The Russian Horn Prepares To Strike Back At ISIS (Daniel 7:7)

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U.S. Spies Root for an ISIS-Russia War

Six U.S. intelligence and military officials tell The Daily Beast that they hope an apparent ISIS attack on Metrojet Flight 9268 would force Putin to finally take the gloves off.

In the days following the crash of Russian Metrojet Flight 9268, which mounting evidence suggests was felled by an ISIS bomb, many U.S. intelligence and security officials weren’t panicking about the so-called Islamic State unleashing a new campaign of attacks on civilian airliners. Instead, they were wondering how the bombing might hurt Vladimir Putin, and potentially help the United States.
Ever since Putin started dropping bombs on militants in Syria, officials have privately been arguing that the Russian leader committed a major strategic blunder, and that his intervention in Syria would weaken both his military and his reputation and likely ignite a backlash from Islamist militants, who have attacked inside Russia in the past.

One U.S. intelligence official, speaking prior to the airliner crash, called the Russian campaign in Syria “Putin’s folly.”

Now, six U.S. intelligence and military officials told The Daily Beast that they hoped an ISIS attack on Russian civilians would force Putin to finally take the gloves off and attack the group, which the U.S. has been trying to dislodge from Iraq and Syria for more than a year, without success.

“Now maybe they will start attacking [ISIS],” one senior defense official smugly wondered last week. “And stop helping them,” referring to ISIS gains in Aleppo that came, in part, because the group took advantage of Russian strikes on other rebels and militant outfits.

Since the plane crashed, Russia has struck two ISIS-controlled areas in Syria: Raqqa and Palmyra.
“I suppose now he’ll really let ISIS have it. This should be fun,” one senior intelligence official told The Daily Beast.

Some in the U.S. government are also wondering, in undeniably hopeful tones, if a terrorist attack will compel Putin to commit more military forces to Syria and thus draw him deeper into what the Obama administration calls a “quagmire.” Indeed, some privately delighted in the news that Russia was made to pay for its intervention in Syria. (ISIS had vowed to attack Russia after it began its airstrike campaign on behalf of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.)

While the American officials weren’t blithe about the loss of life—224 people died in the crash, most of them Russian vacationers—they said it could change the calculus in Syria in ways that ultimately benefit the United States. All the officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because they’re not authorized to comment publicly on the possible bombing.

President Obama has ordered 50 additional Special Forces personnel to Syria, to act in an advisory capacity. But Putin already has troops on the ground serving in combat positions. And Russia began a new round of airstrikes on ISIS positions in Raqqa on Friday, as officials in Moscow concluded that a bomb may have caused the Metrojet crash.

The U.S. officials’ focus on the geopolitics of the possible bombing, and less so the immediate threat to U.S. security, underscored the degree to which ISIS is still seen as a different kind of terrorist threat from al Qaeda.

For several years now, intelligence and security officials have been frantically trying to stop al Qaeda from bringing bombs onto airplanes. Now ISIS had apparently succeeded where America’s longtime terrorist enemy had failed. But alarms weren’t sounding across Washington—even as leaked intelligence suggested a bomb had taken down the doomed jet.

While the American officials weren’t blithe about the loss of life—224 people died in the crash—they said it could change the calculus in Syria in ways that ultimately benefit the United States.

“This wasn’t an American airliner. If it were, we’d be having a different conversation,” one intelligence official said.

Another U.S. official echoed that sentiment.

“It is not the United States’ responsibility to secure Sharm el-Sheikh airport and the facilities there,” he said. “Why the muted response? Because that is the best one to have.”

Several officials noted that the security at Sharm el-Sheikh airport was notoriously weak—that’s one reason the U.S. government does not allow direct flights from there to any American airports.
The U.S. shares intelligence pertaining to airport security with its European and Israeli allies, one official noted. And while Egypt is the strongest Arab ally in the region and Sharm el-Sheikh airport repeatedly welcomed U.S. cabinet secretaries during the final years of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s tenure, the intelligence sharing on airport security is not as broad as with other allies.
Officials and counterterrorism experts also questioned whether ISIS could easily replicate the attack, which seems to have relied on an insider at the airport who either placed the bomb aboard or gave access to the person who did.

“If this was ISIS, I don’t know if they can scale or replicate this. Sharm el-Sheikh is notorious for being in a high-risk area with a low-quality security operation,” Christopher Harmer, an analyst with the Institute for the Study of War, told The Daily Beast.

One former U.S. security official pointed out that airline bombs were nothing new for Russia. On Aug. 24, 2004, two Chechen suicide bombers blew themselves up on separate airplanes departing from Moscow, killing 89 people. U.S. and Western security procedures, the former official said, were more likely to catch these kinds of attacks, though they’re certainly not foolproof. In 2009, an al Qaeda operative smuggled a bomb in his underwear aboard a Northwest Airlines flight from Amsterdam to Detroit, but it failed to go off.

Another reason not to fear immediate attacks against U.S. carriers was that the Metrojet crash was not the result of failed U.S. intelligence or prevention measures, several officials argued. While U.S. intelligence did pick up communications among ISIS fighters warning about “something big” in the days before the crash, it was vague and inconclusive.

