Why Pakistan Is The Third Nuclear Horn (Dan 8:8)

Pakistan’s Nuclear programme prone to security risks: US Report

NEW DELHI: A report on Pakistan’s tactical nuclear programme by a prominent Washington-based think tank raises questions on the country’s ability to secure warheads even in peacetime, concluding that the introduction of mini nuclear weapons in the subcontinent has substantially increased the risk of a confrontation with India getting out of hand.

The report comes even as Pakistan’s Strategic Plans Division (SPD) that oversees its nuclear programme has admitted to having fired several people with “negative tendencies”. Pakistan-based Dawn newspaper has quoted  Brig Tahir Raza Naqvi as saying that those sacked were “incorrigible” and could have affected national security. The US report titled ‘Pakistan’s Tactical Nuclear Weapons: Operational Myths and Realities’ has, however, raised the larger question of the implication of battlefield nuclear weapons in the subcontinent. Unlike strategic warheads that are capable of obliterating a large landmass, tactical nuclear weapons like the Nasr missile that Pakistan has introduced are aimed as battlefield weapons directed against troops or armoured formations.

The Pakistani logic is that nuclear weapons can be used in a battlefield without collateral civilian damage and that would make them more “acceptable” than a strike on a major city or power centre. The report by the  Stimson Center says that the “presence of tactical nuclear weapons will naturally result in increased pressure on both India and Pakistan to escalate during any future crisis”.

For India, Pakistan’s tactical programme spells a double whammy. The current Indian doctrine calls for a massive retaliation in case of a nuclear strike on home territory. However, dealing with a limited nuclear strike on a troop formation with a massive and debilitating strike across the border with possible high civilian loss could be difficult to justify, even though India has reiterated that it will not differentiate between a strategic or tactical nuclear weapon.

The larger worry, though, is over the security of the tactical nuclear warheads, which, by their very nature are to be deployed on the battlefield where the risk of a breach is higher. “Pakistan might also reconsider the practical and operational risks and challenges with regard to tactical nuclear weapons, particularly the difference in risk profiles between a small number of systems and widespread numbers readied for deployment,” the Stimson report notes.