Will Trump Attack North Korea?

The US is considering a direct strike against North Korea — here’s how it would go down

Alex Lockie

A view of the test-fire of Pukguksong-2 guided by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on the spot, in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang February 13, 2017.KCNA/Handout via Reuters

Just after North Korea carried out a missile test and a high-profile assassination of Kim Jong Un's half-brother in Malyasia, the Wall Street Journal reported that the US was considering direct military action against the Kim regime.

US President Donald Trump has apparently honed in on North Korea as his most serious external challenge, and has reportedly declared them the single greatest threat to the United States. In January, Trump tweeted that North Korean missile hitting the US, as they've often threatened, "won't happen!"

But in reality, taking out North Korea's nuclear capabilities, or decapitating the Kim regime, would pose serious risks to even the US military's best platforms.

Business Insider spoke with Stratfor's Sim Tack, a senior analyst and an expert on North Korea, to determine exactly how the US could potentially carry out a crippling strike against the Hermit Kingdom.

First, a decision would need to be made.

Military action against North Korea wouldn't be pretty. Some number of civilians in South Korea, possibly Japan, and US forces stationed in the Pacific would be likely to die in the undertaking no matter how smoothly things went.

In short, it's not a decision any US commander-in-chief would make lightly.

But the US would have to choose between a full-scale destruction of North Korea's nuclear facilities and ground forces or a quicker attack on only the most important nuclear facilities. The second option would focus more on crippling North Korea's nuclear program and destroying key threats to the US and its allies.

Since a full-scale attack could lead to "mission creep that could pull the US into a longterm conflict in East Asia," according to Tack, we'll focus on a quick, surgical strike that would wipe out the bulk of North Korea's nuclear forces.

Then, the opening salvo — a stealth air blitz and cruise missiles rock North Korea's nuclear facilities.

The best tools the US could use against North Korea would be stealth aircraft like the F-22 and B-2 bomber, according to Tack.

The US would slowly but surely position submarines, Navy ships, and stealth aircraft at bases near North Korea in ways that avoid provoking the Hermit Kingdom's suspicions.

Then, when the time was right, bombers would rip across the sky and ships would let loose with an awesome volley of firepower. The US already has considerable combat capability amassed in the region.

"Suddenly you'd read on the news that the US has conducted these airstrikes," said Tack.

While the F-22 and F-35 would certainly do work over North Korea missile production sites, it really a job for the B-2.

As a long-range stealth bomber with a huge ordnance capacity, the B-2 could drop massive, 30,000 pound bombs on deep underground bunkers in North Korea — and they could do it from as far away as Guam or the continental United States.

The first targets...

The initial targets would include nuclear reactors, missile production facilities, and launching pads for ICBMs, according to Tack.

Cruise missiles would pour in from the sea, F-22s would beat down North Korea's rudimentary air defenses, and B-2s would pound every known missile site into dust.

Planes like the F-35 and F-22 would frantically hunt down mobile missile launchers, which can hide all over North Korea's mountainous terrain. In the event that North Korea does get off a missile, the US and South Korea have layered missile defenses that would attempt to shoot it out of the sky.

Next, the US would try to limit North Korean retaliation.

Once the US has committed the initial strike against North Korea, how does Kim Jong-un respond?

Even with its nuclear facilities in ashes and the majority of their command and control destroyed "North Korea has a lot of options," said Tack. "They have their massive, massive conventional artillery options that can start firing at South Korea in a split second."

But as the graphic below shows, most North Korean artillery can't reach Seoul, South Korea's capital.

Additionally, Seoul has significant underground bunkers and infrastructure to quickly protect its citizens, though some measure of damage to the city would be unavoidable.

According to Tack, much of this artillery would instead fire on the demilitarized zone between the two Koreas, detonating mines so that North Korean ground forces can push through. Also within range would be US forces near the DMZ.

Some 25,000 American soldiers are stationed in South Korea, all of whom would face grave danger from North Korea's vast artillery installations.

