Antichrist Soon To Lead Iraq Through Civil War (Rev 13:18)

Iraq’s popular protests are at risk of being hijacked
 
Protesters chant slogans in support of Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi during a rally in Tahrir Square in Baghdad. Khalid Mohammed / AP


Faisal Al Yafai Aug 31, 2015

In September 2014, the streets of Sanaa were convulsed by protests. The government of Abdrabu Mansour Hadi had reformed fuel subsidies, leading to a rise in petrol prices – and to thousands of protesters on the streets of the capital.

Within weeks, Sanaa had fallen to the Houthi rebels from the north. It was the mass protests by Yemenis of all political stripes against the rise in fuel subsidies that opened the door to the Houthi takeover of Sanaa and then to the group’s attempts to take over the entire country.

A similar window has just opened in Iraq. If Iraq’s government is not careful, it is possible that the popular anger of Iraqis could be hijacked for an assault on the state itself.

Iraqis today are justifiably angry. War and corruption have taken a brutal toll on daily life in the country. Large parts of the country are under the control of ISIL. But, as with Lebanon, it was something more prosaic, and thus essential, that pushed thousands to protest – a lack of electricity during the heat of summer.

Yemen was in this position last year. Popular protests started over something prosaic and vital, but were soon hijacked by Houthi rebels. Firstly speaking in the name of all Yemenis, the Houthis organised protest camps in the capital. It was only later that it became clear their real intention was not to change the subsidies law, but to change the government itself.

Here is the danger in Iraq. The protests in Iraq show no sign of abating. Even the announcement by Haider Al Abadi two weeks ago of widespread reforms has not calmed them – on the contrary, the protests have increased, offering support for Mr Al Abadi to push those reforms through.

But having raised the expectation of a swift resolution through far-reaching changes, it isn’t immediately obvious that Mr Al Abadi will be able to reform quickly enough to placate the Iraqi protesters.

Already, the situation in Iraq is escalating. Last Friday was the first time that supporters of Muqtada Al Sadr, a powerful Shia cleric, joined the protests. The protests in Baghdad swelled to be the biggest this summer, with Al Sadr supporters also rallying in Najaf and the southern port city of Basra.
The danger is that the entry of Al Sadr’s supporters (and members of his Al Sadr Brigades) could change the tone of the protests from being about Iraq as a whole to being merely about one sect.

At the moment, the protests have not been about sect, nor about political party, but about Iraq as a whole. The protesters have rallied in support of the prime minister, who is Shia, and have been supported by Ayatollah Ali Al Sistani, the country’s top Shia cleric. But the protests have not been sectarian.

The entry of Al Sadr raises the possibility that the protests could turn from supporting Mr Al Abadi to expressing anger against him, especially if reforms stall or face unexpected opposition. What happens then?

What happened in Yemen was that the Houthi rebels were able to piggyback on the genuine popular anger and argue that only by reforming Mr Hadi’s government could the necessary changes take place. “Reforming” soon became replacing, and eventually Mr Hadi was placed under house arrest, and the Houthis declared themselves in charge and launched an assault upon Aden.

None of that is inevitable. But a space in Iraq’s politics of protest has opened with the expansion of protests. Were the protests to turn confrontational or violent, the momentum of Mr Al Abadi’s administration would be sidetracked. The government’s attention, and that of the protesters, would then be taken up by the confrontations themselves, rather than on the reform package recently announced.

Unsurprisingly, the sidetracking of those reforms would be welcomed precisely by those who stand to lose – in particular former prime minister Nouri Al Maliki, who will lose his position as one of three vice-presidents.

Mr Al Maliki has also been named by an Iraqi report as a senior official who should stand trial over the loss of Mosul to ISIL last summer. Since it will be Mr Al Abadi, Mr Al Maliki’s rival for their political party, who has the power to enforce or ignore that report, it would clearly be in the interests of Mr Al Maliki to ensure the prime minister’s reforms are not carried out.

