Expected Shiite victory in Tikrit seen as cementing Iran’s influence in Iraq
The
forces that appeared to have cornered the last Islamic State fighters
in central Tikrit are dominated by Iranian military advisers, Shiite
militias are all Iranian trained, and the offensive is being directed by
Iran’s most influential general, Qasem Soleimani.
But
the seemingly certain triumph of a force with little Sunni Muslim
participation in the center of Iraq’s Sunni heartland has raised another
troubling issue: the extension of Iran’s influence in a country where
the Shiite Muslim neighbor is already the most significant outside
player.
The
forces that appeared Thursday to have cornered the last Islamic State
fighters in central Tikrit are dominated by Iranian military advisers.
The Iraqi Shiite militias are all Iranian trained. And
the offensive is being directed on the ground by Iran’s most
influential general, Qasem Soleimani, who has been a thorn in U.S.
efforts to pacify Iraq since the early days of the U.S. occupation of
Iraq.
To
add to American unease, there are credible reports that Iranian troops
and fighters from Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement are participating in the
Tikrit operation, and other reports that the Shiite militias and even
U.S.-trained Iraqi troops have engaged in retaliatory attacks against
Sunni residents. Those reports have convinced many Sunnis that the
long-frayed relationship between Iraq’s Sunni and Shiite sects is
completely broken.
The
offensive, which is said to involve as many as 30,000 fighters, is the
government’s largest offensive to date against the Islamic State group,
the Sunni Muslim extremists who swept through much of Iraq’s Sunni
heartland in northern and western Iraq last year, often with the support
of area residents.
Although
government accounts Thursday suggested that much of Tikrit was under
the control of security forces, there was no independent corroboration
of the reported advances in Tikrit, 80 miles north of Baghdad, the
capital.
The military campaign has generated criticism. “It’s a Persian-led invasion of the Sunni triangle,” said
one prominent leader of a Sunni tribe who fled Baghdad and the Islamic
State group for the safety of the Kurdish capital, Irbil. “We see
Iranian troops and generals leading the fighting and the only Iraqi army
units — which once represented all Iraqis — now only represent the
Shiite parties and their Iranian leadership.”
He asked not to be identified because of fears he could be targeted by both sides of the increasingly bitter conflict.
“Daash
is a poison to all Muslims, but the Persians have become a cancer to
Iraq,” he said, using the Arabic acronym for the Islamic State group.
Then, referring to the eight-year war Iraq under Saddam fought against
Iran in the 1980s, he summed up: “What they could not do in the 1980s
they have done now with American help, which is enslave Iraq.”
The
tribal leader said tens of thousands of Sunnis have offered to help the
central government in Baghdad fight the Islamic State group, but that
the government of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, a Shiite, has rejected
requests for arms from the Sunni tribes.
Even
populist Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, whose Mahdi Army battled U.S.
troops throughout the U.S. occupation, has refused to allow his militia
to join the Tikrit operation because of what he claims is a constant
pattern of innocent Sunnis being murdered or abused by other Shiite
militias and the security forces. He’s been a vocal advocate for a
government investigation into allegations of abuse.
But
in Iraq’s tribal culture, the abuses of the Islamic State group, most
famously with the execution in Tikrit of at least 1,000 Shiite air force
cadets and soldiers, are likely to make such an investigation
impossible. The past becomes prologue as partisans recall events dating
back decades, including the aftermath of the 1990-91 Gulf War, when
Shiites rose up after U.S. troops expelled Iraq’s army from Kuwait, only
to discover the Americans unwilling to join their assault on Saddam.
“Blood
for blood,” said Abu Barazan, a Sunni from Tikrit who fled the fighting
for the safety of Irbil last month. “Saddam crushed the Shiites in
1991, so when the Americans crushed Saddam it was the Shiites’ turn to
take Baghdad. And, of course, they did it with Iran’s help then as they
do with Iran’s help today. Any Sunni support for the Islamic State was
revenge for the behavior of the Shiites toward the Sunnis after the
Americans came, and now we see the Shiite taking their revenge.”
Inside
Tikrit, the operation appeared to be slowly drawing to a conclusion,
although the lack of any real Sunni tribal support is likely to make it
difficult for the Shiite militias to establish true authority over an
area that, like much of the Middle East, tends to prefer to be policed
by locals well-known to the community.
Col.
Salah al-Obeidi, a special-operations commander in the Salahuddin
Operations Center that oversees the Tikrit operation, said in an
interview that Iraqi forces had pushed into the city center from the
south and the west, trapping the remnants of the Islamic State group
inside the city against the Tigris River. Still, he said, the risk from
roadside bombs, snipers and suicide bombers had slowed their progress.
The
United States has remained on the sidelines. No U.S. plane has flown a
combat mission in support of the push, though the Iraqi air force has
flown more than 1,300 helicopter gunship and air-support missions in the
past two weeks, al-Obeidi said.
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