But the North Korean artillery isn't top of the line. They could focus on slamming US forces, or they could focus on hitting Seoul. Splitting fire between the two targets would limit the impact of their longer-range systems.

Additionally, as the artillery starts to fire, it becomes and exposed sitting duck for US jets overhead.

The next phase of the battle would be underwater.

North Korea has a submarine that can launch nuclear ballistic missiles, which would represent a big risk to US forces as it can sail outside of the range of established missile defenses.

Fortunately, the best submarine hunters in the world sail with the US Navy.

Helicopters would drop special listening buoys, destroyers would use their advanced radars, and US subs would listen for anything unusual in the deep. North Korea's antique submarine would hardly be a match for the combined efforts of the US, South Korea, and Japan.

While the submarine would greatly complicate the operation, it would most likely find itself at the bottom of the ocean before it could do any meaningful damage.

What happens if Kim Jong Un is killed?

"Decapitation" or the removal of the Kim regime would be a huge blow to the fiercely autocratic Hermit Kingdom.

Kim Jong-un has reportedly engaged in a vicious campaign to execute senior officials with packs of dogs, mortar fire, and anti-aircraft guns for a simple reason — they have ties to China, according to Tack.

Jong-un's removal of anyone senior with ties to China means that he has consolidated power within his country to a degree that makes him necessary to the country's functioning.

Without a leader, North Korean forces would face a severe blow to their morale as well as their command structure, but it wouldn't end the fight.

"Technically North Korea is under the rule of their 'forever leader' Kim Il Sung," said Tack, adding that "a decapitation strike wouldn’t guarantee that the structures below him wouldn’t fall apart, but it would be a damn tricky problem for those that remain after him."

Unfortunately, North Koreans aren't shy about putting their leader first, and at the first indication of an attack, Kim would likely be tucked away in a bunker deep underground while his countrymen bore the brunt of the attack.

Then the US defends.

U.S. and South Korean marines participate in a U.S.-South Korea joint landing operation drill in Pohang March 30, 2015. The drill is part of the two countries' annual military training called Foal Eagle, which runs from March 2 to April 24. REUTERS/Kim Hong-Ji

"If North Korea doesn’t retaliate, they’ve lost capability and look weak," said Tack.

Indeed few would expect North Korea to go quietly after suffering even a crippling attack.

Through massive tunnels bored under the DMZ, North Korea would try to pour ground troops into the South.

"The ground warfare element is a big part of this," said Tack. "I think that the most likely way that would play out would be the fight in the DMZ area," where the US would not try to invade North Korea, but rather defend its position in the South.

Though its air force is small and outdated, North Korean jets would need to be addressed and potentially eliminated.

Meanwhile...

US special operations forces, after stealthy jets destroy North Korea's air defenses, would parachute in and destroy or deactivate mobile launchers and other offensive equipment.

The US faces a big challenge in trying to hunt down some 200 missile launchers throughout North Korea, some of which have treads to enter very difficult terrain where US recon planes would struggle to spot them.

It would be the work of US special forces to establish themselves at key logistical junctures and observe North Koreans' movements, and then relay that to US air assets.

So how does this all end?

North Korea is neither a house of cards or an impenetrable fortress.

Additionally, the resolve of the North Koreans remains a mystery. North Korea has successfully estimated that the international community is unwilling to intervene as it quietly becomes a nuclear power, but that calculation could become their undoing.

North Korea would likely launch cyber attacks, possibly shutting down parts of the US or allies' power grids, but US Cyber Command would prepare for that.

North Korea would likely destroy some US military installations, lay waste to some small portion of Seoul, and get a handful of missiles fired — but again, US and allied planners would stand ready for that.

In the end, it would be a brutal, bloody conflict, but even the propaganda-saturated North Koreans must know just how disadvantaged they are, according to Tack.

Even after a devastating missile attack, some of North Korea's nuclear stockpile would likely remain hidden. Some element of the remainder of North Koreans could stage a retaliation, but what would be the point?