For weeks now, Obama administration officials have been hoping that Putin’s intervention might produce unintended consequences and weaken him at home. Last month, when 60 Minutes correspondent Steve Kroft said that Putin was challenging Obama’s leadership, the American president replied, “If you think that running your economy into the ground and having to send troops in order to prop up your only ally is leadership, then we’ve got a different definition of leadership.”
But the Obama administration is in a difficult position if it wants to use the crash for political advantage. Officials cannot celebrate the killing of innocent people—nor did they in interviews.
And yet the U.S. strategy for dealing with Putin’s aggression is clearly predicated on the bet that his Syrian adventure will end badly.

“Putin’s actions create great risks for him and his country,” one U.S. intelligence official told The Daily Beast last month, prior to the airliner crash. “It is not just a Russian-backed failed regime at risk, it is now Russian prestige on the international stage. There is a risk of extremist backlash from the hundreds, maybe thousands, of foreign fighters from Russia and its near-abroad who may return to strike Russia at home.”

But there may be an upside for Putin, too. If he can portray the bombing as an attack on Russia and then step up airstrikes against ISIS fighters—whom he has generally been avoiding—then Putin could turn Syria into a magnet for other jihadis, including those in Russia.

“He may look at Syria as a honey pot,” said Harmer. “A jihadi who wants to get his swerve on will go to Syria, which means they won’t be blowing up subways in Moscow.”

“This is exactly what the U.S. did in the surge,” Harmer continued. In 2007 and 2008, President George W. Bush sent tens of thousands of additional combat forces to Iraq, arguing in part that it was better to fight terrorists there than on U.S. streets. The war in Iraq drew thousands of foreign fighters, and U.S. intelligence agencies and special forces worked together to capture or kill many of them.
The surge strategy provided a temporary victory, as it turned out, but it succeeded in devastating al Qaeda in Iraq, the predecessor of ISIS.

The Metrojet crash, if it turns out to be caused by a bomb, “will probably have a rally around the flag effect” for Putin, Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, a terrorism expert and fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told The Daily Beast. If that’s true, the public reaction to the bombing will run counter to U.S. hopes.

The threat of more ISIS attacks can’t be discounted until this one is fully understood. And not everyone was skeptical of ISIS abilities to mount a repeat.

“If this is a bomb by the affiliate of ISIS in the Sinai, ISIS has now fully eclipsed al Qaeda as the gravest terror threat in the world,” Rep. Adam Schiff, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, told ABC News’ This Week on Sunday.

“I think there’s a growing body of intelligence and evidence that this was a bomb, still not conclusive, but a growing body of evidence,” Schiff noted. “ISIS may have concluded that the best way to defeat the airport is not to go through them, but to go around them with the help of somebody on the inside. If that’s the case then I think there are at least a dozen airports in the region and beyond that are vulnerable to the same kind of approach, which is exactly why we have to harden those defenses.”

Iranian’s Continue To Break Obama’s Nuclear Deal (Ezekiel 17)

Iranian Airline Violates Terms Of Nuclear Deal By Purchasing Planes To Use In Syrian War

By Erin Banco @ErinBanco e.banco@ibtimes.com on November 04 2015 6:19 PM EST

An Airbus A310 owned by the Iranian private airline Mahan Air lands at Sanaa International Airport in Sanaa after its first flight to Yemen from Iran March 1, 2015. Mohamed al-Sayaghi/Reuters 

 

One of Iran’s commercial airlines last week bought a U.K.-manufactured jet with the aim of using it to deliver Iranian soldiers and weapons to Syria in support of the embattled regime of President Bashar Assad, International Business Times has learned. The purchase of the aircraft by an Iranian concern represents a clear violation of the deal brokered by the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama, under which Iran pledged to scale back its nuclear program in exchange for a lifting of sanctions, said senior American officials and attorneys who handle issues associated with sanctions compliance.

“Temporary sanctions relief … currently in place does not cover the sale or lease of complete aircraft to Iran,” said Betsy Bourassa, a representative of the Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence within the Treasury Department in Washington. And a representative of the State Department told IBT that it was aware of the sale and is investigating the transaction.

Under the terms of the international agreement, Iran is barred from purchasing aircraft from U.S. and European entities — and U.S. and European entities are barred from selling them to Iran — until Tehran has satisfied inspectors with the International Atomic Energy Agency that it has begun rolling back its nuclear program, according to sanctions lawyers at Sheppard Mullin. Calls to Iran’s Foreign Ministry in Tehran were not returned.

A breach of the agreement could delay the implementation of the nuclear accord, experts told IBT.
“This could affect the way Iranian sanctions are eased,” one attorney said, speaking on condition of anonymity to avoid complicating his clients’ dealings with Iran.

The aircraft purchase marks the second time within five months that the Iranian airline, Mahan Air, one of the country’s largest domestic and international carriers, has purchased aircraft to expand its Tehran-based fleet. Linking Iranian cities to Asian and European destinations, Mahan also flies to Damascus, where it delivers crucial stores of weaponry and troops of the elite ranks of the so-called Quds forces, which are aiding in the defense of the Syrian regime.


