MAD: mutually assured destruction (Rev 16)

 
Regular missile tests maintain India-Pakistan status quo

New Delhi, May 15 Abheet Singh Sethi IANS1 day ago

Last month, India tested its indigenously-developed 3,000-km Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) Agni III, while Pakistan tested its 1,300-km Medium Range Ballistic Missile (MRBM) Ghauri.

Both missiles are part of an ever-growing arsenal capable of reaching every corner of rival territory (including India’s Andaman Islands) and carrying both conventional and nuclear warheads. Ironically, these tests are also a good way of ensuring the two countries do not go to war.
“Such tests are considered routine exercises for the two arch-rivals since they developed nuclear weapons capabilities in 1998,” according to Foreign Policy.

Nuclear weapons carried by ballistic missiles are strategic weapons of mass destruction meant primarily to scare and deter, usually ending in strategic stalemates between countries that possess such arsenals.

The possibility of “mutually assured destruction“, or MAD, as it is commonly known, also prevents their use on the subcontinent.

India’s ballistic-missile programme is driven by the threat it perceives from its nuclear armed neighbours Pakistan and China.

On May 11, 1998, India’s then prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee declared to the world that India had become a nuclear weapons state after successfully detonating three devices. Less than three weeks later, Pakistan also conducted nuclear weapons tests.

On the 17th year anniversary of India’s nuclear weapons test, Prime Minister Narendra Modi lauded the efforts of Indian scientists with the following tweet.

“We salute efforts of our scientists & political leadership behind the success of Pokhran Tests on this day in 1998. pic.twitter.com/vPVb1v6xxk — Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) May 11, 2015″

Almost 17 years later, the arch rivals each test fired ballistic missiles. These are strategic delivery systems capable of delivering either nuclear or conventional warheads deep inside each other’s territory, with the focus being predominantly on the former.

Land, fire and falcons

When it comes to Pakistan, India has developed/is developing the Prithvi and Agni series of surface-to-surface ballistic missiles.

The Prithvi series comprises three short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) with a range of 150-350 km, capable of targeting major Pakistani cities, such as Lahore, Sialkot, the capital Islamabad and Rawalpindi according to an IndiaSpend analysis.

The Prithvi series are road mobile and deployed. Development of the Prithvi series began in 1983.
Agni I and II, with ranges of 700 km and 2,000 km respectively, are capable of targeting almost all major Pakistani cities, including Lahore, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Multan, Peshawar, Karachi, Quetta and Gwadar.

The development of the Agni I began in 1999, and it was first tested in January 2002. The Agni I fills the gap between the SRBM Prithvi series and medium-range Agni II missile. It has been in service since 2004.

The Agni II is a medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM), first tested in April 1999. It allows India to attack all of Pakistan, although it falls short of major targets within China. Like Agni I, it too is highly accurate and is road and rail mobile.

Agni III, IV and V, with their longer ranges, might be able to reach all of Pakistan, but it can be safely said that they are directed more towards China.

Pakistan’s Hatf (named after the sword of Prophet Muhammad, pbuh) series of ballistic missiles have been developed–and is still under development–keeping India in mind. These missiles have varying ranges starting from 70 km, and go up to 2750 km. Some of these missiles are variants of existing Chinese and North Korean ballistic missiles, according to a report on Pakistan’s ballistic missile programme by the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bangalore.

Of these, the operational SRBM Ghaznavi (named after the 11th-century Afghan invader Mahmud Ghazni) is a shortened version of the Chinese M-11 missile and has a range of between 270 km to 350 km; this means it can target Ludhiana, Ahmedabad and the outer perimeter of Delhi.

The recently-tested Ghauri (named after 12th-century Afghan king Shahbuddin Ghauri, also known as Muhammad of Ghauri) is an MRBM, with a claimed range of 1,300 km and is “clearly and unambiguously North Korean in origin”, according to the NIAS report. The report adds that the missile is deployed and can target Delhi, Jaipur, Ahmedabad, Mumbai, Pune, Nagpur, Bhopal and Lucknow.