"If they chose to go the route of conducting a large scale retaliation, they’re inviting a continuation of the conflict that eventually they cannot win ... Nobody in this whole game is going to believe that North Korea can win a war against the US, South Korea, and Japan," concluded Tack.

US Threatens North Korea

U.S. warns North Korea of 'overwhelming' response if nuclear arms used 
Thu Feb 2, 2017 | 10:13 PM EST

By Phil Stewart | SEOUL

U.S. President Donald Trump's defense secretary warned North Korea on Friday of an "effective and overwhelming" response if Pyongyang chose to use nuclear weapons, as he reassured Seoul of steadfast U.S. support at the end of a two-day visit.

"Any attack on the United States, or our allies, will be defeated, and any use of nuclear weapons would be met with a response that would be effective and overwhelming," Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said at South Korea's defense ministry.

Mattis' remarks come amid concern that North Korea could be readying to test a new ballistic missile, in what could be an early challenge for Trump's administration.

North Korea, which regularly threatens to destroy South Korea and its main ally, the United States, conducted more than 20 missile tests last year, as well as two nuclear tests, in defiance of U.N. resolutions and sanctions.

The North appears to have also restarted operation of a reactor at its main Yongbyon nuclear facility that produces plutonium that can be used for its nuclear weapons program, according to U.S. think tank 38 North.

"North Korea continues to launch missiles, develop its nuclear weapons program and engage in threatening rhetoric and behavior," Mattis said.

North Korea's actions have prompted the United States and South Korea to respond by bolstering defenses, including the expected deployment of a U.S. missile defense system, known as Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), in South Korea later this year.

China, however, has objected to THAAD, saying it will destabilize the regional security balance, leading to calls from some South Korean opposition leaders to delay or cancel it.

South Korean Defence Minister Han Min-koo reaffirmed plans to deploy THAAD and said Mattis' visit to Seoul - his first trip abroad as defense secretary - sent a clear message of strong U.S. support.

"Faced with a current severe security situation, Secretary Mattis' visit to Korea ... also communicates the strongest warning to North Korea," Han said.

Once fully developed, a North Korean ICBM could threaten the continental United States, which is about 9,000 km (5,500 miles) from North Korea. ICBMs have a minimum range of about 5,500 km (3,400 miles), but some are designed to travel 10,000 km (6,200 miles) or more.

Former U.S. officials and other experts have said the United States essentially has two options when it comes to trying to curb North Korea's fast-expanding nuclear and missile programs - negotiate or take military action.

Neither path offers certain success and the military option is fraught with huge dangers, especially for Japan and South Korea, U.S. allies in close proximity to North Korea.

Mattis is scheduled to depart later on Friday for Japan.

The Terrible Korean Nuclear Horn

The terrifying truth about North Korea's nuclear weapons

Alex Lockie

"North Korea just stated that it is in the final stages of developing a nuclear weapon capable of reaching parts of the US," President-elect Donald Trump tweeted on January 2. "It won't happen!"

However, the terrifying truth is that North Korea, the only country to have tested nuclear weapons in the 21st century, has just as much of a say in whether its potential nuclear arms can or will reach the US as Trump and the US do.

"It can be difficult to make assessments about North Korea's nuclear capabilities given that we have very little access to North Korea's missile facilities," Kelsey Davenport, the director of nonproliferation policy and a North Korea expert at the Arms Control Association, told Business Insider.

"But it's clear that North Korea has made significant advances both with nuclear warheads and with ballistic missiles," Davenport said.

North Korea's nuclear arsenal is still in its early phases, but Kim Jong Un, the country's leader, commands about 100 missile launchers with several missiles for each, according to Jeffrey Lewis, the founding publisher of Arms Control Wonk.

While there's some debate about North Korea's stockpile of nuclear materials, "you're looking at a few tens of warheads, but that number's going to keep going up every year," Lewis told Business Insider.

In comparison, the US has 1,796 nuclear missiles deployed, another 4,500 stockpiled, and 2,800 retired and waiting to be dismantled, according to the Arms Control Association.

