to be a Kurd.

Halbousi’s election can be seen as a victory for Sadr’s bloc over the Coordination Framework, a bloc that is largely aligned with Iran. Today, the political representation of the Iraqi Shia community is clearly divided into two main blocs. The first is the Sadrist Movement, which is led by the cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, one of Iraq’s most visible post-2003 political leaders. The other Shia bloc is the Coordination Framework, a loose coalition of mainly Shia parties that includes two former prime ministers and other influential Shia political figures.

The Sadrists claimed nearly 40 percent of the seats won by Shia in the October 2021 election. Due to the complex nature of its coalition, it is still unclear how many seats the Coordination Framework will command. Nevertheless, it appears that they will control at least seventy seats.

As the largest single party in parliament, the Sadrists voted for the reelection of Halbousi, while the Coordination Framework boycotted the vote. A similar division occurred among the Kurds. The KDP, led by Masoud Barzani, attended the vote, while the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) joined the Coordination Framework in boycotting the vote.

Sadr described the vote as an important step toward forming a national majority government. Since the October 2021 election, the Sadrists have considered either trying to form a national majority government in coalition with non-Shia parties or settling for the role of Iraq’s political opposition. The Coordination Framework has only proposed one option: forming a consensus government. For Sadr, forming a majority government would mean reaching out to the major winners within the Sunni and Kurdish communities while excluding other political forces across the spectrum. A majority government can certainly be a responsible and effective government with clear tasks, expectations, and responsibilities. However, this idea is rejected by the Coordination Framework and every major party besides Sadr’s.

Sadr is serious about forming a majority government, which would challenge the post-2003 status quo in Iraq. At the same time, he knows that he has no guaranteed support from the other parties. While the Sunnis and the KDP joined Sadr in the vote for speaker, electing a president and prime minister is much more complex. Any Sadrist national majority government will depend on the support of the KDP and the new alliance between Taqaddum and al-Azim, the major political winners among Iraq’s Kurds and Sunnis. With the seats of another Kurdish party, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, Sadr could also lead a new government. On the other hand, Sadr could form a national majority government by dividing the Coordination Framework and gaining the support of Shia alliances such as the National Power of the State Coalition and the Fatah Alliance.

Sadr will face three key challenges in any attempt to form an alliance with the Kurds and Sunnis. First, though an understanding between Sadr, Barzani, and Halbousi existed prior to the election, the KDP and the Sunni parties have so far rejected the idea of forming an alliance with just one Shia bloc. In addition, former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, the Coordination Framework’s leader, has tried to create new alliances in an attempt to increase the Framework’s seats. This has created a balance of seats between the two Sunni blocs, making it difficult for Halbousi to claim sole leadership or representation of Iraq’s Sunnis. Finally, if Sadr does manage to obtain the support of the KDP and Halbousi, the Sadrists—the Shia component of the coalition—will not constitute a majority, making it the first government not dominated by Shia since 2003. This may make it a struggle for the coalition to win the support of the Shia community. 

These challenges make it more likely that Sadr will try to reach out to Shia powers within the Coordination Framework to form a Sadr-led consensus government. The Sadrists may also consider settling as the opposition. The latter option may hold some appeal for Sadr, who has always presented himself as a renegadewho holds the government in Baghdad to account. Sadr’s supporters, who do not question his choices, may see Sadr as a true leader who sacrificed political power for the sake of the nation. This would not be the first time that Sadr threatened to leave a government and join the opposition. What is different today is that the Sadrists hold over seventy seats and could gain the support of smaller factions in order to create a sizable opposition bloc. If Sadr decides to take this path, he will create the most significant opposition force in the post-2003 Iraqi political system.

However, there are significant barriers that likely outweigh the perceived benefits of forming an opposition coalition. If Sadr does form an opposition coalition, it will only be because he has been prevented from forming a majority government. Considering the personal rivalry between Maliki and Sadr, this outcome will have broader implications for Sadr’s image and credibility.

Losing out on the ability to make appointments for the thousands of senior and special posts in the Iraqi government may also make Sadr hesitate to form an opposition coalition. Controlling these appointments allows politicians to direct national policy and advance their own political, ethnosectarian, and economic interests. Being in the opposition would prevent Sadr from taking advantage of this opportunity.

While Sadr enjoys a disciplined base and can afford to change his positions without losing support, he knows that his victory was largely due to the Sadrists’ skillful handling of new electoral laws. While they gained nineteen seats in the recent election, their share of the popular vote decreased significantly. For many political activists within the Sadrist Movement, especially those who worked hard during the election campaign, being in the opposition would prevent them from reaping the rewards that they believe Sadr owes them.

