SOUTH ASIAN DILEMMA
Abrar Hussain
Saturday, October 10, 2015 – South Asia has been a region of significance to the major powers for centuries. It has always been under consistent study owing to its unique geography in between the sea routes of the Indian Ocean and the possible land route of Central Asia to connect Europe to the East. The struggle between the major powers owed to its vital geostrategic posture and maritime lines of communication has diluted the regional balance of power. Major Powers invariably prefer resource rich, logistic vital South Asia for their economic and strategic gains over regional stability. US pivotal role, China’s policy of “Peaceful Rise” and the quest of Russian geopolitical aims, introduced South Asia to a new Great Game. It includes the competition over maritime advancements, transit routes, economic zones and strategic points.
‘Vietnam Syndrome’ of US in South Asia is aimed against China’s aggressive soft power diplomacy of providing loans with uncomplicated repayment terms, investment in infrastructure buildup, military assistance and political support. China’s strive to access maritime extension via Indian Ocean has threatened Delhi and Washington. Robert D Kaplan sees China’s excessive involvement in South Asian waters as insecurity of US and a reason of turmoil in the region.
Aiming to restrain China’s ambitions of extending its regional plus global sphere of influence, Indo-US strategic nexus is going beyond the ideology of non-proliferation and arms control. Their ‘Next Steps in Strategic Partnership’ through which US intended to assist India with its space programme, high technology deals and missile defence. This will not only restrain China’s rise in Indian Ocean but also it will ease US engagements in Far-East and Southeast Asia. Accordingly US power play adds fuel to the existing fire of Indo-Pak relations. Pakistan is concerned about the long term implications of Indo-US nuclear deal and the growing strategic partnership between the two countries.
Russo-American interest in the defence market of India as a well-off investment has drastically altered Indo-Pak military balance. Indian multidimensional modernization in military architecture has compelled Pakistan to enhance its nuclear programme to deter Indian massive conventional arms buildup and offensive doctrinal shifts. In the face of unsettled disputes and harsh hostility between India and Pakistan, the discriminatory defence agreements raised more red flags in the conflict-ridden South Asia. Another rationale of South Asian ugly stability is the nuclear imbalance. The non-proliferation regime has failed to produce non-discriminatory, multilateral and internationally effective treaty. Secondly the commitment of non-proliferation regime seriously weakened by Indo-US nuclear deal and welcoming waiver for India into NSG. Through the deal India can freely import Uranium, which will enable it to produce significant amounts of fissile material. Though its peaceful purpose is being highlighted, but owing to the critical regional geopolitics, it will not take long for India to develop atoms of peace into war machinery.
In such an unstable environment, there is no question for Pakistan to endorse the loose abbreviation of arms control treaties. Various international actors are taking benefit of Pakistan’s refusal to permit talks on NPT and FMCT, despite of the fact to highlight the prerequisites and inability of international non-proliferation regime to go after the big fish.
NPT being the most widespread treaty on non-proliferation of nukes, needs a considerable revision according to the politico-strategic canvas of Nuclear South Asia. Its core agenda of Nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation remained unfulfilled because the P5 inability to assure national security interest and objectives of strategic stability equally to both India and Pakistan. The status-quo of P5 in the series of NPT review conferences without any agreeable conclusion sets NPT itself in trouble. Furthermore, FMCT itself is objectionable; it implies only a halt in future production of fissile material. It never emphasized about existing stockpiles and reactor grade Plutonium in which India supersedes Pakistan. Pakistan always wants a solution to the problem of existing uneven stockpiles.
—Islamabad