Furthermore, North Korea presently has no way of reaching any part of the US with a missile of any sort, but Pyongyang is "likely at the point now where it could mount a nuclear warhead on a medium-range missile, and that would put South Korea, Japan, and US military installations in range of the North Korean nuclear threat," Davenport said.

north koreaNorth Korean leader Kim Jong Un.Reuters

North Korea is a tiny, poor, backward nation with limited missile capabilities and a small nuclear stockpile, but it poses a very serious threat to the US and its allies. Ultimately, there's extremely little the US could do to stop the rogue nation should it chose to strike.

missile defense THAADA THAAD battery fires an interceptor.Missile Defense Agency

Could the US stop a North Korean nuclear attack?

It's complicated.

The US and its allies have three major forms of missile defense against North Korea.

"Missiles come in a variety of ranges," Lewis said. "Every missile defense system is set to deal with a small subset of missiles in a particular range and at one stage in flight."

For the short- and medium-range missiles with which North Korea could look to strike a nearby foe - or the 25,000 US troops stationed in South Korea - the US has Aegis radar-equipped Navy destroyers.

"That's good for medium-range missiles," Lewis said.

Next, Patriot Advanced Capability-3 interceptors defend against missiles at their final, or terminal, stage. These are "mostly good at short- and medium-range ballistic missiles," said Lewis. The PAC-3 "would cover a city or an airfield," he added.

Finally, the biggest and perhaps best system is the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense system. "THAAD could cover all of South Korea, including everything up to a Nodong missile," North Korea's medium-range system, Lewis said.

thaad south koreaThe Heritage Foundation

On maps and graphics, you can see the overlapping areas of protection provided by these three systems, but looks can deceive; with missile defense, all systems deal in probabilities, not certainties.

"You actually have to see the thing get launched, understand where it's heading, and pass the information along to battlefield management software, the brain that makes all of this work," said Lewis.

Of all the steps in the process, not one is immune to distortion.

"Radars can be defeated by chaff or clutter," Lewis said. "North Korea could launch a radar blackout attack, where a nuke detonates in the atmosphere and can black out a radar for a few seconds. Those could be the few seconds you need."

north korea missiles"Missile defense is not a surefire way to negate the threat posed by another country's nuclear-capable ballistic missiles," said Kelsey Davenport.Agence France Presse

Davenport said, "It's important to note that this THAAD system will only cover North Korea, but North Korea could evade that by launching a nuke from a submarine from outside of THAAD radar."

And North Korea may "try to confuse the THAAD system by launching multiple missiles at once or launching decoys," she said.

But could North Korean missiles overwhelm the US's defenses in its homeland? Experts say we have every reason to believe Kim when he says he's working toward an intercontinental ballistic missile, and the US's defenses suffer from the same uncertainties as systems abroad.

The US protects its western coast from a fixed site in Alaska, where interceptor missiles would theoretically strike an incoming ICBM "midtrajectory, while it's traveling through space," Lewis said.

However, as a recent Bloomberg article noted, the office that tests this system concluded it had "limited capability to defend the US homeland from small numbers of simple" ICBMs, according to its last report.

Lewis echoed this, saying it has "a spotty test record" and that there are multiple questions about how well it would perform. Unlike THAAD, the Alaska site fires salvos, a series of interceptor missiles for each incoming threat, which serves as an admission that the system falls short of perfection, according to Lewis.

"The system in Alaska needs to be redesigned," Lewis said. "They plan to salvo-fire it, so every interceptor has a 50-50 chance of hitting. ... If they fire five, they're gonna be up in the high-confidence territory" for intercepts.

But this high ratio of interceptors to threats means that a North Korean salvo could possibly exhaust the US's supply of interceptors with decoys, leaving the US defenseless.

So for now, the only guarantee the US has against North Korean ICBMs is that such a threat doesn't exist.

air forceUS Air Force

So why doesn't the US just destroy North Korea's nuclear capabilities?

Each day, North Korea gets closer to issuing a real threat to the US, and it already significantly endangers the lives of millions within its range. Yet the US can't exactly swoop in and stop it.

