Trident: MPs could vote on nuclear weapons before Christmas
By Tim Ross, Senior Political Correspondent
9:30PM BST 10 Oct 2015
Ministers want to settle the question replacing Trident within weeks to stop the SNP turning next year’s Holyrood elections into a referendum on the nuclear deterrent
The future of Britain’s nuclear weapons is set to be decided within weeks as ministers plan to call an early Commons vote on Trident.
The government wants the question to be settled “by Christmas” to stop Nicola Sturgeon and Jeremy Corbyn turning next year’s Scottish parliament elections into a referendum on Britain’s nuclear deterrent, senior sources said.
Senior figures fear that a divisive debate over national defence would weaken Britain’s image abroad at a time of increased threat to national security.
A vote in the Commons in December would also expose the deep split on the issue within Labour. The party’s new leader, Mr Corbyn, is certain to oppose replacing the nuclear-armed submarines but many of his shadow Cabinet members and MPs want to maintain the missile system.
The vote had been expected by the end of 2016, which would allow enough time for the first of the new submarines to be built before the existing fleet is taken out of service in the late 2020s.
However, the critical decision on whether to proceed with replacing Trident now looks likely to be brought forward.
The UK’s deterrent consists of four Vanguard-class submarines, each capable of carrying up to 16 Trident II D-5 ballistic nuclear missiles.
At least one submarine is constantly on patrol, while one undergoes maintenance and the other two carry out manoeuvers. The missiles are capable of hitting a target up to 7,500 miles away.
However, the Trident missile system, which was launched in the 1990s as a replacement for the predecessor, Polaris, is due to end its service from 2028. It takes about a decade to build and prepare a new submarine for service.
The full, like-for-like replacement of Britain’s nuclear deterrent would cost more than £25 billion and by some estimates up to £100 billion.
The parliamentary vote on whether to approve the replacement of all four submarines had been expected to take place in June 2016.
But ministers fear that this will make the future of Trident a defining issue at the Edinburgh parliament elections in May. The Scottish National Party leader, Ms Sturgeon, would be likely to campaign against replacing the submarines.
Alex Salmond, Ms Sturgeon’s predecessor as Scottish First Minister, has warned that going ahead with a replacement for Trident could trigger a new referendum on independence for Scotland, because so many Scots opposed nuclear weapons.
Three separate senior government sources said a vote could take place before Christmas this year, or in January 2016, on the principle of whether to go ahead with a “like for like” replacement.
“We want to get this decision soon to stop the SNP turning the Scottish elections into a referendum on Trident,” one government source said.
Senior Tories are also keen to resolve the question over Trident to prevent damage being done to Britain’s image as a country with a strong commitment to defence.This is seen as especially important at a time when Russian President Vladimir Putin has been aggressive in his recent rhetoric about nuclear strikes and increasingly provocative in launching military interventions in Syria and Ukraine.
Last week, Nato allies proposed to re-start nuclear weapons exercises for the first time since the end of the Cold War in order to ensure that Western military commanders are ready for any scenario.
“It takes at least 10 years to build and trial a new submarine so we need to get on with the first one fairly soon,” another senior government figure said. “We are not going to lose a vote on Trident. But the Scottish elections in May are a complicating factor. We need to stop Sturgeon spending the whole campaign talking about Trident.”
Last week, David Cameron told the Conservative conference in Manchester that his government wanted to go ahead and order a replacement nuclear missile system as an essential part of Britain’s defences.
Mr Corbyn’s Labour party may choose to allow his MPs a “free vote” to avoid a damaging rebellion against the leader’s anti-nuclear stance.
The crucial vote would be on the headline, or “main-gate” decision on whether to proceed. A vote in favour would authorise ministers to negotiate the best deal for replacing the submarines from military manufacturers.
The submarines would then be ordered and built individually, and in stages, to ensure that the overall bill is kept as low as possible. Before the vote can take place, however, the government must conclude the Strategic Defence and Security Review, which examines the threats facing Britain and defence planning and funding for the years ahead.
Trident will be part of this review, which is expected soon after the Chancellor delivers his Autumn Statement on November 25. A vote on Trident could then take place at some point before December 17, when the Commons breaks for Christmas.