Lastly, if Sadr is not included in the next government, the Coordination Framework and the militias aligned with it will dominate Iraq. This would allow the militias to continue operating outside of Iraq’s security forces without facing pressure from the government. The crackdown on illegally owned weapons that Sadr campaigned on would not be implemented, and Sadr would disappoint the international supporters who saw in him a means to reduce the influence of pro-Iranian armed groups.

With all this in mind, it is likely that a partial consensus government will be formed. There is nothing new about a consensus government. However, what is new is that it may be a consensus government that advances the political, ideological, and international priorities of Muqtada al-Sadr.

Kamaran Palani is an Associate Fellow at Al Sharq Strategic Research, a Research Fellow at the Middle East Research Institute, and Lecturer in International Relations at Salahaddin-University-Erbil. His research interests include Iraqi politics, regional Kurdish politics, de facto statehood in the international system, internal displacement and prevention of violent extremism in Iraq.

Antichrist’s Push to Sideline Iran-Backed Iraqi Factions Risks Clash

Sadr’s Push to Sideline Iran-Backed Iraqi Factions Risks Clash

Friday, 14 January, 2022 – 11:15

Cleric Moqtada al-Sadr speaks after preliminary results of Iraq’s parliamentary election were announced in Najaf, Iraq October 11, 2021. (Reuters)Asharq Al-Awsat

Iraq might for the first time in years get a government that excludes Iran-backed parties if Shiite populist cleric, Moqtada al-Sadr, who dominated a recent election keeps his word, Iraqi politicians, government officials and independent analysts say according to Reuters.

But moves by Sadr to sideline rivals long backed by Tehran risks the ire of their heavily armed militias that make up some of the most powerful and most anti-American military forces in Iraq, they say.

The surest sign of Sadr’s new parliamentary power and his willingness to ignore groups loyal to Iran came on Sunday when his Sadrist Movement, together with a Sunni parliament alliance and Kurds, reelected a parliamentary speaker opposed by the Iran-aligned camp with a solid majority.

Parliament must in the coming weeks choose the country’s president, who will call on the largest parliamentary alliance to form a government, a process that will be dominated by the Sadrist Movement whoever it chooses to work with.

“We are on track to form a national majority government,” Sadr said in a statement this week, using a term that officials say is a euphemism for a government made up of Sadrists, Sunnis and Kurds but no Iran-backed parties.

Sadr’s politicians, buoyed by their easy victory in parliament last week, echoed their leader’s confidence.

The Iran camp “should face reality: election losers can’t make the government,” said Riyadh al-Masoudi, a senior member of the Sadrist Movement.

“We have a real majority, a strong front that includes us, the Sunnis, most of the Kurds and many independents and can form a government very soon.”

Iraqi politicians and analysts say the rise of Sadr and political decline of the Iranian camp, long hostile to the United States, suits Washington and its allies in the region, despite Sadr’s unpredictability.

But excluding the Iran camp from government risks a violent backlash.

“If the Sadrists get their national majority government … those who oppose them will view this as splitting the Shiites and threatening their power,” Ahmed Younis, an Iraqi political and legal analyst, said.

“They will do all they can to avoid losing that grip.”

Shiite groups have dominated Iraqi politics since the US-led overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003. They span an array of parties, most with armed wings, but fall broadly now into two camps: those that are pro-Iran and those that oppose Tehran’s influence in Iraq.

The Shiite elite have shared control over many ministries, with Iran-aligned groups holding the upper hand until the recent rise of Sadr, the biggest winner in the Oct. 10 election which dealt a crushing blow to the Iran camp.

For the first time post-Saddam, the Iran-aligned groups could see themselves in opposition in parliament.

‘Scary moment’

Events since the election have showed how dangerous the sharpening divide between Sadr and his Iran-backed opponents has become.

In November, protests opposing the election result by supporters of those parties turned violent and an armed drone attack blamed on Iran-linked factions struck a residence of outgoing Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, widely viewed as a close Sadr ally.

On Friday an explosion hit the Baghdad party headquarters of newly re-elected parliament Speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi.

It was not immediately clear if this was linked to Halbousi’s election by parliament on Sunday or who was responsible. There was no claim of responsibility. One Iran-aligned group issued a warning this week after the parliament’s decision that Iraq could see a spiral of violence.

An Iraqi government official, who declined to be named, said he expected those in the Iran camp to use the threat of violence to get a place in government, but not to escalate into a full-scale conflict with Sadr.

Other observers, however, say Sadr’s insistence on sidelining Iran-aligned parties and militias could be a dangerous gamble.

“The question is, does he (Sadr) realize how potentially destabilizing this is and is he ready for the violent push back?” said Professor Toby Dodge of the London School of Economics.

