China upgrades her nuclear horn with an eye on Taiwan: Daniel 7

New satellite photos show China is upgrading its nuclear test site in Xinjiang. Image: Twitter

China upgrades nuke test site with an eye on Taiwan

Construction at Lop Nur test site could signal resumption of Chinese nuclear tests as tensions over Taiwan reach new boiling point

by Gabriel Honrada August 9, 2022

Satellite photos obtained by Nikkei last week show that China is rapidly expanding its nuclear test facilities in western Xinjiang, sparking fears of a renewed nuclear arms race with the US as tensions boil over Taiwan.

The Nikkei report states that a satellite hovering at 450 kilometers detected extensive construction at the Lop Nur test site, a dried salt lakebed in the arid and restive Xinjiang region that borders Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

The report said that China may be building a sixth tunnel for underground testing, evidenced by broken rocks piled nearby and extensive coverings erected on a nearby mountainside. The satellite photos also show power cables, possible storage facilities for high explosives and unpaved roads from command centers.

An unnamed expert from US private geospatial analysis company AllSource Analysis told Nikkei that these developments enable China to conduct nuclear-related tests anytime. The power lines and road system now connect Lop Nur’s western military nuclear test facilities to new possible test areas in the east.

Nikkei suggested that evidence of a sixth test tunnel points to China’s planned resumption of nuclear tests, the last of which was conducted in 1996.

Nobumasa Akiyama, a professor of East Asian security at Hitotsubashi University, told Nikkei that China’s accelerated development of the Lop Nur test site means it intends to deter US intervention in an invasion of Taiwan by threatening the use of small nuclear weapons.

Nikkei also notes that maritime control will be the primary military issue in any invasion of Taiwan. Small nuclear weapons with limited strike capabilities would be sufficient for China to ward off US aircraft carriers. This strategy mirrors that of Russia in Ukraine, with its threat of nuclear escalation used as strategic cover to pursue conventional military operations.While still trailing the US in nuclear weapons strength, experts say China is increasing its capability across the board. Credit: Handout.

The development may be part of China’s more extensive efforts to modernize its nuclear arsenal for a Taiwan scenario. Asia Times has previously reported on other stories regarding China’s nuclear arsenal, including its building of land-based nuclear silos, rail-based nukes, ballistic missile submarines and nuclear-armed stealth bombers at a rapid-fire pace.

Taiwanese and US officials have opined that China may invade Taiwan sooner than anticipated, suggesting dates as soon as 2025, 2027 and 2030.

“By 2025, China will bring the cost and attrition to its lowest. It has the capacity now, but it will not start a war easily, having to take many other things into consideration,” said Taiwan’s Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng in a 2021 article in The Guardian.

General Mark Milley, US chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, noted in a 2021 US Naval Institute (USNI) article that China wants to acquire the military capabilities to invade and hold Taiwan by 2027. His assessment was based in part by Chinese President Xi Jinping’s speech calling for an acceleration of China’s military modernization and capabilities to seize Taiwan.

Moreover, US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines mentioned in a 2022 CNN articlethat Taiwan faces an acute China threat between the present and 2030, noting that China is working hard to put itself in a military position to take Taiwan over a US military intervention. However, Haines declined to comment on China’s planned timeline for its move against Taiwan.

Internal factors such as flaws in China’s political system, slowing economic growth, and a shirking population may give China an added sense of urgency to strike a decisive blow against Taiwan within an accelerated timeframe.

In a 2022 Taipei Times article, Jerome Keating notes that one-party authoritarian states such as China and Russia are vulnerable to power struggles as their leaders often lack graceful exit strategies as institutionalized in democratic states.

Moreover, he notes that as strongmen leaders get to the top, they make numerous enemies in the process, which gives them a sense of urgency to stay in power for their safety.

Keating mentions Xi had made many enemies during his rise to power and that there had at least been seven attempts on his life. However, he also notes that with no clear successor in sight, settling the Taiwan issue before 2027 would cement his legitimacy and extend his hold on power.

In that connection, China’s slowing economy may give it further incentive to act on Taiwan sooner rather than later. In a 2022 Axios article, Matt Philips notes that economic analysts doubt that China will regain its breakneck economic development as seen in the 1990s and 2000s, which lifted millions of Chinese out of poverty.Chinese President Xi Jinping inspects a joint military exercise in the South China Sea in April 2018. Photo: Xinhua

With limited options to restart economic growth, Philips notes that Xi may have shifted his source of legitimacy from boosting economic growth to a broader sense of national prestige by retaking Taiwan and projecting China’s power on the world stage. 

However, he also cautions that China’s escalation in the Taiwan Strait is not to provide a distraction from its present economic woes, as since 1949 China has always been very sensitive about Taiwan’s international status.

China’s slowing population growth may also weaken its military in the long run, adding another reason for resolving the Taiwan issue before the debilitating effects of demographic decline hit its military. A 2021 Taiwan News article reports that 18% of China’s population is over 60 years old, and there were only 8.5 live births per 1000 in 2020, a massive drop from 18 per 1000 in 1978.

In addition, high living costs and a hyper-competitive education system have forced many Chinese to put off having children, resulting in a significant population decline.

The same source notes that a shrinking manpower pool and Chinese youth’s preference to enter technology rather than military fields has motivated projects to bring aging veterans back to active duty.