The Shaheen-III, a road-mobile IRBM was tested this March and has a claimed range of 2,750 km.
Addressing the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference 2015 in Washington, Lieutenant General Khalid Kidwai (retd), a former head of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons division, said Pakistan has developed the Shaheen III to prevent India from attaining a nuclear second-strike capability from the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

(In arrangement with IndiaSpend.org, a data-driven, non-profit, public-interest journalism platform, with which Abheet Singh Sethi is a policy analyst. The views expressed are personal. Additional inputs from Ramya Panuganty, junior research fellow, National Institute of Advanced Studies)

–IANS/IndiaSpend
abheet/vm

Pakistan Gains Nuclear Advantage (Daniel 8:8)

Sound bytes: ‘ Pakistan is engaged in nuclear competition’

Sadia Tasleem

Pakistan on March 9 test-fired Shaheen III, a nuclear-capable ballistic missile, into the Arabian Sea. Lieutenant General Zubair Mahmood Hayat, director general of the strategic plans division, termed it a major step towards strengthening Pakistan’s deterrence capability. 

Dawn got in touch with Sadia Tasleem, Robin Copeland Memorial Fellow for non-proliferation and lecturer at the department of defence and strategic studies, Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad, via email to discuss Pakistan’s rapidly growing nuclear programme.

Q. Pakistan recently test-fired nuclear-capable surface-to-surface ballistic missile Shaheen III. Why did it do so when Pakistan adheres to minimum credible deterrence policy?

A. The ISPR statement explains the recent testing as a step that will further strengthen Pakistan’s deterrence capability. The recently tested Shaheen III with a declared range of approximately 1,700 miles has the ability to hit the farthest parts of India. In Pakistani perception, increasing India’s vulnerability would help strengthen deterrence.

As far as “minimum credible deterrence” is concerned, it is important to know how Pakistan defines it.

Pakistan considers minimum credible deterrence as a dynamic as opposed to a quantitatively definable concept. It implies that Pakistan will keep calculating its nuclear deterrence requirements based on the Indian nuclear related developments. This not only affects the criteria for what is minimum yet credible but also often makes “minimum” and “credible” irreconcilable.

Q. Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence policy seems to be India-centric. Is India’s nuclear deterrence policy apparently Pakistan-centric?

A. India has larger objectives in the region and beyond. Its nuclear policy is aimed at multiple actors.

Q. India continues to increase its nuclear arsenal. Does that mean Pakistan will also continue to do so and not set a bar?

A. What Pakistan will or will not do will in the long run depends not only upon its willingness or unwillingness to do certain things but also upon many other variables including the availability of resources, infrastructure and national priorities. However, as long as Pakistan perceives each Indian development as destabilising, it will continue to make an effort to respond to them. Current trends suggest that Pakistan is deeply concerned about Indian developments and it is trying to, if not, match to at least counter them in whatever ways possible.

Q. Is Pakistan doing the right thing in terms of its national security strategy by test-firing Shaheen-III and to quote the ISPR “strengthening the country’s deterrence capability”?

A. The answer to this question largely depends on our worldview and understanding of the concept of deterrence. Anyone who looks at diversity of weapon systems and nuclear-armed missiles as a fundamental requirement for making deterrence credible would approve of decisions like test-firing of missiles with different ranges. However, those who look at deterrence as largely a psychological phenomenon in which even the rudimentary capabilities would make as much or as little difference as more weapons would consider such actions redundant. The question that may follow then is, should Pakistan pay the cost of redundancy?

Q. Are we engaging in a nuclear arms race?

A. India and Pakistan are not engaged in a traditional arms race — where two actors try to outpace each other. In case of Pakistan, we appear rather to be engaged in a nuclear competition.

Q. Will adding more nuclear-capable missiles increase the quality of stability of the country?

A. The answer to this question also varies depending on how deterrence and stability are defined. In my view, however, adding more nuclear capable missiles may not necessarily increase stability. We need to carefully analyse if the introduction of a new weapon system strengthens deterrence only in an abstract sense or does it make any concrete difference in the perception (and behaviour) of the actor we intend to deter.

Published in Dawn, March 15th, 2015

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India And Pakistan Exchange Fire Nuclear Capable Missiles

India and Pakistan conduct user trials of nuclear-capable missiles

18 November 2014

The Indian Air Force (IAF) has conducted yet another launch of the Akash nuclear capable supersonic missile from the launch complex III of Integrated Test Range (ITR) at Chandipur, Odhisa, India.

Undertaken as part of a routine user trial, the test featured an air force version of Akash, and successfully met its objectives.

Akash mission director G Chandramouli was quoted by The Hindu as saying the missile flew at a supersonic speed over a distance of 14km prior to destroying a target at a low-altitude of 1.2km.
Called para flare, the target was reportedly dropped by a MiG-27 fighter aircraft belonging to the air force.

ITR director M V K V Prasad told Press Trust of India that the trial of was fully successful, saying: “Some more similar trials of the missile will be conducted in this week.”

