WORLD VIEW: REPORT: IRAN’S SUPREME LEADER HAS ALREADY VETOED ANY NUCLEAR DEAL
by JOHN J. XENAKIS Mar 2015
A report in Debka’s subscriber-only newsletter (sent to me by a subscriber) says that its intelligence sources have learned that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, after vacillating over the nuclear negotiations with the United States for months, has now come down firmly against any deal. Secretary of State John Kerry and Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohamed Javad Zarif have been working to complete a deal by the March 31 deadline, but Khamenei has now rejected the entire framework that they were developing. The intelligence sources say that Iran may shut down nuclear negotiations completely, unless the West first removes all sanctions, a request that will not be satisfied.
A major reason given is that dissent within Iran itself has been increasing. The dissent is spilling over from government critics to broad sections of Iranian society, such as academics and op-ed writers.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, none of this is surprising. As I have said many times, it is a core principle of generational theory that, even in a dictatorship, major decisions are made by masses of people, by generations of people, and that politicians are irrelevant except insofar as they are implementing the wishes of the masses of people.
This is a good time to review Iran’s strategy with regard to the nuclear issue, which I have stated many times in the last few years, based on a relatively straightforward analysis of Iran’s history in the last century.
First, Iran will not be prevented from developing a nuclear weapon. Iran has already been victimized by Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction in the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, and is now surrounded by potential enemies — Pakistan, Russia, Israel — that have nuclear weapons, with Saudi Arabia planning to obtain nuclear technology from Pakistan. The Iranian people overwhelmingly feel that they need nuclear technology for self-defense.
Secondly, however, Iran has no intention at all of using a nuclear weapon on Israel. If you look at Iran’s major wars in the last century — the Constitutional Revolution of 1908-09, the Great Islamic Revolution of 1979, and the Iran/Iraq war that climaxed in 1989 — Iran did not attack any other nation, and takes pride in not having done so.
Another reason why Iran could not use a nuclear weapon on Israel is that doing so would kill millions of Palestinians, and Iran knows that the Arab backlash would be enormous, irrespective of what happened to Israel.
Furthermore, the younger generations of Iranians, the ones that grew up after the war, do not hate Israel, and do not wish Israel harm, and they would be particularly opposed to any Iranian nuclear attack on Israel.
The collapse of the Iran nuclear negotiations would be a major blow for the Barack Obama administration. The foreign policy of Obama and his clownish Secretary of State John Kerry has been one blunder and reversal after another, and they were hoping for a nuclear deal to burnish their legacies, and possibly to get Nobel Peace Prizes as a result. Look for them to blame it on the Republicans, but preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon was never a possibility.
By the way, Debka is also predicting that Benjamin Netanyahu’s defeat in Tuesday’s election is a foregone conclusion, and that unless something spectacular happens, Israel’s next prime minister will be Yitzhak Herzog.
by JOHN J. XENAKIS Mar 2015
A report in Debka’s subscriber-only newsletter (sent to me by a subscriber) says that its intelligence sources have learned that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, after vacillating over the nuclear negotiations with the United States for months, has now come down firmly against any deal. Secretary of State John Kerry and Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohamed Javad Zarif have been working to complete a deal by the March 31 deadline, but Khamenei has now rejected the entire framework that they were developing. The intelligence sources say that Iran may shut down nuclear negotiations completely, unless the West first removes all sanctions, a request that will not be satisfied.
A major reason given is that dissent within Iran itself has been increasing. The dissent is spilling over from government critics to broad sections of Iranian society, such as academics and op-ed writers.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, none of this is surprising. As I have said many times, it is a core principle of generational theory that, even in a dictatorship, major decisions are made by masses of people, by generations of people, and that politicians are irrelevant except insofar as they are implementing the wishes of the masses of people.
This is a good time to review Iran’s strategy with regard to the nuclear issue, which I have stated many times in the last few years, based on a relatively straightforward analysis of Iran’s history in the last century.
First, Iran will not be prevented from developing a nuclear weapon. Iran has already been victimized by Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction in the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, and is now surrounded by potential enemies — Pakistan, Russia, Israel — that have nuclear weapons, with Saudi Arabia planning to obtain nuclear technology from Pakistan. The Iranian people overwhelmingly feel that they need nuclear technology for self-defense.
Secondly, however, Iran has no intention at all of using a nuclear weapon on Israel. If you look at Iran’s major wars in the last century — the Constitutional Revolution of 1908-09, the Great Islamic Revolution of 1979, and the Iran/Iraq war that climaxed in 1989 — Iran did not attack any other nation, and takes pride in not having done so.
Another reason why Iran could not use a nuclear weapon on Israel is that doing so would kill millions of Palestinians, and Iran knows that the Arab backlash would be enormous, irrespective of what happened to Israel.
Furthermore, the younger generations of Iranians, the ones that grew up after the war, do not hate Israel, and do not wish Israel harm, and they would be particularly opposed to any Iranian nuclear attack on Israel.
The collapse of the Iran nuclear negotiations would be a major blow for the Barack Obama administration. The foreign policy of Obama and his clownish Secretary of State John Kerry has been one blunder and reversal after another, and they were hoping for a nuclear deal to burnish their legacies, and possibly to get Nobel Peace Prizes as a result. Look for them to blame it on the Republicans, but preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon was never a possibility.
By the way, Debka is also predicting that Benjamin Netanyahu’s defeat in Tuesday’s election is a foregone conclusion, and that unless something spectacular happens, Israel’s next prime minister will be Yitzhak Herzog.
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