India-Pakistan: Why South Korea Matters
April 28, 2015: Despite more economic and military aid from China
Pakistan still has to face that fact that their military spends $7
billion a year compared to $40 billion a year for India. While China
spends over $120 billion a year China is currently confronting most of
its neighbors and the United States over territorial claims in the South
China Sea. There are also claims against Indian territory, but India is
part of a much more powerful anti-China coalition. Moreover India has a
GDP of $2 trillion compared to $245 billion for Pakistan. While the per
capita income for Pakistan and India has long been about the same,
since economic reforms in the 1990s (less socialism more free markets)
India has pulled ahead.
Even more
humiliating is the fact that many East Asian nations had the same per
capita income as Pakistan and India in 1960 but are way ahead now. South
Korea, for example, now has per capita income 17 times larger than
Pakistan’s. South Korea concentrated on free markets, education and
reducing corruption. That’s simple enough, but doing that has proved
impossible so far for Pakistan (or India, which is at least trying).
Worse for Pakistan’s rulers is the fact that more Pakistanis are aware
of these discrepancies and asking “Why?”
Meanwhile, one of the unpublicized parts of the recent Chinese $46
billion aid and investment package is assurances that the thousands of
Chinese who will accompany that money will be safe in general and
especially from Islamic terrorists. Most of these Chinese will be
involved with the $28 billion worth of infrastructure (roads, railroads
and power stations) China is building. Thus Pakistan is organizing a
special protection force of 12,000 men. This will consist of 12 infantry
battalions (six from the army and six from the Rangers and Frontier
Corps) and some special operations and intelligence personnel. China
also wants more Pakistani action against Islamic terrorists (Turkic
Uighurs) from China who have been based in Pakistan.
The $46 billion is in addition to a 2013 deal where China pledged to
spend $18 billion to build a road from Pakistan’s Indian Ocean port of
Gwadar and into northwest China. This will require drilling long tunnels
through the Himalayan Mountains on the border (in Pakistani controlled
Kashmir.)
This new deal expands that into a more extensive project called the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor.
This will make it much easier and cheaper to move people, data (via
fiber optic cables) and goods between China and Pakistan. China also
gets a 40 year lease on much of the port facilities at Gwadar, which
India fears will serve as a base for Chinese warships.
Pakistan is not getting along as well with its other neighbors.
Pakistan has forced (since mid-2014) several thousand Islamic terrorists
into eastern Afghanistan. In addition increasing anti-Afghan feelings
in Pakistan has led to another effort to persecute and expel several
million Afghans living (often illegally) in Pakistan. So far this year
over 3,000 such refugees a month are returning from Pakistan. While many
of these refugees could evade expulsion efforts over 40 percent of
those who return cite growing anti-Afghan attitudes and harassment as
the main reason for coming back to Afghanistan.
Then there is the Pakistani refusal to participate in the Arab effort
to suppress pro-Iran Shia rebels in Yemen. This is important for the
Gulf Arabs who are inclined to keep most of their troops out of Yemen.
Iran is more and more threatening and while Pakistan refused to send
troops they did promise to come in with troops if Saudi Arabia were
invaded.
The only likely invader
is Iran, so Pakistan, also dependent on Saudi generosity, has not
entirely backed away. Besides, Pakistan is Sunni and has nukes which is
some protection against threats from a future nuclear armed Shia Iran.
India has joined Burma in pressuring China to do something about the
continued shipments of Chinese weapons to tribal rebels in northern
Burma and northeast India. China denies this is happening and points out
that many Burmese rebels have long used Chinese weapons they bought
from illegal dealers in China and then smuggled into Burma. China also
points out that Burmese troops also use Chinese weapons. Burma and India
counter that the rebels in both countries are using weapons China did
not sell to the Burmese Army. Moreover these Chinese weapons (often
older and cheaper designs) are showing up worldwide in the hands of
rebels, terrorists and gangsters. The point here is that China is
looking the other way as a huge illegal arms sales and smuggling
operation goes about its business. China is in the midst of a major
corruption crackdown so these complaints from Burma and India might be
addressed this time around. Then again, maybe not.
The offensive against Islamic terrorists in the northwest, begun in
mid-2014, continues. Actually, because of the large number of captured
documents and prisoner interrogations there have been more raids and
arrests outside the northwestern tribal territories. This has caused
some problems because an army plan to go after Islamic terrorists in
Karachi (the largest city in Pakistan, where about eight percent of all
Pakistanis live) has encountered political resistance because of fear
this is part of some secret plot to stage another coup.
The Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine is being felt as far away as
India. That’s because the last five of 40 Indian AN-32 transports being
upgraded in Ukraine have, well, sort of disappeared. Ukrainian engineers
working in India to upgrade another 64 An-32s were called home and
India can no longer get An-32 spare parts from Ukraine. The original
contract called for 40 An-32s to be upgraded in Ukraine and another 64
in India. Now India faces the prospect of most of its aging An-32s
becoming inoperable by the end of the decade. India is desperate to
remedy this situation and is considering purchasing new transports. This
is a very expensive alternative, but appears to be the only one.