In the last analysis, China’s push to accelerate its nuclear weapons program to deter a US intervention in a Taiwan scenario may be driven equally by military and internal factors.

Putin Likely to Nuke Europe: Revelation 16

 

Sir Richard Barrons said Vladimir Putin could use Iskander missiles in Ukraine if he thought Russia was heading for military defeat. Reuters

Putin ‘likely to fire nuclear missile in Ukraine if he senses military defeat’

British general predicts catastrophic decision by Russian leader in event of more strategic gains by Kyiv’s forces

Thomas Harding

Aug 07, 2022

The tangible prospect of defeat in Ukraine has increased the likelihood of Russia using nuclear weapons in the conflict, a former British general said.

Gen Sir Richard Barrons said it was “likely” that Russian President Vladimir Putin would make the fraught decision to order a devastating attack to ward off military disaster for his country.

Moscow would probably use a 10-kilotonne warhead set on an Iskander missile, he said, creating a massive fireball incinerating people and buildings within 150 metres of ground zero, while causing third-degree burns within a 1.6-kilometre radius.

Kyiv’s forces recent gains, especially around the Russian-held city of Kherson, have raised the possibility of Russia facing “catastrophic success for Ukraine”, Sir Richard wrote in The Times, but if “Putin senses strategic defeat, he is likely to employ tactical nuclear weapons”.

A nuclear attack would “break an enormous taboo”, being the first use of the weapons since the US dropped two atom bombs on Japan in 1945, but it was not “inconceivable to Russians if the ends justify it in their eyes”. The Hiroshima blast stemmed from a 15-kilotonne bomb that killed 146,000 people.

The potential for a “catastrophic miscalculation” by Moscow could come as early as spring next year if its forces were being pushed out of Ukraine, said the former head of Britain’s Joint Forces Command.

The retired officer’s warning comes after concerns raised by western officials, who told The National late last month that “Russia had definitively lost the initiative” and faced with defeat had “other tools available which it could choose to employ which would escalate the situation”.

“It comes down to how threatened the Russian state feels,” Sir Richard said. “The more threatened or cornered it becomes, the more likely it will be to reach for essentially the types of tools [nuclear weapons] that you’re talking about.”

President Vladimir Putin oversees the test of a new Russian hypersonic missile system called Avangard, which can carry nuclear and conventional warheads, in Moscow. Reuters

Sir Richard wrote that Russian doctrine was to use small nuclear weapons “to impose unacceptable damage on an opponent as a means of coercion”, particularly when “the existence of the state is in question”.

To avoid the nuclear radiation from a ground detonation, it would likely be an air blast from 700 metres that fired over a town such as Kramatorsk would create a fatal radiation dose to anyone within 1km.

The blast would collapse buildings, cause third-degree burns to anyone within 1.6km and smash windows at 4km.

A warhead could also be dropped on a Ukrainian brigade of up to 5,000 personnel, causing mass casualties.

While a nuclear strike would “create great sense of peril around the world”, a smaller device would “not physically touch areas beyond the borders of Ukraine”, Sir Richard said.

“These weapons exist for just the sort of circumstances the war in Ukraine may lead to, so nobody should claim total surprise if they are used.”

Were such a devastating assault to materialise, defence alliance Nato might escalate efforts to remove Mr Putin from power.

While it was unlikely to lead to all-out nuclear Armageddon between the great powers, Sir Richard warned it could lead to countries such as India and Pakistan becoming more willing to use nuclear weapons on each other.

Russian Horn Pushes For Nuclear War: Revelation 16

‘Will not back down’ Putin’s chilling nuclear warning as Russia points to ‘doctrine’

PUTIN’S Russia has issued a chilling warning outlining the scenarios in which the Kremlin would use a nuclear weapon.

By MILLIE COOKE

12:58, Thu, Aug 4, 2022 | UPDATED: 13:03, Thu, Aug 4, 2022

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The Kremlin warned that it could use the lethal weapons “if western countries try to test our resolve”. Russian diplomat Alexander Trofimov listed two “hypothetical scenarios” which could trigger a nuclear response. Speaking at the nuclear non-proliferation conference on Tuesday, Mr Trofimov denied that Russia has threatened to use its nuclear arsenal against Ukraine.

He said this is “utterly unfounded, detached from reality and unacceptable”.

However, he said Russia could use nuclear weapons “in response to weapons of mass destruction or a conventional weapons attack that threatened the existence of the Russian state”.

He added: “None of these two hypothetical scenarios is relevant to the situation in Ukraine”.

However, he accused NATO countries of a “fierce hybrid confrontation” against Russia that now “dangerously balances on the edge of an open military clash”.

Russia has issued a chilling warning suggesting that they may resort to nuclear weapons (Image: Getty)

The Kremlin warned that it could use the weapons ‘if western countries try to test our resolve’ (Image: Getty)

He added: “Such a move would be able to trigger one of the two emergency scenarios described in our doctrine.

“We obviously stand for preventing this, but if western countries try to test our resolve, Russia will not back down.”

The day before, US President Joe Biden had said he was ready to pursue a new nuclear arms deal with Russia, calling on Moscow to “act in good faith”.

The conference is the second time this week Russia has accused the US of playing a direct role in the Ukraine war. 