"A preemptive strike on North Korea would carry an enormous risk of retaliation on South Korea or US assets in the area," Davenport said.

"The big dynamic that's a problem is that, I think, North Korea plans to use those missiles armed with nuclear weapons at the early part of the conflict to destroy US forces in the region and those coming in," said Lewis, adding that Kim's strategy would likely be to "impede an invasion and shock us."

"The problem the US and South Korea faces is that the options for defense are not all that appealing," said Lewis.

US pilots currently train in mock North Korean airspace with stealth planes like the F-22 and F-35 to destroy surface-to-air missiles, or SAM, and nuclear sites. While the fifth-generation aircraft would likely succeed and overwhelm North Korean forces, the nuclear sites are just too spread out and mysterious to knock out before Pyongyang would have a chance to strike back.

f22An F-22 Raptor flies in formation behind a KC-135 Stratotanker.US Air Force

"There are so many unknowns about the number of warheads North Korea has, where it stores them. ... It would be incredibly difficult to ensure that a preemptive strike would neutralize the North Korean threat or even the conventional threat posed to Seoul," said Davenport, alluding to the huge artillery installations North Korea has fixed on the South Korean capital that are ready to blast away.

When it comes to using jets to hunt down SAM and nuclear sites, "the US tried this in Iraq in 1991, and it was a total failure," Lewis said. The US's considerable losses of aircraft to antiaircraft batteries during the Gulf War was a "searing experience for the US Air Force," Lewis said.

While there's plenty of reason to think that today's F-22s and the coming F-35s would far outmatch North Korea's technology and air defenses, the terrain of North Korea plays well for Kim.

Iraq's countryside is defined by flat desert expanses, where road-mobile antiaircraft batteries can easily navigate but have nowhere to hide. North Korea, on the other hand, has mountains and forests, though the country is smaller - therefore, the road-mobile missile launchers and antiaircraft batteries would have more opportunities to hide but less space to do so.

In any case, the landscape presents difficulties in hunting down sensitive sites, even with the best jets the US has to offer.

gulf war air force iraq military defenseThe landscapes of Iraq and North Korea couldn't be more different.Wikimedia Commons

And unlike the US, North Korea has road-mobile missile launchers that can hide anywhere.

"One hundred launchers, so it would be a pretty big lift, and you have to do it pretty fast" to avoid a North Korean counterattack, said Lewis. Many have suggested that instead of disarming North Korea with a lightning-quick blitz from the air, forces decapitate the regime by striking Kim himself.

In fact, South Korea recently announced plans to form a small "decapitation brigade" that would surgically destroy the leader and his top leadership - but that's a best-case scenario.

The terrifying truth about North Korea's nuclear threat is that it can't be stopped by one system or even multiple systems. It can't be blitzed from the sky. It can't be effectively debilitated by sanctions, as time has proven, and it only strengthens over time.

North Korea missile BI graphicsAP Images / Business Insider

Several possible solutions circulate in the national-security arena, all with strengths and weaknesses, all risking innocent lives. And each side appears set on striking first and ending the conflict before it begins.

"The US and North Korean war plans are to go first," Lewis said. "South Korea plans to go first. All three independent parties plan to go first, and two of them are wrong. It's a dangerous situation people haven't thought through."

Korea Has Enough Plutonium For 10 More Nukes

N. Korea has plutonium for 10 nuclear bombs: S. Korea

AFP

   © Provided by AFP North Korea has carried out five nuclear tests and is seeking to develop a ballistic missile capable of hitting the US mainland 

North Korea now has enough plutonium to make 10 nuclear bombs, South Korea said Wednesday, a week after leader Kim Jong-Un said it was close to test-launching an intercontinental ballistic missile.The isolated communist state, which has carried out five nuclear tests and numerous missile launches, is thought to be planning a nuclear push in 2017 as it seeks to develop a weapons system capable of hitting the US mainland.Analysts are divided over how close Pyongyang is to realising its full nuclear ambitions, but all agree it has made enormous strides since Kim took over as leader from his father Kim Jong-Il who died in December 2011.Seoul's defence ministry said the North is believed to have some 50 kilogrammes (110 pounds) of weapons-grade plutonium as of the end of 2016 -- enough to make about 10 weapons -- up from 40 kilogrammes eight years earlier.