U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry (left) and the unidentified chief of staff of Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif (center) enter the Hotel Bristol in Vienna Oct. 29, 2015. Kerry and other leaders were in Vienna to discuss a resolution of the Syrian Civil War.  Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images
 
“Mahan Air’s close coordination with the Quds Force — secretly ferrying operatives, weapons and funds on its flights — reveals yet another facet of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps extensive infiltration of Iran’s commercial sector to facilitate its support for terrorism,” David Cohen, the U.S. under secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, said at a press briefing in Washington in 2011.

Mahan flights take off from Tehran and Abadan, another Iranian city, at unspecified times and without publicizing their destinations. The flights frequently disappear from tracking systems once they enter Syrian airspace. Radar then shows them having landed in Damascus.

The latest aircraft deal was carried out despite American officials’ previous pledges to prevent Mahan from acquiring additional jets and despite the fact that the carrier has been formally blacklisted by U.S. and European authorities for allegedly transporting weapons that facilitate terrorism. Mahan representatives did not return calls.

Aviation records maintained by a private registry show that Mahan purchased the jet from an individual listed as A. Grundlingh Oct. 15. Anton Grundlingh registered the plane in South Africa, where he is the director of three aircraft-affiliated companies and a shareholder in a financial-services firm.

Six months ago, the U.S. Treasury Department took punitive measures against an Iraqi company, Al-Naser Airlines, and a Syrian businessman for selling Boeing aircraft to Mahan. The department froze American-held assets of Al-Naser as well as businessman Issam Shammout and his Sky Blue Bird Aviation firm, banning U.S. entities from conducting business with them. The third party that sold the plane to Mahan most recently could be subject to similar proceedings, as could the plane’s previous owners — assuming it’s proven they had knowledge of the plane’s final sale to Iran. They could face other civil and even criminal charges. Financial institutions involved in the transaction are also at risk of being blacklisted.

In October 2011, the Treasury Department announced that Mahan would be sanctioned for providing financial, material and technological support to the Quds Force in the Islamic Republic Guard Corps. The airline was also accused of flying Quds Force members linked to a plot to kill Saudi Arabia’s former ambassador to the U.S., Adel al-Jubeir.


Iranian President Hassan Rouhani leaves after delivering a speech at a plenary session during the Asian African Conference in Jakarta, Indonesia, April 22, 2015.  Reuters/Beawiharta
 
Before Mahan Air purchased the aircraft, several other European airlines owned it, including Malmo Aviation, a Swedish company, and Blue 1, a Finnish firm. Grundlingh bought the plane May 7 from Triangle Regional Aircraft Leasing, previously known as BAE Systems Regional Aircraft Leasing.
Based in the U.K., BAE Systems could be penalized because of the transaction. So could Falko, another leasing company, which purchased BAE Systems Asset Management and its associated aircraft portfolio. Mahan Air is a private Iranian airline, but, due to the fact Iran’s economy is largely controlled by the government, analysts said Tehran officials most likely knew about the transaction and gave it the green light.

“Iran has an extremely old fleet. The average age of their planes is about 19 years. As part of the nuclear deal, Iran wanted the U.S. to make concessions in that sector,” said Alex Vatanka, an expert on Iran with the Middle East Institute think tank in Washington. Vatanka added that there is disagreement within the Iranian government about whether the country should have to wait to make these kinds of purchases.

The jet seats about 80 people and has significant cargo space. It would be capable of transporting not only soldiers but also small arms and anti-tank missiles.

IBT tracked several Mahan Air flights over the span of two days and found at least two flights that took off from Damascus, landing in Al-Hasakah, Syria, the site of intense fighting between the Islamic State group and regime forces and their allies, before flying back to Tehran.

The purchase by Mahan comes at a time when Iran and Russia are intervening militarily in Syria to prop up Assad. For more than a month, Russia has bombed targets where U.S.-armed rebels are stationed. Iran is sending weapons and fighters to expand Hezbollah’s reach on the ground. Combined, Iran and Russia have given Assad the upper hand in the battle against the rebels.
“It is a testament to the changing realities on the ground in Syria,” Vatanka said.

Iranian press reported this week that Nasim Air, a new Iranian airline that is reportedly partially owned by Mahan Air, purchased a Boeing 737.  Nasim Air could not be reached for comment. Should the report prove to be true, the transaction would point to Mahan’s widening operations and its ability to circumvent the law and escalate the violence in Syria.

The U.S. could be doing more to block Iranian aircraft purchases, said Emanuele Ottolenghi of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington think tank that is critical of American diplomacy with respect to Iran. The U.S could press for greater financial penalties on those who enable Mahan to acquire planes used in the conflict in Syria, he suggested.

“What the U.S. can do is discourage [companies] from getting involved in these deals by going after [the] whole industry that services Mahan,” Ottolenghi said. “The problem is that all those that have been involved with Mahan before are still there. They are still involved.”