64 Percent: China Has Ability to Nuke US: Daniel 7

64 Percent: China Has Ability to Launch Nukes That Could Reach US

By Scott RasmussenThursday, 04 August 2022 11:22 AM EDTCurrent | Bio | Archive

August 4, 2022: Sixty-four percent (64%) of voters believe that China has the capability to launch nuclear weapons that could reach the United States. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 9% think they do not, and 26% are not sure.

However, the survey also found that 59% think it is likely that, if China launched such an attack, U.S. defense systems could stop those weapons. Twenty-three percent (23%) say that is not likely, and 19% are not sure.

Methodology
The survey of 1,200 registered voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on July 19-21, 2022. Fieldwork for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of registered voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Note: Neither Scott Rasmussen, ScottRasmussen.com, nor RMG Research, Inc. have any affiliation with Rasmussen Reports. While Scott Rasmussen founded that firm, he left nearly a decade ago and has had no involvement since that time.

Scott Rasmussen is founder and president of the Rasmussen Media Group. He is a political analyst, author, public speaker, independent public opinion pollster and columnist for Creators Syndicate. Read Scott Rasmussen’s Reports

One miscalculation away from the first nuclear war: Revelation 8

 

Opinion: One miscalculation away from nuclear holocaust

Opinion by David A. Andelman

Updated 4:17 AM ET, Thu August 4, 2022

David A. Andelman, a contributor to CNN, twice winner of the Deadline Club Award, is a chevalier of the French Legion of Honor, author of “A Red Line in the Sand: Diplomacy, Strategy, and the History of Wars That Might Still Happen” and blogs at Andelman Unleashed. He formerly was a correspondent for The New York Times and CBS News in Europe and Asia. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion at CNN.

(CNN)United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Gutteres is hardly a global figure given to panic, or hyperbole for that matter. But rarely has he seemed quite so afraid.

“Humanity is just one misunderstanding, one miscalculation away from nuclear annihilation,” Gutteres said this week. The way he and a growing number of those who think deeply about nuclear issues and their consequences see it, the world is plunging headlong towards potential Armageddon, with little regard to the consequences of their actions, or inaction.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi seems to have paid little heed to such fears as she moved blithely ahead with her visit to Taiwan in the face of dire warnings from the leadership of mainland China, whose arsenal of 350 nuclear weapons lies just across a narrow strait. And this in the context of bellicose words and actions from Russian President Vladimir Putin on Ukraine and Kim Jong Un’s ongoing nuclear rhetoric and actions in nearby North Korea.

Gutteres’s fears, of course, were broader and deeper than this single Asian flashpoint. He was addressing a world conference of the nations that have signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons — a gathering delayed by two years due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Side view of the ‘Fat Man’ atomic bomb, the kind that the US dropped on Nagasaki, Japan, on August 9, 1945, killing thousands of people during the Second World War.

Signed on July 1, 1968, by 93 nations, and in force two years later, the treaty now has 191 adherents. Yet never has it seemed more vulnerable, if not more relevant, than today.

The context, as Gutteres observed, was that this year’s conference — the 10th since its signing — “occurs at a time of nuclear danger not seen since the height of the Cold War.”

Indeed, the very foundations of global security that have effectively guaranteed the peace since the explosion of the “Fat Man” plutonium device — the last ever detonated in battle over Nagasaki on August 9, 1945 — have been deeply eroded.

The United States was, and remains, the only nation ever to have detonated a nuclear weapon in a war. The Soviet Union tested its first device four years later.

In July 1959, then-French President Charles de Gaulle sent the Count Alexandre de Marenches, the co-author of our book, “The Fourth World War” to Washington, to ask US President Dwight Eisenhower to give France the secrets that would allow the French to join the nuclear club. Ike politely but firmly declined.

Still, in less than a year, France had exploded its first nuclear device, eight years after the British.

Russia was already en route to equalizing this balance. By the early 1960s, the Kremlin had deployed the first of what would be an arsenal of more than 3,000 nuclear weapons to Ukraine, where some of the first steps toward a Soviet bomb had been taken in Ukrainian institutes located in the now deeply contested cities of Kharkiv and Donetsk. More Soviet weapons then found their way to Belarus and Kazakhstan.

By the mid-1960s, on the western side of the Iron Curtain there were three nuclear powers (the US, Britain and France), on the eastern side, four ostensibily nuclear-armed states, though utterly controlled by the Kremlin. Effectively, there were just two nuclear blocs.

There are many who look back on that era as the good old days of nuclear confrontation — and with good reason. Each side, for decades, possessed enough nuclear weapons — as many as 41,000 for the USSR and 31,000 for the US at their respective peaks — to have utterly obliterated the other side, not to mention all life on earth. This led to the concept of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD).

Since then, arms control agreements have reduced the size of these arsenals dramatically — to levels still able to incinerate the earth, but without reducing much of the tension. While arsenals have shrunk since the Cold War, the number of countries with nuclear weapons has proliferated.

How is it at all possible to have MAD when you have nuclear weapons in the hands of nine powers? (The countries in question are the US, Britain, France, Israel, Pakistan, India, Russia, China, and North Korea.) Within this group of nations, there are pockets of mutually assured destruction. Some 93% of all the world’s 13,900 nuclear weapons are still controlled by Washington and Moscow.