The North also has a "considerable" ability to produce weapons based on highly-enriched uranium, it said in a two-yearly white paper, but did not estimate weapons-grade uranium stocks, citing impenetrable secrecy in the state's uranium programme.

US think tank the Institute for Science and International Security estimated in June that the North's total nuclear arsenal was more than 21 bombs, up from 10-16 weapons in 2014, based on estimates of plutonium and uranium.

The North has boosted plutonium supplies by reactivating its once-mothballed nuclear reactor in Yongbyon, the defence ministry said.

North Korea deactivated the Yongbyon reactor in 2007 under an aid-for-disarmament accord, but began renovating it after Pyongyang's third nuclear test in 2013.

The type of plutonium suitable for a nuclear bomb typically needs to be extracted from spent nuclear reactor fuel.

The Korean Horn Is A Serious Nuclear Threat

North Korea can launch nuclear missile 'anytime'

The US say North Korea has made vast improvements to its nuclear capabilities. (AAP)

North Korea has claimed it can test launch an intercontinental ballistic missile at any time from any location set by leader Kim Jong Un, saying the United States' hostile policy was to blame for its arms development.

Kim said on January 1 that his nuclear-capable country was close to test-launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

"The ICBM will be launched anytime and anywhere determined by the supreme headquarters of the DPRK," an unnamed Foreign Ministry spokesman was quoted as saying by the official KCNA news agency.

The United States said on Friday that North Korea had demonstrated a "qualitative" improvement in its nuclear and missile capabilities after an unprecedented level of tests last year.

Experts have said that while North Korea may be close to testing an ICBM, it would likely take years to perfect the weapon.

Once fully developed, a North Korean ICBM could threaten the continental United States, which is around 9,000 kilometres from the North. ICBMs have a minimum range of about 5,500 km, but some are designed to travel 10,000 km or further.

US President-elect Donald Trump responded on Monday to Kim's comments on an ICBM test by declaring in a tweet that "It won't happen!"

A US State Department spokesman said last week that the United States does not believe that North Korea is capable of mounting a nuclear warhead on a ballistic missile.

North Korea has been under UN sanctions since 2006 over its nuclear and ballistic missile tests. The sanctions were tightened last month after Pyongyang conducted its fifth and largest nuclear test on September 9.

"The US is wholly to blame for pushing the DPRK to have developed ICBM as it has desperately resorted to anachronistic policy hostile toward the DPRK for decades to encroach upon its sovereignty and vital rights," KCNA quoted the spokesman as saying.

"Anyone who wants to deal with the DPRK would be well advised to secure a new way of thinking after having clear understanding of it," the spokesman said, according to KCNA.

Reuters.

Korea Is A Legitimate Nuclear Power

Nuclear, missile tests show 'qualitative' improvement in North Korea capabilities: U.S.

Thu Jan 5, 2017 | 8:06 PM EST

By David Brunnstrom and Lesley Wroughton | WASHINGTON

The United States said on Thursday North Korea had demonstrated a "qualitative" improvement in its nuclear and missile capabilities after an unprecedented level of tests last year, showing the needed to sustain pressure on Pyongyang to bring it back to disarmament negotiations.

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken told a joint news conference after a meeting with his Japanese and South Korean counterparts that North Korea had conducted 24 missile tests in the past year, as well as two nuclear tests, and learned from each one.

"Even a so-called failure is progress because ... they apply what they have learned to their technology and to the next test. And in our assessment, we have a qualitative improvement in their capabilities in the past year as a result of this unprecedented level of activity," he said.

"With every passing day the threat does get more acute," Blinken said, and referred to comments by North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Un, on Sunday that his country was close to test-launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) of a kind that could someday hit the United States.