“The (Iran-backed) militias are increasingly overtly threatening violence, and Sadr is saying they cannot do this. It’s a scary moment.”

Halbousi’s election was viewed as an easy victory for the Sadrists. But the stakes will be higher in selecting a president and a prime minister.

Politicians on both sides of the Shiite divide show little sign they might soften their positions.

“The Sadrists … marginalizing parts of the Shiite political class could lead to boycotts of the government, protests in the street and armed violence,” said Ibrahim Mohammed, a senior member of the Iran-aligned Fatah political alliance.

A second Sadrist politician, who declined to be named on orders from his party, said: “We’re powerful, we have a strong leader and millions of followers who are ready to take to the streets and sacrifice themselves.”

The Antichrist expected to nominate Kadhimi for Iraq’ premiership

Sadrist Movement expected to nominate Kadhimi for Iraq’ premiership

The prime minister is fully engaged in a campaign to fight corruption, which is at the core of the Sadrists’ reform agenda.Thursday 13/01/2022

Iraqi Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr welcomes Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi in Najaf, Iraq, January 6, 2022. (REUTERS)

BAGHDAD-

Iraqi political sources say that Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi is smoothly gliding towards a new term in office, given the support he enjoys from the Sadrist Movement.

The sources point out that Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr sees Kadhimi as the most capable figure who could lead a “national majority” government to be formed by the Sadrists with the backing of Sunni and Kurdish blocs.

The sources note that the objections of the pro-Iranian Coordination Framework Shia parties to Kadhimi are not of much concern to the Sadrists.

Iraq watchers point out that Kadhimi, despite the modest results achieved during his current term in office, has shown himself to be able to deal effectively with Iraq’s quandaries and has demonstrated a great measure of pragmatism in handling foreign interference in Iraqi affairs.

Analysts say there is no external veto on Kadhimi. Even Tehran does not object to his nomination as it does not consider the premier, in the final analysis, to be a threat to its interests.

They believe that the only obstacle to Kadhimi’s accession to the premiership is the opposition of the pro-Iranian militias. But these forces will ultimately have no choice in the matter if Muqatada Al-Sadr insists on nominating Kadhimi and if the latter wins the support of the Sunni and Kurdish blocs.

The prime minister had met, on Monday, the leader of the Al-Fatah (Conquest) Alliance, Al-Hadi Al-Amiri, in Baghdad.  The purpose of the visit, according to sources, was to de-escalate tensions with the alliance, considered a political offshoot of the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF).

Kadhimi also visited Najaf, Wednesday. Sources close to the prime minister said the visit was a follow-up to a previous visit, less than a week ago, during which the prime minister examined the state of services in the governorate, the stronghold of the Sadrist Movement.

During his earlier visit to Najaf,  where he was warmly welcomed by Sadr, Kadhimi announced a set of measures regarding local affairs of the west-central province.

Analysts say Kadhimi has recently been leading an active campaign to burnish his own image, by announcing a number of development projects and reshuffling governors and senior officials so as to remove from office those suspected of corruption or the repression of protests, as was the case with the governor of Dhi Qar.

Iraqi affairs experts believe that the recent anti-graft measures taken by Kadhimi are consistent with the positions advocated by the Sadrist Movement and its leader, putting corruption at the forefront of the reform project they want to be implemented after the formation of a national majority government.

Iraq’s Integrity Commission announced on Wednesday the issuance of arrest warrants and summons for 85 high-ranking officials, on corruption-related charges, during the month of December.

A statement by the official commission, tasked with investigating corruption cases in Iraq, said that judicial authorities issued the warrants after the investigation by the Integrity Commission of cases in Baghdad and other provinces. It indicated that 21 arrest warrants and 77 summonses were issued, including one involving a current government minister, as well as a number of former ministers, in addition to former parliamentarians, governors and other senior officials. No names were however revealed.

Iraq is considered to be among the most corrupt countries in the world, according to the Transparency International index over the past years.

Last October, the country held early legislative elections in the wake of large protests against corruption since 2019.

The leader of the Sadrist Movement has focused during the election campaign on the need to prioritise the fight against corruption.

Observers believe that Kadhimi’s anti-corruption moves, at this particular time, are a prelude to his assumption of the premiership in the government, which the Sadrist movement is to form, despite the misgivings of the Shia forces loyal to Iran.

Antichrist defends Sunni and Kurdish allies after militia threats

Iraq’s Moqtada Al Sadr defends Sunni and Kurdish allies after militia threats

Since October’s national elections Shiite rivals have grown more divided, threatening to prolong process for forming new government

Iraq’s powerful Shiite cleric Moqtada Al Sadr has pitted himself further against his Iran-backed Shiite rivals amid rising tension over forming a new government.