To a degree, MAD prevails there, and indeed the prospect of mutually assured destruction comprises a good part of what has deterred Pakistan and India from launching their arsenals at each other during any of three Indo-Pakistani wars or other regular confrontations across their contested borders.

The original cover of the UK government’s 1980 guide to surviving a nuclear attack.

A broader threat, though, has only expanded. How likely is it that given some existential challenge, Russia or even China, which arrived in the nuclear club in 1964, might not deploy a weapon of their own? Certainly, Russia has issued such a threat in Ukraine. Just weeks before its invasion of Ukraine, Russia conducted maneuvers with nuclear units, while Putin announced that his nuclear deterrent forces were being placed on a “special regime of alert.”

And then there are the peripheral nuclear powers. While most of the world has been preoccupied with Ukraine, Taiwan, and terrorist leaders in Afghanistan, North Korea has continued to launch missiles and threaten new rounds of nuclear tests. On Victory Day last month, Kim Jong Un warned he was “ready to mobilize” his nuclear deterrent.

Finally, we are potentially within weeks of a new round of escalations, this time involving Iran. Though Secretary of State Antony Blinken has embraced a return to the conference table to restore the nuclear accord that was restraining Iran’s headlong dash toward a nuclear weapon, there is little real evidence Iran is prepared to agree.

Indeed, on Monday the Biden administration unveiled a new round of sanctions targeting “illicit” support of the Iranian oil industry, which is already under crushing sanctions. And there are indications that the “breakout time” — the time needed for Iran to produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon — has shrunk to near-zero.

Should Iran test or even exhibit the capacity to test a nuclear weapon, its arch enemy Saudi Arabia has already indicated it will do all within its power to deploy its own. Indeed, it has fostered close relations with the nuclear programs of Pakistan and with China, whose appetite for foreign sources of oil knows few bounds.

It is hardly surprising that the UN Secretary-General has waxed so pessimistic. The speeches that followed his opening of the non-proliferation conference seemed scarcely calculated to return the genie to its nuclear bottle.

Blinken charged in his speech at the same conference that Russia is “engaged in reckless, dangerous nuclear saber-rattling” in Ukraine, while North Korea “is preparing to conduct its 7th nuclear test.” And as for Iran, it “remains on a path of nuclear escalation.”

“To escape the logic of fear,” Blinken concluded, should be the most immediate mission of all nations who’ve agreed to restrain the proliferation of nuclear arms.

Somehow, though, an even more worthwhile objective might just be for the world to find a way to turn back the clock from 2022 to 1962 or even 1982. These were terrifying years when, innocently, we practiced weekly duck-and-cover exercises under our little wooden desks in kindergarten, dug home fallout shelters in our backyards against an imminent nuclear attack.

But those very real and immediate threats led the nightly news, consumed the global dialogue, motivated every action by every world leader who understood that nuclear arms were, and should be, at the very top of priorities. They no longer are.

It is this fear that is at the heart of the Secretary-General’s pessimism — and should be at the heart of all of us

Russian Horn Pushes For Nuclear War: Revelation 16

‘Will not back down’ Putin’s chilling nuclear warning as Russia points to ‘doctrine’

PUTIN’S Russia has issued a chilling warning outlining the scenarios in which the Kremlin would use a nuclear weapon.

By MILLIE COOKE

12:58, Thu, Aug 4, 2022 | UPDATED: 13:03, Thu, Aug 4, 2022

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The Kremlin warned that it could use the lethal weapons “if western countries try to test our resolve”. Russian diplomat Alexander Trofimov listed two “hypothetical scenarios” which could trigger a nuclear response. Speaking at the nuclear non-proliferation conference on Tuesday, Mr Trofimov denied that Russia has threatened to use its nuclear arsenal against Ukraine.

He said this is “utterly unfounded, detached from reality and unacceptable”.

However, he said Russia could use nuclear weapons “in response to weapons of mass destruction or a conventional weapons attack that threatened the existence of the Russian state”.

He added: “None of these two hypothetical scenarios is relevant to the situation in Ukraine”.

However, he accused NATO countries of a “fierce hybrid confrontation” against Russia that now “dangerously balances on the edge of an open military clash”.

Russia has issued a chilling warning suggesting that they may resort to nuclear weapons (Image: Getty)

The Kremlin warned that it could use the weapons ‘if western countries try to test our resolve’ (Image: Getty)

He added: “Such a move would be able to trigger one of the two emergency scenarios described in our doctrine.

“We obviously stand for preventing this, but if western countries try to test our resolve, Russia will not back down.”

The day before, US President Joe Biden had said he was ready to pursue a new nuclear arms deal with Russia, calling on Moscow to “act in good faith”.

The conference is the second time this week Russia has accused the US of playing a direct role in the Ukraine war.