The trial comes on the same day as the Pakistani military conducted a successful test launch of the upgraded version of its Shaheen I intermediate range ballistic missile.

Carried out from an undisclosed location with impact point in Arabian Sea, the trial was aimed at re-validating various design and technical parameters of Shaheen IA weapon system.

 

“The trial comes on the same day as the Pakistani military conducted a successful test launch of the upgraded version of its Shaheen I intermediate range ballistic missile.”

Shaheen1A missile can carry nuclear and conventional warheads to a range of 900km, whereas Akash is an all-weather surface-to-air missile system capable of engaging aerial threats up to a distance of 25km.

Developed by Defence Research and Development Organisation and Bharat Electronics Limited as part of the integrated guided missile development programme, Akash has already entered into IAF’s operational service, and is awaiting induction into the Indian Army.

Since last week, both Indian and Pakistan have conducted a series of missile launches to evaluate the performance of the domestically built weapons systems.

While India test-fired Dhanush and Prithvi-II ballistic missiles from test ranges in the state of Odhisa, the Pakistani Army conducted operational launch of Shaheen-II intermediate range ballistic missile from an undisclosed location.

Tit for Tat: Pakistan Fires Another Nuclear Capable Missile

Pakistan test-fires nuclear capable ballistic missile Hatf IV

IndiaToday.in  New Delhi, November 17, 2014 | UPDATED 12:14 IST

Shaheen 1A or Hatf IV ballistic missile Pakistan on Monday successfully test-fired Hatf IV ballistic missile with a range of 900 kilometers.

The launch of Shaheen 1A or Hatf IV ballistic missile was aimed at re-validating various design and technical parameters of the weapon system.

The military said that the impact point of the launch was in the Arabian Sea in the south.

Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Muhammad Zakaullah, Director General Strategic Plans Division, Lt Gen Zubair Mahmood Hayat, Commander Army Strategic Forces Command and senior officers from the strategic forces, scientists and engineers of strategic organissations witnessed the launch.

Last week Pakistan successfully test fired Shaheen-II, also called Hatf VI, capable of carrying nuclear and conventional warheads to targets as far as 1,500 kilometers.

Admiral Zakaullah said Shaheen-1A with its highly accurate and indigenously developed guidance system is amongst the most accurate Missile System.

The admiral reiterated Pakistan’s desire for peaceful co-existence in the region.

President Mamnoon Hussain and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif appreciated the successful test launch.

Pakistani Horn Launches Another Nuclear Capable Missile

Pakistan Just Successfully Tested A Nuclear-Capable Ballistic Missile

Pierre Bienaimé0Nov 13, 2014, 10.39 PM

 

Pakistan successfully tested an intermediate-range ballistic missile today with an impact point in the Persian Gulf. The newly tested version of the Shaheen-II ballistic missile, which is roughly equivalent to the US’s Pershing II missiles, can carry either conventional or nuclear warheads according to ISPR, the Pakistani army’s public relations arm.The announcement seems to confirm expert analysis that the country is aiming to build long-range delivery systems for tactical nuclear weapons – smaller warheads built for use in a battlefield or active combat scenario, rather than for strikes on cities or infrastructure.

Addressing scientists, engineers, and military officers viewing the test site, lieutenant general Zubair Mahmood Hayat still reiterated Pakistan’s stance that the goal of its strides in ballistic capability is deterrence – presumably against any rash military action by India, with which Pakistan has a number of outstanding territorial and security-related disputes.

Pakistani news media put the range of the Shaheen-II at 1,500 kilometers, though the Federation of American Scientists estimates it may be able to travel 2,000 kilometers or more depending on its payload. One Indian television news program included a map showing the several India’s cities that fall within the missile’s now-proven range.

The test is the latest development in a long-running arms race between Pakistan and its neighbor.

In 1999 Pakistan tested a shorter-ranged Shaheen missile that was also capable of carrying nuclear weapons. After that test, Pakistan’s officials cited a concern for preserving “strategic balance in south Asia” – an objective that has India, Pakistan’s larger, more populous, more powerful, and also nuclear-armed rival, squarely in mind.

The missile program has established that strategic balance with India, Arif Rafiq, a researcher at the Middle East Institute, told Business Insider in September.

“Since India and Pakistan tested nuclear weapons in 1998, there has been a greater level of restraint in terms of the behavior of both countries when it comes to war,” Rafiq said. “But at the same time they also taken great measures to build up their nuclear arsenal and further develop or strengthen or diversify their launch capability.”

While nuclear development continues, India and Pakistan have become the world’s first and third largest arms importers, respectively.