Saudis Will Be Nuclear, But Not With Pakistan (Dan 7&8)

Pakistan Declines to Join Saudi Arabia’s Anti-Iran Alliance

Pakistan won’t help guard Saudi Arabia’s border with northern Yemen, which is controlled by Iranian-backed Houthi Shiite forces.

March 16, 2015

By: Bruce Riedel, Contributor for Al-Monitor
Al-Monitor

Saudi Arabia’s campaign to build a broad Sunni alliance to contain Iran has apparently suffered at least a setback from Pakistan. Islamabad has opted, at least for now, to avoid becoming entangled in the sectarian cold war between Riyadh and Tehran.

Earlier this month, Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was invited to the kingdom for urgent talks with King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud and his advisers. The king met Sharif at the airport to underscore the importance of the talks. The main topic was Iranian aggression in the Arab world and the impending deadline for the P5+1 negotiations on Iran’s nuclear project. The king wanted firm assurances from Sharif that Pakistan would align itself with Saudi Arabia and its Sunni Arab allies against Iran, especially in the proxy war now underway in Yemen.

Salman specifically wanted a Pakistani military contingent to deploy to the kingdom to help defend the vulnerable southwest border with Zaydi Houthi-controlled north Yemen and serve as a trip-wire force to deter Iranian aggression. There is precedent for a Pakistani army expeditionary force in Saudi Arabia. After the Iranian Revolution, Pakistani dictator Mohammad Zia ul-Haq deployed an elite Pakistani armored brigade to the kingdom at King Fahd’s request to deter any threats to the country. In all, some 40,000 Pakistanis served in the brigade over most of a decade. Today only some Pakistani advisers and experts serve in the kingdom.

According to Pakistani sources, Sharif has reluctantly decided not to send troops to Saudi Arabia for now. Sharif promised closer counterterrorism and military cooperation but no troops for the immediate future. Pakistan also declined to move its embassy in Yemen from Sanaa to Aden as the Saudis and the Gulf Cooperation Council states have done to distance themselves from the Houthis.

The Pakistanis are arguing their military is already overstretched facing the traditional enemy, India, and the increasing threat from the Pakistani Taliban. Pakistan has its own serious sectarian tensions and violence. About 20% of Pakistanis are Shiite and sectarian violence has been intensifying in recent years. Groups linked to al-Qaeda such as Lashkar-e-Jhangvi have targeted Shiite mosques and schools for suicide bombings. Iran also has proxies in Pakistan that have attacked Sunni targets in the past. Faced with these difficulties at home, Sharif is telling Salman not now for troops.

Sharif is by nature a cautious man and a very deliberate decision-maker. He is carefully leaving open the option of deploying troops to the kingdom in the future if the security situation gets worse. He will also be clear with the king that Pakistan remains a close Saudi ally. The ambiguous and mysterious Pakistani nuclear connection with Saudi Arabia will remain in the background.

The king has doubled down on his Egyptian connection this month. Crown Prince Muqrin pledged $4 billion in investment in Egypt at the Sharm el-Sheikh conference this week, and Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates each pledged the same. But Egypt, too, is reluctant to send troops, especially for operations around Yemen. Egyptians still have bitter memories of their disastrous intervention in Yemen in the 1960s. Ironically, the Egyptians then were fighting Saudi-backed Zaydi royalists.
So for now Saudi Defense Minister Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the king’s son, will have to plan on dealing with Houthi threats on the border alone with Saudi troops. They have not fared well in past clashes with the Houthis.

Bruce Riedel is director of the Intelligence Project at the Brookings Institution. His most recent book is “What We Won: America’s Secret War in Afghanistan, 1979-1989.”

Even China Realizes The Dangers Of A Nuclear Iran (Daniel 8:3)

China opposes extending Iran nuclear deadline

20 hours ago BY AGENCIES

 

In a joint news conference with Iranian FM, Chinese FM hopes deadline will not be extended for a third time

China is against another extension of the deadline for Iran to reach a deal with world powers in talks on its nuclear programme, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in Tehran Sunday.

“They have been extended twice, we hope that they will not be for a third time,” Wang said at a joint news conference with Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif.

Wang said the talks between Iran and the P5+1 powers (the United States, Russia, China, Britain and France plus Germany) were a “historic opportunity” to resolve the longstanding dispute over Tehran’s nuclear efforts.

“The negotiations have seen positive progress,” he said, but “they have become more difficult and complicated” as they near conclusion.

Two deadlines for a permanent agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme have been missed since an interim deal was reached in November 2013.