China Horn Continues to Nuke Up: Daniel 7

A Russian sailor prepares for Navy Day in Kronstadt Navy base, outside St.Petersburg, Russia, … [+] COPYRIGHT 2020 THE ASSOCIATED PRESS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

With No U.S. Pushback, China Follows Russia, Eying New Nihilistic Weaponry

Craig Hooper

Senior Contributor

I evaluate national security threats and propose solutions.Follow

Aug 3, 2022,08:54am EDT

As the Biden Administration prepares to roll out an abruptly revised and more Russia-focused national security strategy within the next few weeks, it is no secret that the process of formulating America’s national security strategy is broken. America’s strategic challenges are multi-faceted, the formative process is bureaucratically painful, and, by the time America’s grand new national defense strategy is finally ready to be implemented, it is either overtaken by events or a whole new team is settling into the White House.

It is a corrosive exercise. As one administration after another produces National Security Strategies full of little more than watered-down, overly-broad proclamations about protecting the “American people, the homeland and the American way of life,” talented national security operators are opting out of the entire process, leaving it to folks who enjoy nothing more than long DC meetings and slapping backs during mid-meeting coffee klatches. But the failure to produce a durable, long-term national security strategy is trickling down to other components within the national security space. Rather than build to a defined strategy, the U.S. Navy and others take refuge in a “warfighter” ethos, focusing on building a grab-bag of tactics with no defined goal or end-state.

At the top, America’s leisurely path towards an underwhelming and watered-down strategic “document” does America no good. This failure to quickly generate bold, responsive and longer-term strategies leads to strategic paralysis and has real national security consequences.

The world moves quickly. Rivals quickly identify and focus in on America’s policy gaps, knowing that America’s ponderous national security processes won’t respond.

Few push back on Vladimir Putin’s strategic nihilism AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

Threats of the First Nuclear War: Revelation 8

Threat of nuclear war

The rising tensions among nuclear-armed states could lead to a nuclear war

Any misunderstanding amid rising tensions among nuclear-armed states could lead to a nuclear war, and several prominent figures around the world, including UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, are warning that rhetoric and aggression needs to be brought in check to prevent such an eventuality.

He was speaking at the 10th review conference of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which has largely failed to meet its objectives since India, Pakistan, North Korea, and allegedly Israel managed to go nuclear since it was signed, while South Africa built and willfully dismantled a nuclear weapons programme since the NPT first came into being. Guterres singled out Russia for “its dangerous nuclear rhetoric and behaviour” as he noted that the world faced “a nuclear danger not seen since the height of the Cold War.” He also noted how “extraordinarily lucky” humanity has been that such a misunderstanding or miscalculation has not already happened, before going on to say that luck should not be a strategy and arguing that a world free of nuclear weapons would be safer than a world which uses them as “a shield from geopolitical tensions.”

There is evidence to back up the statement including the events around the Cuban Missile Crisis, several false alarms that were resolved only due to cool-headed political figures and military officers, or the dozens of ‘missing’ nuclear weapons around the world. The US, for example, has at least six nuclear weapons unaccounted for, and some Soviet-era sources have claimed that about 100 nuclear weapons of varying yields may have gone missing during the fall of the Soviet Union.

However, the last NPT moot in 2015 yielded no substantive agreements on how to restrict the proliferation of nuclear weapons or expanding recognition as nuclear weapons states to Pakistan and India, which have been responsible actors since making their nuclear capabilities known.

Without fully involving the known players, any efforts to eventually move towards denuclearisation will remain futile — the five permanent UN Security Council members, who are all military powerhouses and also the only ‘recognised’ nuclear powers, cannot expect the rest of the world to blindly accept their open hypocrisy as they continue to hold enough weapons to destroy the world many times over, while punishing smaller nations that believe nuclear weapons are the key to a secure existence.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 3rd, 2022.

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China Horn rejects US call for nuclear arms control talks amid Pelosi visit to Taiwan

China rejects US call for nuclear arms control talks amid Pelosi visit to Taiwan

| August 02, 2022 04:26 PM

China denounced Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s call for nuclear arms control talks as an attempt to “deflect blame” amid a brewing crisisover House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-CA) visitto Taiwan.

“The U.S. asks China to be part of the nuclear disarmament dialogue … with one purpose only, which is to deflect blame and distract attention,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said Tuesday. “The size of our nuclear arsenal is not on the same level with the U.S. At the current stage, to ask China to be part of the multilateral disarmament process is not fair, nor is it reasonable.”

China’s nuclear weapons advancements have stoked global anxiety that Beijing might imitate Russia’s strategy of attacking a weaker neighbor while using so-called “tactical” nuclear weapons to deter U.S. intervention. Hua shot down the call for nuclear talks amid a wider uproar over Pelosi’s travel plans, as the California Democrat refused to change her itinerary in the face of ominous official and propaganda statementsthat Chinese forces would retaliate in some fashion if she continued the visit.

“The U.S. has been following a strategy of using Taiwan to contain China,” she said, per the official transcript. “Any countermeasure to be taken by China would be a justified and necessary response to the U.S. oblivion to China’s repeated démarches and the U.S.’s unscrupulous behavior.”

US AND JAPAN MOVE TOWARD FOUNDING OF ‘ECONOMIC NATO’ TO COUNTER CHINA

Hua delivered that protest, as a Chinese state media outlet emphasized, during her first appearance at the daily press briefing since “February 24, when Russia’s military operation in Ukraine started.” Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio — who aired his “strong sense of urgency that Ukraine today, maybe East Asia tomorrow” at a security conference in June — traveled to New York to participate in a conference reviewing the efficacy of the treaty on the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons, known as the NPT.

