The World’s Nuclear Arsenals Expand (Revelation 16)

 
India expanding nuclear arsenal: U.S.

Updated: October 6, 2015 00:26 IST | Narayan Lakshman

A senior U.S. administration official this week clubbed India along with Pakistan, North Korea and Iran in a reference to nations that were expanding their nuclear weapons capabilities amidst global proliferation concerns.

Speaking at a conference in Oslo, Norway, Frank Rose, Assistant Secretary of State at the Bureau of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance, said a few days ago, “… India and Pakistan are adding to their arsenals; North Korea’s nuclear and missile programmes remain a concern to all; and Iran, despite the landmark nuclear deal, continues its ballistic missile programs.”

Mr. Rose said that given these nations’ nuclear ambitions, along with the fact that Russia and China were modernising their nuclear forces, it would take more than simply banning nuclear weapons to prevent their proliferation and “effectively deter multiple adversaries with varying capabilities.”
As it stands the agreement for declared nuclear powers to supply India with uranium fuel and reactor capabilities has ground to a halt pending talks between U.S. nuclear corporations and the Indian government, negotiations that have foundered on at least two clauses of India’s nuclear liability law.

Russian nuclear horn supplies Iran (Dan 7)

Russian-Iranian Arms Sale: Repercussions of the Nuclear Talks

1 day ago | Updated 1 day ago

Majid Rafizadeh President of the International American Council

For the Islamic Republic of Iran, one of the most significant and beneficial byproducts of the ongoing nuclear talks with the P5+1 nations — the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Russia, and China — is not solely linked to the prospects of Iran’s nuclear program. In fact, the international legitimacy that Iranian leaders are gaining from the negotiations bears much-more-positive consequences for Tehran’s strategic geopolitical and military designs in the Middle East.
At the beginning of this year, Sergei Shoigu became the first Russian Minister of Defense to visit Tehran in 15 years. Then, in April, Russian President Vladimir Putin paved the way for delivering a missile system to Iran by lifting a ban on the sale of sophisticated Russian air-defense missiles to Tehran. The ban had been imposed in 2010 as a result of UN Security Council resolutions, as well as pressure and lobbying from the United States and Israel. Nevertheless, Iran’s military power and the Russian-Iranian partnership have shifted since the P5+1 and Iran reached a framework for a final nuclear deal.

Rise in the Russian-Iranian Partnership

For Iranian leaders the progress in the nuclear talks can significantly increase their geopolitical and economic influence in the region through global trade that could bolster Tehran’s military power. For example, the S-300 surface-to-air missile system can provide the Islamic Republic with a powerful deterrence against any air strikes (including from ballistic missiles or cruise missiles) against their nuclear sites. In addition, the arms sale could embolden Iran to scuttle the foreign-policy objectives of its rivals — including regional state actors and the United States — in the region.

For Russian leaders it is crucial to be ahead of the game when a final nuclear deal is reached between the P5+1 nations and Iran. Taking action will ensure that Moscow can reap a significant amount of trade profits (whether militarily or non-militarily) from Iran. For instance, Russia has long been negotiating to intensify its oil-for-goods barter deal with Tehran. Moscow can place its military deals with Tehran based on the oil-for-goods exchange program. This will provide Russian leaders with a leg up in Iran’s energy and financial markets before the final nuclear deal is signed.

Since a framework for a final nuclear has been reached, several powers will feel the urge to immediately intensify trade (including arms, goods, and oil) with Iran. Before European countries can tap into Iran’s market, Russia is attempting to secure its profits from its arms client (Iran), maintain its strategic alliance with Iran, reassert its military cooperation with Tehran, and enjoy a significant share in Iran’s market. Russia’s Ministry of Defense has stated that Moscow is ready to strike the arms deal, which is worth approximately $800 million.

In other words, the prospect of a final nuclear deal has prompted a race among several countries to benefit from the easing of UN Security Council sanctions against Iran. A competition to secure trade with Iran has already been initiated. And Russia, a long-term strategic ally of the Islamic Republic, would not desire to fall behind. As Andrei A. Klimov, the deputy chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee in the Federation Council (Russia’s Senate), told The New York Times, “We need to think about the future of our trade partnership [with Iran]. We don’t want to wait for anybody else. It is a kind of competition, if you like.”

Iran would welcome any military deal that could further advance its regional hegemonic ambitions. As Iran’s deputy defense minister, Reza Talaienik, told the semiofficial Tasnim News Agency in response to Russia’s decision to lift the ban on missile sales, “If Russia fulfills its commitment to deliver the S-300 missile system to Iran, it will be a step towards boosting the relations and collaborations between the two countries. It will be a step forward.”

In addition, as Tehran is considered a strategic ally of Moscow, bolstering Iran’s military power will further advance Russia’s strategic geopolitical objectives in the region. The heightened tensions between the Obama administration and President Putin pushed Moscow much closer to the Islamic Republic as well.

No Opposition From the West; Moderation in Iran’s Regional Policies?

Although some experts, policy analysts, and politicians might argue that Russia’s move would complicate the nuclear talks, it is unlikely that the Obama administration or Western allies would scuttle the final nuclear deal because of an Iran-Russia arms deal.

The recent developments clearly indicate that Iranian leaders will not moderate their objective of regional preeminence or scale down their military influence over other countries in the region. It appears that the easing of sanctions will be utilized by Iranian leaders to further invest in their country’s military and ratchet up Iran’s strategic geopolitical and economic influence in the Middle East.