Since October’s national elections Shiite rivals have grown more divided, with the Sadrist Bloc emerging as the clear winner while Iran-backed factions suffered a significant drop in support.

These rifts deepened when Mr Al Sadr joined forces with Sunni and Kurdish parties to pick the parliament speaker and his deputies during the first session after the elections.

The move angered the pro-Iran camp, which includes influential Shiite militias who boycotted the session, and they issued threats against Sunnis and Kurds.

“We will not allow anyone, whomever he is, to threaten our partners and the social peace,” Mr Al Sadr said in a statement posted on his Twitter account late on Tuesday, referring to his Sunni and Kurdish allies.

“There will be no return to the sectarian violence and warfare,” he said, in a reference to the sectarian tit-for-tat attacks that engulfed the country in 2005 and 2006. His now-disbanded Mahdi Army militia were blamed for playing a major role in the civil conflict.

“The next government will be one of law and there will be no place for any violation from anyone,” he said.

Mr Al Sadr’s political group won 73 seats in October national elections, becoming the clear winner, but fell short of gaining the majority — 165 seats in the 329-seat parliament — needed to form the government.

Former prime minister Nouri Al Maliki, who heads the State of Law bloc, won 33 seats, and the Iran-backed Fatah Alliance won 17.

For months, Mr Al Sadr and the Iran-allied Co-ordination Framework have failed to reach a deal.

The long-running dispute between Mr Al Sadr and Mr Al Maliki is one of the main obstacles to any deal, as the Shiite cleric seeks to exclude his rival from the next government. Their enmity dates back to 2008, when Mr Al Maliki launched a military operation against the Mahdi Army.

In his statement, Mr Al Sadr struck a defiant tone.

“We are proceeding with the formation of the national majority government and our door is open for some of those we still think well of,” he said, referring to other members of the Co-ordination Framework he has been wooing.

During the first session of parliament on Sunday, which was chaired by the eldest member of the legislative body, Mahmoud Al Mashhadani, both rival Shiite groups claimed to be the largest bloc.

According to the constitution, the largest bloc will be asked to form the government.

Mr Al Mashhadani asked to check the names and the signatures on both lists with a committee, causing chaos inside the hall and leading to a heated discussion between him and some Shiite politicians who gathered around him.

He then appeared to faint and was taken out of the parliament building for treatment, disrupting the session. But proceedings later resumed with the second oldest member, Khalid Al Daraji, and the Parliament Speaker and his two deputies were elected, resulting in MPs from the Co-ordination Framework walking out in a protest against the move.

On Monday, Alia Nussayif, a senior member of the State of Law, held Sunnis and Kurds accountable for creating “a rift among the Shiites.”

In an interview with a local TV station affiliated to a powerful pro-Tehran Shiite militia, Ms Nussayif went further, warning them that the “fire will catch them” if confrontations among Shiites erupted.

Hours later, Abu Ali Al Askari, a spokesman for the Iran-backed Kataeb Hezbollah armed group, issued a warning that “Iraq could see tough days and all will lose”.

The elections last October were the fifth parliamentary vote for a full-term government since the 2003 US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein.

They were held months earlier than scheduled to try to appease the pro-reform protest movement that surfaced in 2019.

Updated: January 12th 2022, 6:47 AM

The Hypocrisy of the Antichrist

Sadr denounces militias, sectarian government ahead of first parliament meeting

yesterday at 09:53

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region — Iraq’s influential Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr on Saturday again denounced the prevalence of militias in the country and called for a united government ahead of the new parliament’s first session.

“Today, there is no place for sectarianism and no room for racism,” reads a statement from Sadr, whose political bloc won 73 seats, the largest number, in Iraq’s October parliamentary election. 

“There is no place for militias, for everyone will support the army, and police, and security forces,” the cleric, who himself founded the active militia Saraya al-Salam, added. 

Sadr’s statement comes a day ahead of the new parliament’s first sitting, where members will be sworn in, and parties are set to elect the parliamentary speaker and its deputies. 

Early elections were called in response to mass protests in the country beginning in October 2019, caused by widespread dissatisfaction with Iraq’s politicians and endemic corruption in the country. 

Sadr, winning the largest parliamentary bloc, has previously expressed opposition towards militias, and has called for having the state control arms. 

The Sadrist bloc has also begun efforts to establish a cabinet containing the election’s largest winners. A delegation from the Sadrist bloc met with Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) leader Masoud Barzani in Erbil on Tuesday, discussing the October 10 elections and the formation of a new government for Iraq.  

According to a long standing agreement, the three main positions in Iraq are divided among Kurds, Shiites, and Sunnis. Whereas, Kurds get the presidency, Shiites get the premiership, and Sunnis get the parliamentary speaker. 