Blinken said it was vital for the United States, Japan, South Korea and other countries to boost cooperation to defend against the threat.

"At the same time, it's absolutely vitally important that we exercise sustained, comprehensive pressure on North Korea to get it to stop these programs, to come back to the negotiating table, and to engage in good faith on denuclearization," Blinken said, referring to international sanctions.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump responded on Monday to Kim's comments on an ICBM test by declaring in a tweet that "It won't happen!"

Experts say preventing such a test is far easier said than done, and Trump gave no indication what new steps he might take to roll back North Korea's weapons programs after he takes office on Jan. 20, something successive U.S. administrations, both Democratic and Republican, have failed to do.

Former U.S. officials and other experts say the United States essentially had two options when it came to trying to curb North Korea's fast-expanding nuclear and missile programs - negotiate or take military action.

Neither path offers certain success and the military option is fraught with huge dangers, especially for Japan and South Korea, given their close proximity to North Korea.

Japanese Vice Foreign Minister Shinsuke Sugiyama said Tokyo was watching closely to see what kind of Asia policy Trump would follow, but did not expect major changes.

"Will it be exactly the same as we have it now? I doubt it. But basically, I don’t see the direction as changing in a significant way,” he told the news conference, adding that the U.S. security treaties with Tokyo and Seoul were an important pillar of U.S. policy.

Blinken said an effective sanctions campaign required "determination" and "patience." "I believe that as long as we sustain it and build on it, it will have an effect," he said.

In another tweet on Monday, Trump said North Korea's neighbor and only ally, China, was not helping to contain Pyongyang - despite Beijing's support for successive rounds of U.N. sanctions.

Blinken said Washington had seen positive signs from China in recent weeks in implementing new restrictions on coal imports from North Korea, but added: "That needs to be sustained ... to be carried forward."

(Reporting by David Brunnstrom and Lesely Wroughton; Editing by James Dalgleish and Lisa Shumaker)

North Korea prepares for more nuclear tests

North Korea prepares for new round of nuclear weapons tests

By Carlo Muñoz - The Washington Times - Sunday, January 1, 2017

North Korea is reportedly in the final stages for a new round of nuclear weapons tests, Pyongyang announced Sunday.

The tests are focused on the country’s latest intercontinental ballistic missile, North Korean President Kim Jong-un said in a nationally televised speech on New Year’s Day, according to South Korean news agency Yonhap News

“Research and development of cutting edge arms equipment is actively progressing and … test launch preparation is in its last stage,” Mr. Kim said.

The new weapon, he said, could be used to launch nuclear strikes against neighboring South Korea and the U.S. if both nations refuse to cut military ties.

Ongoing military exercises between Seoul and Washington, which retains a significant troop presence on the peninsula, have ratcheted up in recent years as Pyongyang’s actions have become more belligerent since Mr. Kim took power last year.

While North Korea’s repeated nuclear saber-rattling has raised tensions in the Asia-Pacific region, its test record for its burgeoning nuclear stockpile has yet to pose a tangible threat to the U.S.

North Korea’s military leaders have achieved only a single successful test-fire of its Musudan intercontinental ballistic missile since its development in early 2000, despite numerous tests.

In October alone, North Korea conducted two failed weapons tests of the Musudan, a nuclear-capable missile with an anticipated range of between 1,800 to 2,500 miles, within a single week.

The failed tests prove that Pyongyang has “shown their limits” in development of nuclear weapons, South Korean Defense Minister Han Min Koo said at the time.

But the tests may be less about nuclear weapons development and more about firing a warning shot at the incoming Donald Trump administration, a former North Korean diplomat said Sunday.

“Due to domestic political procedures, North Korea calculates that South Korea and the U.S. will not be able to take physical or military actions to deter North Korea’s nuclear development,” Thae Yong Ho told Yonhap News.

“North Korea believes that relentless provocations must shift new [South Korean and U.S.] governments’ policy lines into more stability-focused ones,” he added.

