NATO to send more forces east to face Russia threat
By John Vandiver
Stars and Stripes
Published: February 9, 2016
NATO faces a difficult balance as it seeks to deter Russian aggression against vulnerable eastern allies without inciting a military escalation, which some analysts warn could result.
“As long as we are firm, predictable and strong, we
can also engage with Russia in political dialogue,” NATO
Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Tuesday. “We don’t seek
confrontation with Russia. We do not seek a new Cold War.”
Stoltenberg, speaking ahead of a two-day meeting of
alliance defense ministers that starts Wednesday, said effective
deterrence requires a forward presence that can also be quickly
reinforced.
“I expect ministers to agree to enhance our forward
presence in the eastern part of our alliance,” Stoltenberg, who stopped
short of detailing the shape of that force.
The new steps
are likely a prelude to more NATO action expected to come later this
year when allies convene in Warsaw for a major summit on NATO’s
adaptation as it faces the dual threat of Russia in the east and
widespread instability to the south in northern Africa and the Middle
East.
However, with NATO stepping up its presence in the
east and Russia bolstering its own forces, some military analysts warn
that, left unchecked, the moves could increase the risk of confrontation.
“Both Russia and NATO see their deployments and
increased focus on exercises as necessary development of their previous
force postures,” says a new report by the European Leadership Network, a
London-based think tank. “Each side is convinced that its actions are
justified by the negative changes of its own security environment caused
by the other side.”
While the report blames Russia as the cause for
Europe’s deteriorating security environment — pointing to Russia’s
actions in Ukraine and an aggressive, nuclear saber-rattling posture —
allies should avoid an excessive buildup in the east, the report
cautions.
“If unchecked, this action-reaction dynamic could
lead to further deterioration of the security situation. There would
also be a higher risk of unintended escalation following an incident
involving the armed forces of NATO countries and Russia,” the report
says.
There have been
some close calls over the past year or more, with Russian fighter
planes violating alliance airspace and reports of possible Russian
submarines trolling the coastlines of allied territory. Late last
year, NATO member Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet that Ankara
said had strayed in to Turkish air space from Syria, which Russia
denied.
For the U.S.-led NATO alliance, Russia’s 2014 seizure
of Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula and continuing intervention in support of
pro-Russian rebels in Ukraine’s east has sparked a series of reforms
intended to buttress allies in the east and send a message of resolve to
Moscow. NATO already has doubled its crisis response force to 40,000 troops and set up small headquarters across the Baltics to facilitate the flow of forces.
The U.S. has carried much of the load in the region,
maintaining a continuous presence of infantrymen on the ground to carry
out exercises with allies. In 2015, the U.S. Army also sent 250 tanks
and other heavy equipment to Europe. And the Pentagon’s 2017 spending
plan includes $3.4 billion for the European Reassurance Initiative. The
package, quadruple the amount from the previous year, calls for an
additional brigade’s worth of combat ready tanks, artillery and soldiers
to be deployed into Europe as well as increased air and navy presence.
“The U.S. is showing leadership and I think it is a
very important decision,” Stoltenberg said. “I think this is also
important because it is a signal to European NATO allies that they also
need to step up, and they actually are doing that.”
Russia’s envoy to NATO, Alexander Grushko, warned
Monday that a buildup of NATO forces along Russia’s periphery “can’t be
left without a military-technical answer,” The Associated Press reported
Monday. He did not specify what steps Moscow would take.
Russia has beefed up its military presence near the Baltics and in its enclave of Kaliningrad, which
is nestled between Poland and Lithuania on the Baltic Sea. Along with
massive “snap” exercises that mobilize thousands of forces on short
notice, Moscow also has steadily upped its investment in defense.
Indeed, Russia’s more muscular posture is backed up
by a military that has undergone a rapid transformation, which began
well before Moscow’s intervention in Ukraine or NATO’s buildup in the
east. Between 2004 and 2013, Russia’s defense budget increased by 108
percent, according to data compiled by the Stockholm International Peace
Research Institute.
During that same time frame, nearly all NATO allies
in Europe made drastic cuts to their own defense budgets. Stoltenberg
said allies are beginning to reverse that trend, with most NATO members
at least holding steady on defense spending in 2015 rather than making
cuts.
While Russia has the advantage of geography, with more forces and firepower in close proximity to the Baltics than NATO does, allies collectively spend about $1 trillion on defense. That dwarfs Russian expenditures. Still, reinforcements in the east are needed, Stoltenberg said.
“This will bolster our collective defense,” he said.
“And at the same time send a powerful signal to deter any aggression or
intimidation.”