According to Article 54 of the Iraqi constitution, when the election results are confirmed, it sets in motion a process for the winning parties to form a government. Within 15 days of the ratification of the results, the president calls on the parliament to meet, chaired by its eldest member, and elect a speaker and two deputies by an absolute majority during its first session according to Article 55. The parliament also elects a president from among candidates by a two-thirds majority.  

The president then tasks the largest bloc in the parliament with forming the government, naming a prime minister within 15 days of the election of the president. The prime minister-elect then has 30 days to name a cabinet.

Chaldeans receive a delegation from the Antichrist

ASIA/IRAQ – Chaldean Patriarch Sako receives a delegation from the Muqtada al Sadr Movement

Baghdad (Agenzia Fides) – Yesterday, Tuesday, January 4th, the Patriarch of the Chaldean Church, Cardinal Louis Raphael Sako, received a delegation from the movement of Muktada al-Sadr from Karkh, a district of the Iraqi capital west of the Tigris, at his residence in Baghdad. This was reported by official sources of the Chaldean Patriarchate and added that the representatives of the political party, led by the Shiite leader Muktada al-Sadr, conveyed their New Year’s greetings to the Patriarch, stating that the conversation between the delegates and the Primate of the Chaldean Church would focus on the general situation in the country and the next stages of the political and legal development, which is being pushed forward at the behest of the political movement, in order to return to the rightful Christian owners real estate – houses and land – to the legitimate Christian owners – which in recent years had been illegally stolen from them by individuals and organized groups.
The meeting between the Chaldean Patriarch and the exponents of the Sadrist movement acquires significance in the light of the delicate political-institutional phase Iraq finds itself.
On December 27, the Iraqi Supreme Court rejected the appeals presented by some Shiite political forces believed to be pro-Iranian and contested the results of the October 10 parliamentary elections. The ruling of the Supreme Court finally confirmed the electoral success of the Muktada al-Sadr movement, which will occupy 73 of the 329 available seats in parliament. The Fatah Alliance, in which the Shiite parties that objected to the election result have joined forces, will only have 17 seats (compared to 48 members in the previous parliamentary assembly). On the last day of 2021, Iraqi President Barham Salih convened the first session of the new parliament, in which MEPs must elect the President of the Parliamentary Assembly, two vice-presidents and form the political groups. The new MPs must elect the new President of the Republic within 30 days of taking office and the new Prime Minister within the next 15 days.
In the new political scenario of Iraq, the balance of power in parliament also confirms the new meaning of the Shiite leader Muktada al-Sadr, who is also known as the founder of the Mahdi Army, a militia that – officially dissolved in 2008 – was founded in 2003 to support the foreign armed forces who were present in Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime. Analysts have seen several changes over the past decade in the leader who dissolved his militia in 2008 and does not appear to be allied with Iran. In the past, Muktada al-Sadr went so far as to call for an end to the “quota system” which, since the death of Saddam Hussein, has placed the administration of power in Iraq on a sectarian basis. In the country upset in recent years by the jihadist offensive, by the proclamation of the Islamic Caliphate with a strategic base in Mosul and by the coexistence of various and potentially rival forces on the heterogeneous front that led to the reconquest of almost all the areas that had fallen into the hands of the militias jihadists, Muqtada al Sadr tried to profile himself as a potential mediator. His visit to Saudi Arabia in July 2017 to meet Prince Mohammed bin Salman was also interpreted in this perspective.
Exactly one year ago (see Fides, 4/1/2021), Muqtada al Sadr ordered the creation of a Committee to collect and verify news and complaints regarding cases of illegal expropriation of real estate suffered in recent years by Christian owners in various regions of the country.
The communiqué that started the campaign named the names of the Muktada al-Sadr employees who were selected as members of the committee, as well as the email addresses and Whatsapp accounts to which Christian owners had been betrayed and property documents relating to real estate – Houses and land – illegally confiscated from individuals or clans in recent years.
The initiative of the Sadrist Movement, (see Fides, 25/11/2021), triggered a singular competition between antagonist political blocs, intent on competing for the flag of forces “protecting” the interests of Christian citizens and their property rights. On Monday, November 22, Judge Faiq Zidan, President of the Supreme Judicial Council – the highest administrative body of the ordinary judiciary – had received a delegation from the “Bablonia Movement”, a political group considered close to the pro-Iranian Shiite parties, which in the elections of the October 10 has obtained four of the five seats reserved for parliamentarians of Christian faith. The delegation included Ryan al-Kildani, general secretary of the movement, and Evan Faeq Yakoub Jabro, former Minister for refugees and migration in the outgoing government of Mustafa al Kadhimi. The meeting also discussed issues related to real estate owned by Christian owners and the steps to be taken to protect their property rights. (GV) (Agenzia Fides, 5/1/2022)

Attacks On Babylon the Great Forces In Syria, Iraq Continue

US forces in Syria photographed on June 14, 2021

Attacks On US Forces In Syria, Iraq Continue Amid Iran Nuclear Talks

1/5/20222 minutes

Author: Iran International Newsroom

Attacks on American troops stationed in Iraq and Syria in recent days, attributed to Iran-backed militia forces, came as the nuclear talks in Vienna were making some progress.