“While the number has significantly decreased since the peak of the Cold War … maintaining this decreasing trend is extremely important in getting closer to a world without nuclear weapons,” the Japanese leader told the United Nations in a Monday speech. “In this vein, Japan supports the dialogue conducted between the United States and Russia for further reduction and encourages the U.S. and China to engage in a bilateral dialogue on nuclear arms control and disarmament.”

His statement brightened the spotlight on China’s nuclear arsenal at a conference otherwise haunted by Russia’s nuclear threats.

“Any country that asks others to reject the pursuit of nuclear weapons also has to be willing to reduce — and eventually, eliminate — their own stockpiles of nuclear weapons,” Blinken said in his appearance at the conference. “We stand ready to work with all partners, including China and others, on risk reduction and strategic stability efforts. As we look to the future, we also have to strengthen agreements preventing nuclear conflict — and create new ones.”

Chinese officials have refused to contemplate restrictions on their burgeoning nuclear arsenal for years. And Beijing has touted the modernizing Chinese forces in an attempt to curtail U.S. government contacts with Taiwan, which the Chinese Communist regime regards as its sovereign territory, despite never managing to exert authority on the island.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

“Making themselves an enemy of the 1.4 billion Chinese people will not end up well,” Hua wroteon Twitter. “Acting like a bully in front of the whole world will only make everyone see that the US is the biggest danger to world peace.”

China Is Expanding Her Nuclear Horn: Daniel 7

China Is Expanding Nuclear Test Facilities; New Satellite Images Reveal Dragon’s Dangerous Plans

August 2, 2022

The latest satellite images reveal that China is expanding its nuclear test sites in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, including erecting a facility that could be used to store explosives.

In its latest report, the Nikkei has reviewed the latest satellite images with several experts that seem to affirm China is enhancing its nuclear testing capability. The satellite images show new development and expansion of China’s nuclear test facilities in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region.

The new evidence was discovered by the satellite at China’s Lop Nur nuclear test site southeast of Western China’s Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. Many experts think the People’s Liberation Army is responsible for protecting the covert nuclear testing site.

According to the report, extensive coverings have been constructed on a mountainside in this arid region and the broken rocks piled nearby are thought to prove that a new “sixth tunnel” for testing has been dug out nearby.

Recent construction includes power transmission cables and a facility that could be used to store high explosives. The images also showed that several unpaved white roads branch off a command post.

An expert at AllSource Analysis, a US private geospatial company, said that China could undertake nuclear-related tests anytime, especially considering the electricity line and road network that now joins Lop Nor’s western military nuclear test facilities to new prospective test sites in the east.

China is expanding its nuclear arsenal to establish itself as the world’s dominant power. In 2021, a pentagon report outlined many developments, including Beijing’s “large-scale expansion of its nuclear forces,” which could seriously threaten the US. 

The Pentagon has previously issued similar warnings. The Pentagon’s 2020 report on China’s military revealed that Beijing’s arsenal of nuclear warheads would have at least doubled by the decade’s end.

However, the recent report contains a more urgent warning: according to the Pentagon, China “has accelerated its nuclear expansion” and is “exceeding the pace and size the DoD projected in 2020.” Military vehicles carrying the DF-17 hypersonic ballistic missile roll past Tiananmen Square during a parade in Beijing in October 2019.

The communist country, however, faces many difficulties in its quest to catch up to the US. The Chinese Communist Party, according to President Xi Jinping, “rules east, west, north, and south,” which implies that it has control over the PLA. 

The latest report highlighted that China’s military leadership is still corrupt and nepotistic. The Sino-Vietnamese War of 1979 was the PLA’s previous significant experience in actual combat.

The Xi administration may be thinking about forcibly annexing Taiwan. Even the possibility of Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the US House of Representatives, visiting Taiwan has drawn a grave threat from Beijing. Chinese officials might consider this potential visit an invasion and take drastic military action.

But given the severe flaws in the quality of Russian military hardware, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has served as a stark reminder of the dangers of military actions. Over 66% of China’s imported military hardware comes from Russia.Courtesy: Nikkei

Sixth Tunnel On Its Way?

Beijing stopped conducting explosive tests in the area a quarter century ago. The country has conducted five underground nuclear tests at Lop Nur, the last being in 1996. The latest report highlighted the evidence of a planned resumption, including excavating the sixth tunnel.

Tenders requested from the area contain some convincing evidence as well. An official Chinese procurement website issued a request for proposals in April for “10 radiation dose alarms,” “12 protective suits,” and “one wound site taints detector,” the report revealed. 

The Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region has no nuclear power plants, but the XPCC stated that it will “start strengthening the capacity to monitor radioactivity in 2022.” In the area, there has been a rise in the purchase of related equipment.

In October 2020, satellites found fresh evidence of Lop Nur’s terrain leveling work. The report noted, “Big trucks came and went in 2021, and the power infrastructure for the sixth tunnel was built in the first half of 2022.” The construction work of the explosive storage facility was completed in June 2022. 

Alongside these developments, excessive radiation levels were seen in the area. Nearby, a new underground facility was discovered that could be employed to launch nuclear missiles, the report added. File Image; China’s YJ-18 anti-ship cruise missile.

Why Is China Expanding Its Nuclear Facility?