Russia and the Iran have leveraged the international legitimacy that the Islamic Republic has gained from the nuclear talks to strengthen their strategic defense ties. This international legitimacy will not only bolster Iran’s military power, which would further destabilize the region and pose security concerns for other regional state actors, but will set off a global race to increase trade with Iran, including trade in arms.

Majid Rafizadeh, an American scholar and political scientist, is the president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He is originally from Iran and Syria.

Russian Nuclear Horn Extends Into Europe

Russia: We Have The Right To Put Nuclear Weapons In Crimea

New S-300PMU surface-to-air missile delivered to Crimea

• Jeremy Bender

• Dec. 16, 2014, 11:20 AM

Russia announced on Monday that it believes it has the full right to deploy nuclear weapons in the recently annexed Crimean peninsula. 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told the Interfax news agency that since Crimea was now a part of Russia, Moscow had full rights to deploy nuclear weapons into the region.

Lavrov argues that Crimea can be treated just like any other part of Russia and can therefore host nuclear infrastructure. “Now Crimea has become part of a state which possesses such weapons in accordance with the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty,” says Lavrov. “In accordance with international law, Russia has every reason to dispose of its nuclear arsenal … to suit its interests and international legal obligations.”

The Russian foreign minister is using “international law” selectively here. After all, only a small handful of countries, including Syria, Venezuela, and Afghanistan, recognize Russia’s annexation of the peninsula. The rest consider Russia’s seizure of the region to be an illegal act of aggression.

Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine in March following a widely disputed referendum. The vote was carried out after thousands of Russian troops had already entered the peninsula. The validity of the referendum has been called into question following a 97% approval rate for union with Russia.

In the face of crippling Western sanctions and a crashing ruble, Lavrov likely mentioned Russia’s ability to place nuclear weapons in the contested peninsula as a means of rallying the Russian people around Moscow’s nationalist policies.

“Lavrov has brought up this nuclear weapons issue to demonstrate that the Kremlin considers Crimea such an inalienable part of Russia that it may choose to do with it whatever it wants, including the deployment of nukes,” Alexander Golts, a deputy editor of Yezhednevny Zhurnal and a Russian political expert, told the Los Angeles Times.

Lavrov’s insistence that Russia has the right to move nuclear weapons into Crimea marks only the latest instance in which Russian officials or pro-government public figures have spoken openly at the country’s arsenal. In March, a prominent Russian broadcaster warned that Moscow could turn the US into “radioactive dust.” This was followed by a warning from the Russian Pravda that Moscow had a “nuclear surprise” for the West in November.

Technically, neither the US nor Russia can move strategic nuclear forces without verifying the deployment with the other country due to the 2010 New START treaty, which set a timeline for mutual cuts to the countries’ nuclear stockpiles. Any Russian movement of strategic nuclear weapons into Crimea (long-range, high-yield weapons, as opposed to tactical or battlefield nuclear warheads) without prior notification to the US would result in Russia violating the treaty.

 

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-we-can-put-nuclear-weapons-in-crimea-2014-12#ixzz3M7pBv4jL

Pakistan (Third Horn) Expands Nuclear Weapons (Daniel 8)

Pakistan, India, China expanding nuclear arsenals
17 June, 2014

Increasing Pakistan's Nuclear Missiles

STOCKHOLM: China, India and Pakistan are the only nuclear weapon states that are expanding their nuclear arsenals, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said Monday.

According to the report, China held 250 warheads, India between 90 and 110, Pakistan between 100 and 120 and Israel 80, at the beginning of 2014, the think tank said in its yearly report on world nuclear forces.

North Korea appeared on the list with six to eight warheards, while Israel appears to be waiting to see how the situation in Iran develops, SIPRI said. The United States and Russia still held some 7,300 and 8,000 warheads respectively at the beginning of this year, it said.

The think tank said number of nuclear weapons in the world continue to decline, but at a slower pace than in previous years. "Over the past five years there has been a steady decline in the overall number of nuclear warheads in the world. The decrease is due mainly to Russia and the US, which together still account for more than 93 percent of all nuclear weapons."

The number of nuclear warheads in the world has dropped by 930 from 2013 to 16,300 this year, whereas in 2011 the figure fell by 2,070 to 20,530 compared with a year earlier.

The think tank warned that the decline does not imply a real commitment by the nuclear powers to give up their arsenals.

"Once again this year, the nuclear weapon-possessing states took little action to indicate a genuine willingness to work toward complete dismantlement of their nuclear arsenals," SIPRI researchers Shannon Kile and Phillip Patton Schell said in a statement.

"The long-term modernisation programmes under way in these states suggest their views that nuclear weapons will remain deeply embedded elements of their strategic calculus."

While the two main nuclear powers keep reducing their arsenals, other nuclear states including Britain and France remained stable in this year's report with 225 and 300 warheads, respectively.
"There is an emerging consensus in the expert community that North Korea has produced a small number of nuclear weapons, as distinct from rudimentary nuclear explosive devices," the think tank said.

However, SIPRI researcher Schell told AFP that these figures were based on the amount of plutonium the country could have produced and not on its ability to effectively use it as a weapon. "There is possibly enough material for six to eight weapons," he said.

"But there's been no clear indication yet of their ability to produce a nuclear warhead and to produce an associated missile system that could carry this warhead."

End.