US officials in recent weeks had warned that they expected more attacks against US forces in Iraq and Syria, in part because of the second anniversary of the killing of top Iranian general Qasem Soleimani.

Soleimani who was Iran’s top military and intelligence operator in the Middle East, organizing anti-American and anti-Israeli militant groups, was killed by a targeted US drone strike on January 3, 2020, directly ordered by former US president Donald Trump.

Two explosive-laden drones were shot down on Tuesday by Iraq’s air defenses as they approached the Ain al-Asad air base, which hosts US forces, west of Baghdad, an official of the US-led international military coalition said.

A similar attack was foiled on Monday, when Iraqi air defenses downed two drones as they approached a base hosting US forces near Baghdad’s international airport.

Separately, another coalition official told Reuters that the coalition had carried out strikes against an “imminent threat” after they saw several rocket launch sites near the Green Village in Syria.

While this official did not say which country in the coalition carried out the strikes or who was responsible for the launch sites, Iranian-backed militia groups have occasionally targeted US forces in both Iraq and Syria.

In Washington, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby refused to say that the latest attacks were tied to Iran, but said they follow a pattern of attacks that were carried out by Iranian networks in the past. 

“I’m not in a position now to get into specific attribution. That said, we continue to see threats against our forces in Iraq and Syria by militia groups that are backed by Iran,” Kirby told reporters.

He also said the coalition strikes in Syria were not carried out by aircraft but did not provide more details on the threat.

The attacks came as nuclear talks continued with Iran in Vienna that seem to be making some progress. Critics of the talks to restore the 2015 nuclear agreement known as JCPOA say that even if negotiations prove successful they would not impact Iran’s agressive behavior in the region and its network of militant proxies.

Iranian threats of revenge and retribution increased in the past one week as Soleimani’s death anniversary approached. Both Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and hardliner president Ebrahim Raisi warned that those involved in the Soleimani’s killing must be held responsible.

“If Trump and (former Secretary of State Mike) Pompeo are not tried in a fair court for the criminal act of assassinating General Soleimani, Muslims will take our martyr’s revenge,” Raisi said in a televised speech on Monday.

The United States is leading the international military coalition fighting Islamic State militants in Iraq and in Syria.

There are roughly 900 U.S. troops in Syria and another 2,500 in Iraq.

With reporting by Reuters

Antichrist’s men discuss formation of new Iraqi government with KDP leader

 

Sadrist bloc discusses formation of new Iraqi government with KDP leader

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region – A delegation from the Sadrist bloc met with the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) leader Masoud Barzani in Erbil on Tuesday, discussing the October 10 elections and the formation of a new government for Iraq, according to Barzani’s office.  

“They talked about the political process in Iraq, election results and the efforts to hold the first meeting of the Iraqi parliament and the formation of a new Iraqi government,” read a statement from Barzani’s office. Both sides emphasized on overcoming challenges in the country as well as the resolution of Erbil-Baghdad issues, it added. 

Hassan al-Athari, head of the bloc, led the delegation. 

“They [Sadrist bloc] believe that the next government should be different from the previous ones which were formed based on consensus. They think that some of the winners who have gained most of the seats should form the [new] cabinet while some others remain as opposition,” Mahmoud Mohammed, KDP spokesperson, later told Rudaw’s Hawraz Gulpi. 

Muqtada al-Sadr, leader of the Sadrist movement, has emphasized several times that he wants a “national-majority” cabinet. 

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1478303607720185857&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rudaw.net%2Fenglish%2Fkurdistan%2F040120221&sessionId=f2f8d448021c6e0648fbad8f02e0b0c1c20076ed&theme=light&widgetsVersion=9fd78d5%3A1638479056965&width=550pxThe Sadrist bloc, which gained 73 seats out of the legislature’s 329 seats in the parliamentary election, has begun efforts to establish a cabinet that consists of the main winners of the vote.  
Shiite parties have been divided into two blocks: Sadrists and Coordination Framework. Kurds have said they will not be part of disputes between both sides. 

The October 10 vote’s controversial results were ratified by the Federal Supreme Court late December, ending months of disputes over the final results and paved the way for the political parties to hold further meetings to negotiate the formation of a new cabinet.  