China worries that the US, which has a more powerful triad and more nuclear weapons, could launch a preemptive attack on its nuclear arsenal and launch capabilities, leaving China without sufficient defenses. 

This has driven Beijing to seek out more weapons and delivery systems to have enough to withstand an attack and get past US missile defenses.

Also, maritime control will be the primary concern in a Taiwan Strait emergency. China may be able to keep US aircraft carriers at bay with the help of small nuclear weapons with limited strike power.

Although the US has not yet taken a direct part in the conflict in Ukraine, some analysts contend that the potential use of nuclear weapons has made Washington even more cautious about getting involved. China is undoubtedly aware of this line of thinking.

The expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal may be the most obvious sign of the country’s combat readiness. Still, it’s only one part of a more extensive buildup that worries military leaders and decision-makers worldwide.

Trouble Before the First Nuclear War: Revelation 8

New Nuclear Troubles in Southern Asia?

While China, India, and Pakistan have long had competitive and often antagonistic relationships, the significant transformation of each nation’s nuclear capabilities over the past decades now complicates—and in some ways mitigates—their geopolitical rivalries. How have the nuclear transformations in the region fostered stability amid heightened risk? And what do these ongoing changes mean for the ever-intricate web of global competition and alliances?

Join Carnegie for the launch of Ashley J. Tellis’ new report “Striking Asymmetries: Nuclear Transitions in Southern Asia” which studies the implications of China’s dramatic nuclear expansion, Pakistan’s striking diversification of its nuclear arsenal, and India’s slow nuclear modernization. Featuring Ashley J. Tellis, Rabia Akhtar, Rakesh Sood, and Tong Zhao, moderated by Evan A. Feigenbaum.

Hybrid Warfare: A New Face Of Conflict before the First Nuclear War

 

Hybrid Warfare: A New Face Of Conflict In South Asia – OpEd

Amber Afreen AbidJuly 29, 2022

Flags of India and Pakistan

Hybrid warfare or hybrid threat seems to be the emerging modality in the changing nature of warfare. In the nuclear era, more attention has been given to the sub-conventional conflicts, because of the lethality of the nuclear weapons; the deterrence being created by the nuclear-weapon states prevents other nuclear-weapon states to wage a total war. Furthermore, international legal bindings of prohibiting the use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states eliminate the probability of an all-out war. Thus, the thrust of war has been envisioned by revisionist actors in the form of a new kind of warfare, predominantly through cyber-attacks and subversion, fake news campaigns, sponsoring of proxy forces, or even through economic blackmail. Hybrid warfare is a challenge, which brings into play an array of tactics and strategies thereby inflicting harm to the adversary, whilst exploiting the revolution in technological affairs. It targets the vulnerabilities of any society, with the aim to divide and dissuade the population, undermines the key institutions, and even deteriorates the bond between the states and international organizations. In a nutshell, hybrid warfare is a full-spectrum of war, which encompasses both physical and psychological aspects of the adversary.

Pakistan has also been the victim of hybrid warfare. Since its inception, India has been trying to wage a war or indulge in a conflict with Pakistan, in one way or the other. India is sparing no effort to target Pakistan at the domestic level which encompasses all the political, social, economic, and religious factors. In this regard, it has been leaving no stone unturned in defaming and maligning Pakistan in the international arena through its fake propaganda. Pakistani society is an amalgam of ethnic groups, sectarian faction, and cultural blocs, that are being exploited by India and used as a fault line as a grey-zone in conflict. India is operating a radicalized militant group in Pakistan and is fueling the unrest in Baluchistan. In pursuit of this, Afghanistan’s land is being exercised by India in its endeavor to destabilize Pakistan by operating terrorist organizations for launching sub-conventional warfare inside Pakistan.

Considering the spillover of untrue and fallacious information, the complexity of warfare has tremendously being increased. India is involved in various operations against Pakistan in order to defame and discredit the country, in its pursuit to isolate it internationally as well. Its conspiracy of defaming and maligning Pakistan has also been put out in the EU DisinfoLab Report of 2020. According to that report, India is operating the largest ever fake media network, with 750+ fake media websites, and resurrecting the dead scholars, and propagating the false news in the international media. Moreover, it misused the politicians who genuinely want to defend human rights, and provided platform to far-right politicians when convergent objectives were pursued.

Moreover, India is also keenly involved in terrorists and separatist activities, and trying its level best to sabotage the economic project of Pakistan- the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which certainly is a headache to the adversary. India is using a variety of subversive tactics of hybrid warfare, in order to destabilize Pakistan both externally and internally. Pakistan has encountered many security challenges successfully but has been prone to the non-traditional security challenge-the hybrid warfare, waged by India. Therefore, in the contemporary state of affairs, Pakistan must identify and efficiently counter the gradually escalating non-traditional threats such as the hybrid threats.

There is a need to pen down a grand strategy for countering all the traditional and non-traditional threats posed by the adversary. Pakistan needs to devise a comprehensive strategy to counter the aggression of hybrid warfare. It is appropriate for Pakistan to develop Hybrid Warfare and Stratagem Centre, with its aim to address policymakers of the threats posed by the hybrid warfare, develop metrics to get a grip on events, and to make them susceptible of the threats and cognizance for curbing them in the future. Media, on the other hand, is seen as one of the lethal and a sophisticated weapon to target the enemy’s will and exploit its weaknesses. It is used to target the opponent population by changing their perception regarding their government. Therefore, media has to play a pivotal role in curbing the fake news propaganda and misinformation, as it is the most significant tool used in propagating bogus information; besides, media should strictly promote Pakistan’s narrative in fighting against this ubiquitous threat. 

