Iraq’s borders are disappearing: this is a disaster

Islamic State of Iraq
The
Islamic State of Iraq and greater Syria
(ISIS) is shredding Iraq. After seizing the northern city of Mosul on
Monday, on Tuesday ISIS stormed down Iraq’s route 1 highway to take
Tikrit. This victory has left them emboldened and only 110 miles from
Baghdad. The Iraqi military seemingly overrun, Nouri al-Maliki’s
government is greatly concerned.
Unfortunately, the disaster isn’t confined to Iraq. After all, ISIS
isn’t interested in Iraq per se. Instead, it seeks a caliphate that
stretches from western Syria to Iraq’s eastern border with Iran. A
dominion preserved under an iron fist of brutality (
think Fallujah 2004) and a base from which to
export global terrorism.
What’s happening in Iraq and Syria today is the nightmare that drove
George W Bush to gamble everything on his January 2007 surge. He knew
that Iraq’s collapse might enable Al-Qaeda in Iraq to rip the Middle
East apart. And today
Al-Qaeda in Iraq’s successor – ISIS – have never been closer to their dream.
ISIS are pure terrorists: their strategy is to use extreme violence to drive Iraq into a sectarian melee.
The group knows that with each atrocity it commits, Iraq’s geographic
borders and government institutions lose form. That with each Shia
market it bombs, Iraq moves closer to the bloody civil war of 2006 (Shia
terrorist groups are
far from silent).
That with each ISIS victory, Iraq’s basic viability becomes ever more
tenuous. Exacerbating the crisis is Maliki’s long term authoritarianism:
this has empowered ISIS.
ISIS believes that if it can push Maliki, he’ll make policy from his
own paranoia. It hopes he’ll overreact: killing Sunni civilians and
attracting support to the ISIS banner. Already a deeply paranoid man,
the Iraqi Prime Minister faces a severe test.
A big question follows. What will Maliki do next?
Though it’s a casual refrain to label Maliki an Iranian puppet, the
truth of his relationship with the Islamic republic is far more complex.
While Maliki finds support from Iran, he’s shown on numerous occasions
that he’s his own man. Nevertheless, ISIS has forced Maliki into a
crucible of two choices. On the one hand, he can attempt to restrain
ISIS with his security forces and the support of
certain Sunni tribes. Conversely, Maliki could reach out to a foreign party for backup. Without US guidance he’s likely to go for the second option.
Enter Iran.
Here we must forget Rouhani. Iran’s foreign-security policy is ultimately led by
Ayatollah Khamenei and his revolutionary project. In polar opposition to ISIS, Iran pursues an arc of
Khomeinism from Lebanon to Iraq and Bahrain. And while Iran is more calculating than ISIS, its comfort with
extreme violence is
nevertheless undeniable. Indeed, in its indiscriminate conflict in
Syria, Iran has slaughtered countless civilians. The great risk is that
Maliki will now jump into open
Iranian arms and support their wholly sectarian war against Iraq’s Sunni population.
If that happens, just as in Syria, Iraqi society will collapse. In
that hellhole, questions of borders, consensus, peace and the future
would become irrelevant: victims of what Clausewitz would describe as
absolute war.
Obviously, this places the West in a serious bind. Whatever some might say, forming an alliance with Iran to fight ISIS
would be a disaster.
Still, America cannot allow Iraq to collapse. Too much of our blood and
our allies’ blood has already been spilled for that nation’s future.
Those sacrifices must not be in vain. Correspondingly, the US should
adopt a new,
comprehensive regional strategy.
Recognising that only the US government has the intelligence and
logistics capabilities Iraq so desperately needs, Obama should support
Maliki with the caveat that the Iraqi leader make reciprocal
concessions. These must include power transfers to Iraqi Sunni-centered
political parties and the establishment of independent democratic
institutions that can cool sectarian flames over the longer term. These
commitments must take form beyond words.
Regardless,
we’ve heard for far too long
that our absence from the Middle East would best serve our interests.
Now we’re learning the opposite is true. No one wants more Iraq wars,
but we must face
the geopolitical disaster unfolding before us.