Negotiators are now working toward reaching the political outline of a deal by March 31, with the cut-off point for the technical details of a comprehensive accord by June 30.

Western powers accuse Iran of seeking to develop a nuclear weapon—a charge Tehran denies.

Disagreements in the talks centre on the extent of nuclear activities Iran will be allowed to continue and the timetable for the lifting of sanctions imposed on Tehran over its nuclear efforts.

Zarif also said “the opportunity must be seized” for a deal and Iran was ready “to show flexibility to reassure the P5+1 group”.

Iran’s Parliament Will Not Concede Nukes

Iran not to give in to restrictions on peaceful nuclear program: Majlis speaker

Oct 26,2014

TEHRAN, Oct. 26 (Xinhua) — Tehran will not give in to demands from the world powers for restrictions on its “peaceful” nuclear program, Iran’s Majlis (parliament) speaker was quoted as saying by Tasnim news agency on Sunday.

The Islamic republic will not accept any limitation on its nuclear case but it is open to “logical” transparency measures asserted by the Iranian officials, Ali Larijani said at an open session of the Majlis.

He urged the other parties engaged in the nuclear talks to avoid resorting to what he called “deceptive acts” in the course of negotiations.

On Saturday, Abbas Araqchi, senior Iranian nuclear negotiator, said Iran would not retreat an iota from its nuclear rights in the run-up to a possible comprehensive deal with powers.

Iran and the so-called P5+1 group, which includes Great Britain, China, France, Russia, the United States plus Germany, agreed in July to extend the talks for another four months till Nov. 24, as they could not narrow down significant gaps on core issues during the past six months.

The two sides met again last week for three days in Austria’s Vienna without any major breakthrough.

The Iranian Horn Obviously Has A Lot To Hide

Iran defends refusal to let in UN nuclear expert

Wednesday, 08 October 2014 17:12

Posted by Imaduddin

VIENNA: Iran has dismissed criticism by the International Atomic Energy Agency of its refusal to let one IAEA expert into the country as part of a team investigating allegations of nuclear weapons research.

Tehran said it had a sovereign right to decide who to let onto its territory. But its failure to issue a visa to an IAEA official, that diplomatic sources said was probably a Western atomic bomb expert, may add to longstanding Western suspicions it is stonewalling the U.N. agency’s inquiry.

The IAEA said last month that Iran had not issued a visa for one member of a team that visited Tehran on Aug. 31 to try to advance the investigation into what the U.N. agency calls the possible military dimensions of the country’s nuclear programme.

It was the third time the person, whom it did not identify, had not obtained an entry permit.

It is important, the IAEA added in a Sept. 5 report on Iran’s nuclear programme, that “any staff member identified by the agency with the requisite expertise is able to participate in the agency’s technical activities”.

But, in a statement distributed to IAEA member states this week, Iran said that issuing visas was “our sovereign national right and we will issue it when we deem it appropriate”.

The IAEA has for years been trying to investigate allegations that Iran has worked on designing a nuclear bomb.

Iran says its nuclear work is a peaceful, but suspicions in the West that the civil nuclear programme is a front for weapons development have led to punishing economic sanctions, which Tehran hopes will be lifted if ongoing negotiations with world powers succeed in ending the standoff.

IAEA member states have the right to deny access to individual inspectors proposed by the U.N. agency, and Iran has for several years blocked staff from some Western nations, including the United States, to check its nuclear sites.

A separate, high-level IAEA team in charge of the Iran inquiry – which at least on some occasions has included officials from France, the United States and Britain – has held several meetings in Tehran since early 2012, including one this week.

NUCLEAR “AMBIGUITIES”

Western officials say Iran needs to cooperate with the IAEA probe if it wants to reach a diplomatic deal with world powers.

Last month’s IAEA report said Iran had failed to answer questions about possibly military dimensions of its nuclear programme by an agreed Aug. 25 deadline, in a possible setback for the broader diplomacy between Iran and the United States, France, Germany, Britain, China and Russia.

Iran rejects the accusations as baseless. But it has promised, since Hassan Rouhani, seen as a pragmatist, became president last year on a platform to end its international isolation, to work with the IAEA to clear up the suspicions.

“We continue to cooperate with the IAEA on some of the ambiguities in order to clarify and resolve them,” said the Iranian communique to IAEA member countries, which was dated Sept. 19 but only posted on the IAEA’s website this week.

While the powers seek to limit the size of Iran’s future nuclear programme – and thereby extend the time it would need for any bid to amass fissile material for a weapon – the IAEA is investigating alleged research and experiments in the past that could be used to make the bomb itself.