There is great anger in Iraq. As long as it remains focused on reforming Iraq’s political system, there is a chance those reforms will go through, even against the wishes of the dominant political class. But if that popular anger is sidetracked, the result could be worse than merely political inaction.
falyafai@thenational.ae

IAEA Only Reporting On CIVIL Nuclear Activity

Netanyahu throws cold water on IAEA report claiming Iran restraining its nuclear program


Jerusalem Post

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Friday accused Iran of concealing its plans to develop nuclear weapons, citing a report by the UN nuclear watchdog which credited Tehran with being in compliance with an agreement it struck with the Western powers.

The International Atomic Energy Agency said that Iran has refrained from expanding tests of more efficient models of a machine used to refine uranium under a nuclear agreement with six world powers, allaying concerns it might be violating the accord.

Netanyahu, however, released a statement insisting that the report indicates Iran continues to be engaged in obfuscation.

“The IAEA report again notes that Iran is refusing to reveal to the world its preparations for the production of nuclear weapons,” Netanyahu said. “Iran insists on hiding this from the international community at a time when the major powers are continuing to try and allow Iran to produce the core of such weapons, enriched uranium. These do not go together.”

“The major powers do not need to court Iran to agree to accept the possibility of producing nuclear weapons even as the latter refuses to divulge the details of the preparations for its nuclear weapons,” the prime minister said.

Tehran’s development of advanced centrifuges is sensitive because, if successful, it could enable it to produce potential nuclear bomb material at a rate several times that of the decades-old version of the machine now in use.

An interim accord in 2013 between Iran and the United States, France, Germany, Britain, China and Russia stipulated Tehran could continue its “current enrichment R&D (research and development) practices,” implying they should not be stepped up.

But a UN nuclear agency report in November said Iran had been feeding one of several new models under development, the so-called IR-5 centrifuge, with uranium gas, prompting a debate among analysts on whether this may have been a violation.

A confidential document by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), distributed among its member states on Thursday and obtained by Reuters, showed the IR-5 had been disconnected.
“The disconnection reflects Iran addressing concerns about its enrichment (of uranium),” said the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), which closely tracks Iran’s nuclear program.

“The disconnection provides additional confidence that Iran is abiding by its commitments under the Joint Plan of Action,” it said, referring to the 2013 agreement. Still, Iran has stalled the UN inquiry in other areas.

International talks are resuming in Geneva on Friday with the aim of narrowing remaining gaps in negotiations to end Iran’s 12-year standoff with the six powers.

The deal sought by the powers would have Iran accept limits to its uranium enrichment capacity and open up to unfettered IAEA inspections to help ensure it could not put its nuclear program to developing bombs. They also want Iran to resolve all IAEA questions to build trust in its nuclear aspirations.

In return, Iran would see a lifting of international trade and financial sanctions that hobbled its oil-based economy.

The IAEA document about the UN inquiry, which has run parallel to the big power talks, was issued to IAEA member states only weeks before a deadline in late March for a framework agreement between Iran and the powers. They have set themselves a deadline for a final deal at the end of June.

Russia Threatens To Turn Syria Into Iraq

Russian Interference In Syria

MOSCOW, May 19 (Xinhua) — Russia said Monday it was concerned that the situation in Syria may develop similarly to the Iraqi scenario, and called for a peaceful Mideast.

“Geopolitical situation in the Middle East has been influenced by many internal and external factors,” Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov said.

Russia warns of Iraq-like scenario for Syria, urges Mideast peace

Antonov noted that many Middle East countries have been on the brink of disintegration following the so-called “Arab Spring” revolutions which, in his opinion, have brought about stability and prosperity to no one.

He added that terrorism also remained an acute problem for that region.

“In some areas of the region there are a huge number of well-trained militants who can move to the other countries at any moment,” Antonov warned, adding that if the terrorists would seize weapons of mass destruction (WMD), it could evolve into a global crisis.

That was why all the countries are interested in predictable and peaceful development of the Middle East, Antonov said.

He hailed the ongoing work of the international community of removing chemical weapons from Syria, adding Russia supported the idea to declare entire Middle East a WMD-free zone.

“It is very much important that all Middle East countries to participate in all international conventions (regarding the WMD),” Antonov said, citing such ones as the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, conventions on the prohibition of chemical weapons and biological weapons.

He also urged all the countries of the region to put their nuclear facilities under control of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and to sign the Comprehensive nuclear tests ban treaty.