Furthermore, the law enforcement agencies should work in coordination with each other and should be properly trained and equipped to fight against this abstract threat, additionally, they should be able enough to smartly utilize Artificial Intelligence as well. The government must provide adequate awareness and vigilance to the local population of the country, in order to make them aware of the actions and ill-will of the adversary in its attempt to dissect the society, as the objective is to target the common people. Hence, the cautious and observant society is the first and foremost step in the line of defense against this new challenge, and the entire country needs to play the crucial role in curbing the spiteful act of the foe.

Pakistan: The Nuclear Horn without a Stable Economy

Pakistan: The Nuclear Power without a Stable Economy

Islamabad [Pakistan], July 24 (ANI): Pakistan may have nuclear capabilities however the country is fighting with its fast exhausting foreign currency reserves, a declining rupee, and widening fiscal and current account deficits, along with a rupee that has lost almost 20 per cent of its value in just 7 months since January 2022.

State Bank of Pakistan’s reserves has fallen to as low as USD 9.32 billion, hardly enough to pay for 45 days of imports. The red line for SBP foreign currency reserves is USD 7.5 Billion to avoid “default”.

Pakistan’s political instability threatens to derail efforts to regain the confidence of key lenders. The country’s currency endured its worst week in more than two decades, reflecting investors’ worries that the country risks following Sri Lanka to become the next emerging economy to default on foreign repayments.

The emerging-market currencies are feeling the heat as the hawkish Federal Reserve lures capital toward the United States. Nope The panic in Pakistan’s stock and money market also comes from escalating risks after former prime minister Imran Khan’s by-polls win added to concern over the country’s bailout deal with the IMF, which it needs to avoid a default.

As per reports and trends the dollar is going out of control in Pakistan and the traders are in panic in the market that the rupee may go down further.

In a desperate move to avert default, the federal cabinet approves an ordinance to sell state resources. The government has approved an ordinance to bypass all procedures involved in the sale of state assets and abolished the regulatory checks through the ‘Inter-Governmental Commercial Transactions Ordinance 2022’.

The move is being seen as a desperate attempt to save the country from default through the emergency sale of the state’s assets to foreign countries. However, President Arif Alvi has not signed the ordinance yet.

The federal cabinet approved the ordinance on Thursday to sell stakes in oil and gas companies and government-owned power plants to the UAE to raise USD 2 billion to USD 2.5 billion to avoid the looming default. The UAE had in May refused to give cash deposits due to Pakistan’s failure to return previous loans and instead asked to open its companies for investment.

Top Economics and Commerce experts say that the IMF agreement is a critical step toward unlocking external financing that Pakistan needs to avoid a default.

The Red Line For SBP Foreign Currency Reserves is USD 7.5 Billion to avoid ‘default’. If UAE and Saudia or even Chinese withdraw its USD 2.3 billion; Pakistan’s Economy will be collapsed.

On July 15, the foreign currency reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan were recorded at USD 9.32 billion, down USD 389 million compared with USD 9.71 billion on July 7, 2022.

State Bank of Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves fell to single digits despite a USD 2.3 billion inflow from China late last month. Central bank’s foreign exchange reserves are expected to improve after the receipt of USD 1.17 billion from the global lender.

In the week ended August 27, 2021, the foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank soared to an all-time high of USD 20.15 billion after Pakistan received a general allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) worth USD 2,751.8 million from the IMF. (ANI)On Friday morning, the rupee was trading at 232 per dollar, having closed Friday at 228.37 in interbank; after Fitch Ratings revised its outlook for Pakistan’s sovereign debt from stable to negative – though it affirmed the Long-Term Foreign-Currency (LTFC) and Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at “B-“.

Country’s Finance Minister Miftah Ismail said the panic was due to political turmoil and not over economic fundamentals. Pakistani economist Atif Mian analyses how the Pakistani rupee has lost 20 per cent of its value and that the key issue will be “rationing”, in the short run.

“The dollar is going out of control and the traders are in panic in the market, I fear the rupee will go down further,” said Secretary-General of the Exchange Companies of Pakistan Zafar Paracha expressing concerns.

Pakistan’s central bank has hiked its key interest rate to 15% to curb inflation, which hit 21.3% in June.

Ismail, told a news conference in Islamabad, referring to the shortfall in foreign reserves, “we think that we will get USD 1.2 billion in deferred oil payment from a friendly country; we think that a foreign country will invest between USD 1.5 to USD 2 billion in stocks on a G2G (government-to-government) basis, and another friendly country will perhaps give us gas on deferred payment and another friendly country will make some deposits.”Finance Minister said the country will also get around USD 6 billion from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank in FY 2022-2023.

He said that the country needs USD 41 billion in foreign exchange over the next 12 months. “We have to repay USD 21 billion loans, need USD 12 billion current-account deficit financing and another USD 8-09 billion to maintain foreign exchange reservesavoid a default.” (ANI)