KDP, which had gained 33 seats in the initial results, lost two seats to the PUK when the final results were announced. This increased PUK’s seats from 15 to 17 but a Kurdish winning candidate, who won a seat in Kirkuk, has announced she is affiliated to the party as well.

The Kurdistan Region’s both ruling parties, KDP and PUK, have already held several meetings with Iraqi political parties regarding Iraq’s new cabinet.

Both parties will meet on Wednesday. They have announced that they will negotiate the formation of a new cabinet in Baghdad with Iraqi political parties as one team. 

The KDP spokesperson said on Tuesday that they have a joint agenda with PUK which could be finalized during Wednesday’s meeting. Mohammed also said that KDP and PUK have agreed that “this cabinet should have real partnership for the [ethnic and religious] groups in Iraq,” adding that these parties should be considered in decision making. 

Kurds have been kingmakers regarding the formation of a number of Iraqi cabinets in the past.

US conducts strikes against Iran after indirect fire threatens troops

 

US conducts strikes in Syria after indirect fire threatens troops

21 hrs 8 mins agoBy Barbara Starr and Oren Liebermann, CNN

The US military conducted strikes in Syria after indirect fire posed what a US-led coalition official called “an imminent threat” to troops near Green Village, a base in the east of the country near the Iraqi border.While the US is not officially confirming it conducted the strikes, a defense official with direct knowledge noted that only US forces in that area have weapons capable of carrying out these kinds of strikes.Preliminary assessments have concluded the strikes destroyed the seven Katyusha rocket sites they were targeting.”Indirect fire attacks pose a serious threat to innocent civilians because of their lack of discrimination,” the Operation Inherent Resolve official said in a statement.Operation Inherent Resolve is the US-led coalition to counter ISIS in Syria and Iraq.Although there was no specific attribution for the indirect fire, Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said the US continues to see threats against US forces in the region from Iranian-backed militias.”In just the last few days, there have been acts perpetrated by some of these groups that validate the consistent concerns that we’ve had over the safety and security of our people,” Kirby said at a news briefing Tuesday.Earlier Tuesday, the US shot down two drones as they approached Ain al-Asad Air Base in Iraq, according to the Iraqi Prime Minister’s Office. It is the same base targeted by Iranian missiles two years ago after the US assassination of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Gen. Qasem Soleimani.Though officials have not said whether they believe these recent attacks are related to the killing of Soleimani, the two-year anniversary of his death was this past weekend.nullTensions are also high as sensitive negotiationscontinue in Vienna, Austria, on the future of the Iran nuclear deal.US and coalition forces in the region have come under repeated attack from drones and indirect fire for months.On Sunday, an area near Baghdad airport where US forces are located was the target of a failed attack.In October, a “deliberate and coordinated” attack using multiple drones targeted US forces at the At-Tanf base in Syria near the borders with Iraq and Jordan.The US maintains approximately 900 troops in Syria, largely split between At-Tanf and Green Village.At the beginning of the year, US forces operating in Iraq transition from a military role to an advise and assist mission, helping the Iraqi government in its effort to root out and eliminate the last remnants of ISIS.”We don’t stay at this mission … this new mission … with any illusions that our people are under any less threat by these militia groups,” Kirby said. “We’re going to stay focused on that threat as we stay focused on the mission at hand and make sure that we’re doing everything we can to protect our people.”The-CNN-Wire
™ & © 2022 Cable News Network, Inc., a WarnerMedia Company. All rights reserved.

Iraq confirms that the Antichrist is ruler

Followers of Muqtada al-Sadr celebrated in Baghdad in October after initial results of Iraq’s parliamentary elections.Khalid Mohammed/Associated Press

Iraq Confirms Election Gains for Shiite Leader Seen as Potential U.S. Ally

A court certified October’s parliamentary vote that gave Muqtada al-Sadr’s party a plurality of seats, clearing a path for a government to be formed.

Dec. 27, 2021

Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court on Monday upheld the results of the country’s October parliamentary elections, resolving a dispute that had stalled the formation of a new government as Iran-backed Shiite Muslim militias contested gains by a rival Shiite political bloc.

The Antichrist: The Chess Master

Sadr will need to play chess to form Iraq’s government

Shia leader Moqtada al Sadr has the numerical advantage to control the formation of government, but it requires juggling several moving pieces.

Despite two months passing since the election in Iraq, no significant progress has been made towards forming government. The Sadrist Bloc, led by firebrand Shia leader Moqtada Al Sadr, claimed victory by securing 73 seats, while the pro-Iran Fatah Alliance obtained only 17 seats of 329-seat-parliament. 

