Iran’s Influence in Iraq Deeper Than Assumed
On the battlefield, Iran is helping Iraq push out Sunni-dominated Islamic State extremists from key northern cities. Trade
between Iraq and Iran flows easily over the border. And Tehran has
permeated deeply into Baghdad's security and intelligence structures.
Maria
Fantappie, senior Iraq analyst for the International Crisis Group, says
Iran’s strong sway over the Iraqi Shi’ite militias, and their likely
leadership role in re-establishing basic services such as electricity
and water as Islamic State militants retreat, risks weakening the Iraqi
government’s already fragile control over its own territory.
But
Iran's influence, Fantappie says, stretches much further than that: it
is changing the very character of the Iraqi nation and as a result, the
power dynamics in the region.
“It’s
enough to have a tour of the streets of Baghdad, to see pictures of the
[Iranian] Supreme Leader Khameini posted everywhere, and often now the
Iraqi national flag is often showed besides another flag which is that
one of Hussein, which is a reference to the Shia identity. Although this
does not refer strictly to Iran, it is a direct consequence of Iran’s
peaking role within Iraqi politics," she said.
Western
allies and Iran, who are in prolonged negotiations over Tehran’s
nuclear program, appear to have found common ground in fighting Islamic
State militants in Iraq, says Henry Smith, senior consultant for
Control Risks in the Middle East. The U.S. and its coalition partners
are assisting Iraqi ground forces with airstrikes in its battles against
the Islamic State, while Iran is providing supplies, arms, ammunition
and aircraft and leadership.
“In
the period in which Iran has been negotiating over its nuclear program
with the P5+1, you have also had a growing implicit acceptance of the
fact that Iran [has] a key role in some of the key security issues in
the Middle East," said Smith.
But
videos have emerged of the government-backed Shi’ite militias
committing atrocities in Sunni communities. Islamic State militants have
capitalized on Sunni anger with the sectarian policies of successive
Baghdad governments.
University
of Maryland researcher Phillip Smyth warns that Iran’s ever-stronger
presence will exacerbate Iraq’s Sunni-Shi’ite sectarian divide and make
it harder to form an effective inclusive government.
“Many
of these groups are going into Sunni areas and putting power drills
through people’s heads," said Smyth. "They are a highly sectarian
organization, so you can’t really deny that they are actually part of
the cause for the crisis we are facing now.”
But Henry Smith of Control Risks, says Tehran wants a stable Iraq where it can extend its sphere of influence.
“There
is a bit of a balance there," he said. "Iran wants to have a government
in Baghdad which is compliant and in line with Iran’s strategic
thinking, both in Iraq and the broader region, but it also doesn’t want a
country that is essentially slipping out of control.”
For American policy makers, there is no clear solution.
They are faced at home with a nation tired of war and endless years of
expensive reconstruction, and a choice between Iran or the Islamic State
gaining strategic ground in Iraq.
But as U.S. policy makers wait, Fantappie says, Iran is taking over Iraq’s own security structure.
“It’s
a wait and see attitude. It’s a wish of not involving into the
restructuring of the state, but it’s also in a way a complete detachment
from the full erosion of a state,” she said.
With
Iraq’s weak government and tenuous control over tens of thousands of
armed Shi’ite militia fighters, Iran will likely continue to play a
crucial role in the country’s security. The question remains as to
whether Tehran will turn out to be a long-term stabilizing influence or a
potential source of even greater instability.
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