On the campaign trail, Mr. Trump stunned U.S. military officials and the defense policy establishment with his suggestion that the U.S. should stop trying to prevent South Korea and Japan from obtaining nuclear weapons.

Korea Prepares for Long Range ICBM

Kim Jong Un says North Korea close to testing ICBM

SEOUL (CNN) - North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said that his country is close to testing an intercontinental ballistic missile.

"Research and development of the cutting-edge tech weapons are actively progressing and strengthening our defense capabilities, including last stage preparation of tests for intercontinental ballistic rocket launch have been continuously succeeding," Kim said in a televised address on New Year's Day.

The speech was full of the North's usual self-congratulatory, lofty proclamations and anti-Western rhetoric.

Kim referred to North Korea as a "nuclear and military power in the east that formidable enemy dare encroach on" and said "unless the US and its vassal forces stop nuclear threat and blackmail and unless they stop the war exercises which they stage right at our noses under the pretext of annual exercises, the DPRK would keep increasing the military capabilities for self-defense and preemptive striking capacity with a main emphasis on nuclear force," according to state news agency KCNA.

But there's reason to take Kim's threats more seriously than those in years past.

In 2016 North Korea backed up its fiery rhetoric with two nuclear tests -- the country had only conducted three before -- and a handful of land and sea-based missile tests.

"Combining nuclear warheads with ballistic missile technology in the hands of a volatile leader like Kim Jong Un is a recipe for disaster," Adm. Harry Harris, the head of the US military's Pacific Command, said in a December speech.

Despite Pyongyang's apparent progress on a warhead, it doesn't have good enough missile and rocket technology to deliver a nuke -- at least not yet, says Bruce Bennett, a senior defense analyst at the Rand Corporation think tank.

But Kim is determined to develop nuclear weapons by the end of 2017 "at all costs," according to a high-profile North Korean who defected.

"Following the ruling party congress in May, Kim Jong-un made it a party policy to finish nuclear development within the earliest time possible," Thae Yong-ho, formerly No. 2 at the North Korean Embassy in London, said in a news briefing, according to the Yonhap News Agency.

Thae said North Korea is betting that South Korea and the US won't be able to deter the North's nuclear ambitions due to domestic politics in both countries.

Copyright 2017 by CNN NewSource. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

North Korea Plans For More Nuclear Tests

Defector: N Korea Planning More Nuke Tests, Wants Recognition as Nuclear Power

Sputnik  

Thae Yong-ho, formerly the deputy ambassador at North Korean's embassy in London, told a South Korean Parliamentary intelligence committee meeting December 23 that Pyongyang has sent documents to its overseas missions reporting that the country wants to conduct its sixth and seventh nuclear tests next year, KBS reports.

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"In particular, it calls for preparations, as North Korea would seek to conduct a nuclear test around the presidential election," Thae said, according to lawmakers, the Korea Times reported.

Thae defected to South Korea in July, the most senior North Korean diplomat ever to do so. This was his first public appearance.

North Korean leader Kim Jon-un wants to be recognized as a nuclear state, Thae said, and then resolve its tangle of international tensions through dialogue. He's aiming for this recognition by July 2017, when its next Workers' Party Congress will be held, according to KBS.

The timing coincides nicely with the early days of a new presidential administration in the US and with likely South Korean presidential elections. South Korea is likely to hold a presidential election sooner than scheduled, as South Korean President Park Geun-hye was impeached earlier this month. Her term is scheduled to end in February 2018. South Korea's Constitutional Court has six months to decide whether to unseat her or reinstate her, Korea Times reports.

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North Korea is hoping for a change, Thae said. "Pyongyang hopes that doubts about the effectiveness of sanctions against North Korea gain traction in a short period of time. It wants South Korea to seek a new inter-Korean policy," he said, Korea Times reports, citing a South Korean member of Parliament.

North Korea conduced its fifth nuclear test in September. The international talks on ending its nuclear program — involving North and South Korea, China, Japan, Russia and the US, have been on hold since 2008.