April 23, 2015: In northwest Pakistan (Waziristan and Khyber) the
military claims to have killed at least 47 Islamic terrorists over the
last two days. This involved both ground operations and air strikes.
April 22, 2015: The U.S. revealed that a January 29 UAV missile
strike on an Islamic terrorist compound in Pakistan (near the Afghan
border) that killed six Islamic terrorists also killed two foreign
hostages (an American held since 2011 and an Italian held since 2012)
that American intelligence did not know were there. The two hostages had
been kidnapped in Pakistan and held for ransom. The U.S. discourages
payment of ransom because it encourages kidnappers to go after more
Americans. The U.S. has carried out nearly 400 of these UAV missile
attacks Pakistan since 2004.
April 20, 2015: Pakistan ordered another fifty JF-17 jet fighters, to
be delivered by 2018. The first Pakistani JF-17 squadron became
operational in 2010. Pakistan has already received sixty JF-17s as part
of a project that began in 1992 and while it was a joint Pakistan-China
development project China supplied most of the money and did most of the
work. China, however, does not use the JF-17, only Pakistan. That’s
largely because the JF-17 is assembled in Pakistan, although over 40
percent of the components come from China or Russia. The project has
gone through several name changes (FC-1, Super 7). The 13 ton warplane
is meant to be a low cost ($20-30 million) alternative to the American
F-16. The JF-17 is considered the equal to earlier versions of the F-16,
but only half as effective as more recent F-16 models. The JF-17 uses
the same Russian engine, the RD-93 that is used in the MiG-29. The JF-17
design is based on a cancelled Russian project, the MiG-33. Most of the
JF-17 electronics are Western. The JF-17 can carry 3.6 tons of weapons
and use radar guided and heat seeking missiles. It has max speed of Mach
1.6, an operating range of 1,300 kilometers and a max altitude of
17,000 meters (55,000 feet). China has tried to export the aircraft to
other countries but found that, for what it cost, it was not
competitive.
April 17, 2015: Pakistan agreed to send warships to help maintain the
naval blockade of Yemen. Pakistan refused to supply warplanes or ground
troops and Arab anger at this is growing. So the warships are a peace
offering and willingness to support the UN approved arms embargo of
Yemen.
April 16, 2015:
India test
fired another Agni III. This is a 48 ton ballistic missile that was
first tested in 2006. It has a maximum range of 3,500 kilometers and a
payload of 1.5 tons. Most of them are now aimed at China rather than Pakistan.
April 15, 2015:
For the first
time since 2012 Pakistan successfully launched a Hatf V ballistic
missile. With a range of 1,300 kilometers, the missile can reach most of
India. Pakistan sees missiles like this as essential to making
Pakistani nuclear weapons a real deterrent to Indian invasion. The
Indians are building an anti-missile system, with Israeli help and
Pakistan is building more missiles and nuclear warheads in an attempt to
create the capability to overwhelm these Indian defenses. Meanwhile,
Indian politicians, press and public opinion all show no enthusiasm
whatsoever for an invasion of Pakistan. There is, however, fear of
Pakistan based Islamic terrorists making more attacks on India. Pakistan
refuses to admit that this threat exists.
In eastern India (Bihar) police found a cache of Maoist weapons. Ammunition and equipment).
April 14, 2015: In eastern India (Chhattisgarh) Maoists began their
usual April-June offensive by killing 13 police (and wounding 18) in
three days of ambushes and raids. Maoist losses were, according to a
Maoist captured later, more than twice as large. The police brought in
reinforcements and during the rest of the month went on the offensive
against the local Maoists.
April 13, 2015
: India accused North Korea of continuing to sell Pakistan ballistic missile technology. It
is already known that North Korea paid renegade Pakistani scientists at
least $3.5 million for nuclear weapons technology in the late 1990s and
that technical cooperation between the two countries continued.
April 12, 2015: In northwest Pakistan (North Waziristan) American UAVs used missiles to kill four Islamic terrorists.
April 11, 2015: In southwest Pakistan (Baluchistan) tribal
separatists were responsible for the night attack on a camp for workers
building a bridge in a remote area. Twenty of the workers were killed
and three survived with wounds. Police soon found and killed 13
separatists, including most of those responsible for the massacre.
April 10, 2015:
Pakistan
released (on bail) Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi from jail. This enraged the
United States and India because Lakhvi was the planner for the 2008
Islamic terror massacre (166 dead) in Mumbai India. Shortly
thereafter Pakistan was sent convincing evidence and India asked that
Lakhvi be arrested and extradited for prosecution in India. Lakhvi was
arrested in 2009 but Pakistan refused to turn him over or prosecute him
themselves. Lakhvi was a hero to many Pakistanis because he is a widely
known leader of Lashkar-e-Taiba. This Islamic terror group specializes
in attacks in India and is very popular among middle and upper class
high school and college students. Lashkar i Taiba was organized and long
supported by the Pakistani military, mainly to organize and carry out
terrorist attacks in India. This is widely known in Pakistan where few
people will dare criticize the attacks inside India.