Sadr wants to establish a “national majority government” – a bloc must have over half of seats in parliament – calling on Iran-backed militias to disarm if they want to join. 

Pro-Iranians support a “consensus government” in which most parties will be included and government members would be responsible to their leaders first, then to the prime minister. Fears about the exclusion of pro-Iranians from the new government is deepening uncertainty.

In the new order established in Iraq after 2003, Shias – almost 60 percent of the population – are the primary decision makers in politics. 

Along with the ethnic and sectarian quota system, the presidency was allocated to the Kurds, the prime ministry to the Shia and the position of parliament speaker to the Sunnis. 

The allocation of the executive position to Shia leaders opens up space for Iran in Iraqi politics. While governments are headed by Shias, the laws give the task of forming the government primarily to the largest bloc.

Sadr is committed to forming a “national majority government” that is also compatible with his “nationalist agenda,” which goes against both Iranian domination and the US presence. 

The Taqaddum Coalition and Azm Alliance have already agreed to form a Sunni bloc that is expected to support Sadr. Along with Sunnis, support of the Kurdish party KDP, which secured 31 seats, gives Sadr enough of a majority to form the government. 

The potential support of another Kurdish party, the PUK, which has 17 seats, would further strengthen Sadr’s hand. Some smaller Shia groups and the Iraqi Turkmen Front are also likely to join Sadr’s majority government. In that scenario, pro-Iranian groups could be completely excluded from government.

Consensus?

National consensus governments, since 2005, have corrupted the domestic political system and allowed for outsized Iranian influence in Iraq. The government that Sadr established with pro-Iranians in 2018 was overthrown after mass protests against corruption and Iranian influence. 

Pro-Iranian militias were condemned for their brutality resulting in the deaths of 600 protesters. Because of growing Iranian influence and domestic opposition to consensus governments, Sadr has no intention of establish such a government even if it means he sits in the opposition. 

Sadr’s scepticism towards the Iran-backed Fatah Alliance is no secret. Aware of the discord, Fatah sued to have the election annulled and pressured the Independent High Electoral Commission through militias they control.

Pro-Iranians in power

If Sadr’s national majority government plan fails, Sadr may abandon negotiations and claim leadership of the opposition. Considering the frequent negotiations that Sadr has been involved in – and the promotion of him as the ‘saviour’ of the country – this option might be difficult. Given his unexpected u-turns, such as boycotting elections and then taking part, Sadr might opt to sit in opposition.

In a scenario where Sadr is in opposition, pro-Iranians will rise to power, with Kurds and Sunnis most likely joining the government. Sunnis and Kurds will not adopt a definitive stance as they will watch the competition between the Shias. 

While the new Sunni leaders are very pragmatic and have close ties to Iran, the Kurds are generally focused on being government stakeholders.

However, Sadr’s position in the opposition will lead to frequent protests against the government, considering his power to mobilise large numbers. Such a scenario may create a military confrontation with pro-Iranian militias and harm the fragile security in Iraq. This could translate into a more influential Iran, while space for Turkey and the Gulf narrows even further.

The superiority of Sadr

The most difficult option remains voiding elections. Due to the Fatah Alliance’s lawsuit for the annulment of the election results, the process of government formation, which needs the approval of Supreme Federal Court, could not start. 

The court is expected to announce its decision in the coming days. In the event of an annulment, the reputation of pro-Iranian groups will be further damaged in the eyes of Iraqis, and Sadr’s approach towards these groups will become harsher.

Sadr is well aware of his mathematical superiority. Therefore, he wants to establish a government within the framework he desires. A majority government with Sunnis and Kurds is the most likely option, but the exclusion of pro-Iranians may increase the potential for violence.

Iran won’t stand by and watch its power wane after the boost it received from the US withdrawal.

Due to the possibility of losing its gains in Iraq, Iran may be obliged to encourage its proxies to join Sadr’s government even with weakened representation. 

It can be expected that Iran may become more flexible due to its economic crisis and the ongoing negotiations regarding the nuclear deal. In this context, without compromising his role as a ‘saviour’, Sadr could try to form government by giving pro-Iranian groups limited space that he can still control. 

Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints and editorial policies of TRT World.

We welcome all pitches and submissions to TRT World Opinion – please send them via email, to opinion.editorial@trtworld.com

AUTHORMehmet Alacamehmtalaca

Mehmet Alaca is an academic researcher focusing on Iraq, regional Kurdish politics, and Shia militias in the Middle East. He is currently an Ankara-based diplomatic correspondent and a non-resident fellow at Center for Middle Eastern Studies (ORSAM). Mehmet holds an MA from the Department of Politics and International Relations of the Middle East at Exeter University in the United Kingdom.