Korean Nuclear Horn Prepares For Another Test

Satellite imagery shows North Korea digging test tunnel at nuclear proving ground

By Mike Firn, Tokyo
6:16AM GMT 31 Dec 2015

Work at Punggye-ri continues after experts said they believed Pyongyang may be less than five years from having thermonuclear weapon

North Korea is digging a new test tunnel at its nuclear proving site in Punggye-ri, according to the latest satellite imagery.

High-resolution photographs show fresh signs of excavation and a canopy over the tunnel`s entrance, US-based 38 North reports on its website.

Work at Punggye-ri continues after experts said they believed Pyongyang may be less than five years from having thermonuclear weapon
Satellite imagrey has in the past been used to spot signs of impending tests at the facility and experts believe the hermit state may be five years from having a thermonuclear weapon, with seven times the power of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945.

The images also show new activity at a test tunnel started in May 2013. It is not clear whether the work is for maintenance or for some other purpose, says the group, run by the US-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and headed by a former US State Department official.

The new tunnel, providing access to Mount Musan, is in a different area from the three existing sites. Excavation work has caused erosion, leaving the surface of the mountain cracked and weak, 38 North says.

North Korea has carried out three nuclear tests since 2006.The last, in February 2013, was seen as a show of strength by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who came to power just over two years earlier.

The test provoked global condemnation and sanctions.

There are concerns that tensions on the Korean Peninsula will rise again following the death of one of Mr Kim’s closest advisors.

Kim Yang-gon was killed in a car crash on Tuesday, according to the state news agency.

He helped broker a deal with South Korea in August to try to reduce military tensions. Follow-up vice-ministerial talks this month failed to reach agreement on how to improve relations.

Bruce Klingner, senior research fellow at The Heritage Foundation, said: “North Korea has repeatedly demonstrated it rejects implementing the political and economic reforms necessary to justify a principled South Korean engagement strategy. Nor will the regime moderate its aggressive foreign policy to refrain from threats of nuclear incineration and highly insulting diatribes against President Park Geun-hye.”

The Korean Horn Prepares For Next Nuke (Daniel 7)

---

North Korea building new tunnel at nuclear test site, satellites show
 

Further evidence of a new portal at North Korea’s nuclear test site. (Courtesy of 38 North/Airbus Defense & Space/Spot Image)
 
By Anna Fifield December 2 at 8:26 PM

TOKYO – North Korea appears to be building a new tunnel at its nuclear test site, new satellite pictures show, raising fears that the Pyongyang regime might be preparing to conduct a fourth atomic test.

Although there are no signs that a test is imminent, the construction does lead to one unpalatable conclusion, said Jeffrey Lewis, a respected nonproliferation expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.

“Well, they’re not giving up their nuclear weapons,” said Lewis, who analyzed commercial satellite imagery in a new report for 38 North, a website dedicated to North Korea run by the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies.

The new tunnel makes it “more likely that they will conduct a test in the coming year,” Lewis said, although this also depended on factors such as stocks of fissile material and the political situation.
Since 2006, North Korea has conducted three nuclear detonations at its Punggye-ri test site, in a mountainous area in the north of the country. The most recent was in February 2013, just over a year into Kim Jong Un’s reign and a month before Xi Jinping became China’s president, putting a bitter chill on relations with North Korea’s neighbor and reluctant patron.

Kim has repeatedly asserted North Korea’s status as a nuclear-armed country and has resolutely refused to return to multilateral talks aimed at persuading it to abandon its nuclear weapons program. But, to the surprise of many analysts, there has been no fourth test.

Recent satellite photos show that North Korea is excavating a new tunnel at the test site.

Significant construction, including of new covered buildings, began in April, Lewis wrote. By October and November, the satellites were showing an additional structure and what appear to be significant tailings, indicating excavation of a new tunnel is underway.

South Korean officials have also reached the same conclusion. “North Korea appears to be in the process of digging another tunnel,” an unnamed official told the Yonhap News Agency in late October, citing increased movement of people and cars in the area.

But Joel Wit, a former American diplomat who is now a visiting scholar at the U.S.-Korea Institute, warned against concluding a test was coming anytime soon, noting the construction had been going on for months.

“There’s no evidence that they have decided to conduct a test,” Wit said, “but it adds to their ability to do so.”

There are already three tunnels at the Punggye-ri site: the east portal, where North Korea conducted its first nuclear test in 2006 and which does not appear to be maintained; the north portal that was used for the 2009 and 2013 tests; and the south portal, which has been under construction for six years and has not been used.

If the new tunnel, which Lewis called the west portal, connects to the same main tunnel, Pyongyang would be able to conduct additional tests in the future, he said.

Analysts must couch their assessments with “coulds” and “mays” because so little is known about North Korea’s nuclear program. Almost all information comes from satellites in orbit overhead, earthquake detectors that register the seismic activity caused by the detonations and spreadsheets.
The Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security estimates the North Korean regime could have enriched enough plutonium and uranium for 22 nuclear weapons.

In this case, Lewis said that a constraint on testing could be the mountain itself: whether it’s big enough to contain repeated explosions or whether it is suffering from “tired mountain syndrome” as the rock weakens.

North Korea Preparing For Next Nuke (Dan 7)

North Korea digging tunnel at nuclear test site, possibly for future test: report
Reuters
SEOUL (Reuters) – North Korea is digging a new tunnel at its nuclear test site with an eye to conducting more tests of atomic devices in the future, a South Korean news report said on Friday, two days before the leaders of the South, Japan and China meet in Seoul.
U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter also makes a separate visit on Sunday to discuss response to the North’s missile and nuclear threat with South Korean defense officials.
The site is on North Korea’s east coast where three previous nuclear tests were conducted, and there’s an active movement of workers and vehicles working on a new tunnel, Yonhap news agency quoted an unnamed government source as saying.
“The fact that they are constructing a new tunnel indicates the intention is to conduct a nuclear test at some point,” the source was quoted as saying. There was no evidence to conclude the preparation was for an imminent test, the source added.
South Korea’s Unification Ministry spokesman Jeong Joon-hee declined to confirm the report but said the country and the United States are closely watching for any nuclear activity by the North.
The report comes as the leaders of South Korea, Japan and China are scheduled to meet in Seoul on Sunday where reigning in the North’s pursuit of weapons of mass destruction is likely to be discussed.
North Korea has been steadily working on its nuclear program, but a fourth nuclear test was not see as imminent, particularly after it agreed with South Korea in August to work toward easing tensions on the peninsula and improve ties.
The North has conducted three nuclear tests, the last in 2013, drawing international condemnation including from China, its main diplomatic ally, and is under U.N. sanctions that ban trade that can fund its arms programs.