The prophecy is more than seeing into the future. For the prophecy sees without the element of time. For the prophecy sees things as they were, as they are, and as they always shall be.
Masked Islamic State group fighters appear in an ISIS video in Libya Sept. 24, 2015. Photo: Islamic State Group
BEIRUT — Since the rise of the Islamic State group, Western powers
have focused their fight against it on Iraq and Syria, but that’s
changing as the extremist organization spreads farther west. American forces carried out their first airstrikes of this year on one of the militant group’s bases in Sabratha, Libya, Friday.
A Tunisian leader of the group also known as ISIS or ISIL and two
Serbian Embassy workers who had been kidnapped by the extremist
organization were among the 49 fatalities in the northwestern coastal
city.
The U.S. decision to strike ISIS targets in Libya, which the Pentagon
described as a matter of national security, underscores the extent of
the militant group’s expansion in terms of both members and territory
during the past six months. ISIS
in Libya — basically southern Europe’s backyard — is proving to be a
bigger threat than the group’s branches in Iraq and Syria. The North
African country has become a hub for European foreign fighters who are
either unable or unwilling to travel to Iraq or Syria and who, on
returning to their European homes, plan further atrocities. “ISIS’ safe haven in Libya will
allow it to survive even if it is defeated in Iraq and Syria,”
according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War. “ISIS will
use its Libyan base to exacerbate regional disorder and attack Europe.” Damage
at the scene of an airstrike by U.S. warplanes targeting the Islamic
State group is depicted in this handout photograph taken in Sabratha,
Libya, Feb. 19, 2016.Photo: Reuters/Sabratha Municipality Media Office/Handout
Libya has been in the throes of a chaotic civil war since the fall of
dictator Moammar Gadhafi five years ago. With two rival governments
struggling to control the country’s political sphere and its vast oil
fields, militant groups and terrorist organizations such as ISIS
have capitalized on the nation’s environment of lawlessness.
“Conflict zones and failed states necessarily attract violent
extremists — and Libya is the perfect candidate for a new safe haven for
jihadist fighters. The phenomenon of foreign fighters has enhanced this
threat, as young extremists are provided with an ideal destination for
waging violent jihad,” according to a report by the Soufan Group,
an intelligence and risk consultancy.
“Given geography, expansive territory, extensive oil reserves and its
history with violent jihadist networks, a failed state in Libya could
be disastrous for North Africa and Europe, as well as the broader
international community,” the consultancy reported.
The conflict in Libya has made it difficult to obtain up-to-date data
on Libyan foreign fighters, but last year about 600 Libyans traveled to
fight in Iraq and Syria with some 6,500 ISIS fighters in Libya now,
according to several U.S. intelligence officials who spoke to CNN. Libyan nationals are in the minority of fighters, meaning that the majority are either new recruits from foreign countries or veterans who have fought in Iraq and Syria.
Libya used to be a popular stopover for European and North African
fighters hoping to make it to Iraq and Syria: After entering the
country, fighters would rent a house for several days until they made
their way to Turkey and crossed illegally into Syria, according to an
ISIS propaganda book obtained by International Business Times that
instructs fighters how to reach the so-called caliphate. In some cases,
training also took place in Libya ahead of journeying to ISIS-controlled
territory.
Since mid-2015, however, Libya has become a major destination for ISIS fighters in its own right. IBT recently obtained a document from an ISIS supporter in Libya
listing a number of specialists the group was looking to recruit to the
country, including engineers, explosive experts, oil and gas workers,
and physicists. A Institute for the Study of War map shows the ISIS presence and operations in Libya in early 2016.Photo: Institute for the Study of War
“It’s one of the first cases of Europeans going to Libya instead of
directly going to Syria, and I think we might see more of that in the
future, particularly as it becomes harder to get to Syria,” Harleen
Gambhir, counterterrorism analyst at the Institute for the Study of War,
told IBT. “ISIS has terrain it controls [in Libya]. The caliphate
exists there, too.”
But ISIS fighters in Libya “don’t want to carry out attacks inside
Libya, and they really haven’t done that,” Jason Pack, an analyst at
Libya-Analysis.com, told the Voice of America.
“What they do want to do is to keep the Libyan government weak, and
that’s the reason they have targeted assassinations against key Libyan
government officials.”
The advantages of the country’s proximity to Europe are not lost on
the militant group. In an interview published in Dabiq, the ISIS online
propaganda magazine, Libyan ISIS leader Abul-Mughirah al-Qahtani said,
“The control of the Islamic State over this region will lead to economic
breakdowns, especially for Italy and the rest of the European states.”
But the militant group still has a long way to go before it can call
Libya its own, let alone realize its deadly ambitions in Europe. The
legion of foreign fighters ISIS has imported into Libya has not always
gone down well with local extremists. In mid-2014 a prominent jihadi in
the coastal city of Derna pledged allegiance to ISIS leader Abu Bakr
al-Baghdadi, but since then other militants have rejected the group’s
presence. An ISIS militant gives a speech before carrying out an execution in the Libyan city of Sabratha Feb. 13, 2016.Photo: Islamic State Group Wilayat Sabratha
However, ISIS has succeeded in expanding the territory it holds in
other areas of Libya, including Tripoli and Sirte, home to the largest
air base in Libya and several of the country’s major oil facilities.
It is this expansion that has the U.S. and its European allies
concerned. In November, a U.S. attack targeted and killed an ISIS leader
in Libya for the first time. In a statement confirming the militant’s
death, the Pentagon’s press secretary said the strike “demonstrates how
far we will go after [ISIS] leaders wherever they operate.”