Coming soon, more trouble in our neighbourhood
India cannot let its guard down with regard to Pakistan, as neither history nor present developments in that country portend well for the future
Many neighbours have petty jealousies and quarrel over trivial issues resulting in ugly fights. Sometimes their extreme hatred for each other leads them even to long- drawn court cases. Such people may shift their homes if they wish to, however nations have no choice in selecting their neighbours. GK Chesterton (1874-1936) said, “We make our friends, we make our enemies; but God makes our next-door neighbours.” Though neighbours cannot be selected yet they must make peace with each other to live happily despite many irritants they may have. It is It is India’s misfortune to have a neighbour like Pakistan which refuses to see reason in anything and is bent upon waging a proxy war with it inviting ‘retribution’.
India and Pakistan have had a violent relationship since the Partition of 1947. Pakistan has remained unhappy with the territorial arrangements and continues to view the division of Kashmir as ‘illegitimate’. This has resulted in both the countries fighting four wars, in 1947-48, 1965, 1971 and 1999 Kargil war. The mistrust and bitterness between the two neighbours has in no way reduced since then. In fact, it has increased manifold since Pakistan resorted to unprovoked firing on Indian troops resulting in recent operations across LoC by India which some people call ‘surgical strike’. Possession of nuclear technology by both the countries since 1998 and rapidly growing economy of India in recent times makes South Asia a major player in international affairs. After the US used nuclear weapons on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, such weapons became the first category of weapons that appeared non-usable and the concept of ‘nuclear deterrence’ was introduced, which made war obsolete. Nuclear weapons are today seen more of a ‘means to deter’ than means ‘to achieve victory’. Countries with nuclear weapons realized that victory in war was too dangerous to fight for.
The fear of irreparable damage prevented war and the escalation of conflict in the Cold War period. Presently, all available analysis of nuclear proliferation anywhere is coloured with the experience of Cold War history. Defence experts have been debating the two different points of views related with the impact of nuclear weapons on South Asia’s past, present and future. Such approach is likely to help develop a more pragmatic and balanced understanding of the issue. However, the entire debate about nuclear stability in South Asia must be seen in the background of how the term ‘deterrence’ is understood and interpreted. Assured destruction is the essence of the whole deterrence concept, as massive retaliation raises the cost of war which outweighs the gains from aggression.
The belief that nuclear weapons have helped stabilise the security environment between India and Pakistan is no more valid and the latest tensions between the two countries have created an atmosphere of mistrust about the use of nuclear weapons. India being a responsible state is concerned about the tactical use of such weapons by a rogue state like Pakistan. Former National Security Advisor, Shivshankar Menon has warned that the likelihood of Pakistan using the tactical nuclear weapons against India has increased and along with it the possibility of an all out nuclear war. When the focus of Pakistan should be fighting terrorism, poverty and ignorance, it is focusing on development of more nuclear weapons.
The well-known link between Taliban and Pakistan and many other terrorist groups like the Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (LeT) and its parent organisation Jama-ud-Dawa (JuD) operating in Pakistan has led to the growing fear of the bomb falling in wrong hands in future. This possibility has given a severe bolt to US, a major player in the complex game, particularly after 9/11. In our case, perhaps the best course is to understand deterrence essentially in terms of discouraging Pakistan from taking military action using nuclear weapons by posing to him the prospect of cost and risk that outweighs its prospective gains. We should also try to reduce our own prospective costs and risks in the event of that deterrence failing.
Growing instability with Nawaz Sharif battling the Panama leaks and other corruption charges and Pakistan Army Chief retiring on 29 November, has made the situation in Pakistan complex and unstable. Pakistan refuses to learn any lessons from history and is speeding towards self-destruction. This is dangerous for India with whom it will continue the policy of proxy war at all costs.
During the 1990s, western aid poured into Pakistan to aid anti-narcotics efforts. Islamabad was pressurised to do something to reduce the massive quantities of drugs moving through its territory.
There seemed a nexus between the drug smugglers from Afghanistan and Pakistan’s military and intelligence agencies. In fact, Afghan guerrillas and ISI agents protected and participated in heroin trafficking. Many experts believe that Pakistan has been deliberately encouraging terrorism so that it can milk US and China for more aid which it can use against India. When the US was supporting Afghanistan, it found that the Taliban fighters were using the small arms and ammunition which had the distinctive stamps of US suppliers in California and the Czech Republic. Pentagon has confirmed that America-supplied arms were being used to kill US troops in Afghanistan. Some of those weapons are, in fact, finding their way into the hands of Pakistani Rangers and soldiers who supply them to terrorist organisations fighting India at the Line of Control (LoC).
Pakistan’s direct support for Taliban and al Qaeda has been exposed by George W Bush who served as the president of United States during eight of the most consequential years in American history, in his autobiography Decision Points. For most of his presidency, Pakistan was led by Musharraf. He writes while describing USA’s offensive against Afghanistan, “The most pivotal nation we recruited was Pakistan. No country yielded more influence in Afghanistan than its eastern neighbor. On 9/11, Pakistan was one of the only three countries that recognised the Taliban. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were the other two. As per the book, when he asked Musharraf’s help in countering terrorism, he said, “I give you our assurance that we will cooperate with you against terrorism”.
But the then Afghanistan president Hamid Karzai was certain that Pakistan was harbouring the Taliban and repeatedly accused Musharraf of the same in Bush’s presence. Bush provided money, training and equipment to Pakistan and proposed even joint counterterrorism operations hoping to increase its capabilities to fight terrorism. Bush further writes, “Over time, it became clear that Musharrraf either would not or could not fulfill all his promises. Part of the problem was Pakistan’s obsession with India…As a result , the Pakistani military spent most of its resources preparing for war with India…The fight against the extremists came second.”
Let us review the scene in Asia where a massive arms build-up is taking place with China leading the pack. India has to contend with a rising China in the north, it has also to take all possible precautions against a nuclear Pakistan which is being armed by China at hugely subsidised rates. It is unfortunate that China’s quest for great power status has led to its expansionist approach. It has entered Pakistan in a big way and many members of Pakistan Parliament are debating whether China’s ultimate aim is to increase trade with India and annex Pakistan.
Joffe Ellis writes in his seminal essay, “China undoubtedly wants the Asian countries to acknowledge its paramount position by virtue of its economic strength and political influence and to act accordingly.”
China is not happy being equated with India as the two largest and fastest growing economies and wants to check it with the help of Pakistan. China’s dramatic rise in military power is a matter of concern for the entire world, particularly for India because of its love for Pakistan and increasingly assertive approach. Its exaggerated territorial claims and aggressive behaviour is a problem many nations are facing. Jawaharlal Nehru’s statement, “The Chinese revolution has upset the balance of power and the centre of gravity has shifted from Europe to Asia, thereby directly affecting India”, is truer
today than ever before.
today than ever before.
Methods of warfare and conduct of military operations must be subjected to international laws so that armed forces of enemy countries don’t resort to brutal and cowardly acts not befitting the dignity of soldiers on both sides. Admittedly, in war the opposing forces kill each other for the honour of their own country, but it must be appreciated that both have a just cause as far as they are concerned; they are not fighting a personal battle and their bravery and sacrifice must not be undermined by the enemy forces. In situation of international armed conflicts as it exists between India and Pakistan, international scrutiny by the four Geneva Conventions must apply. Basic principles that need to be followed in such situations are principles of humanity, military necessity, proportionality and distinction between military targets and civilian objects. The body of international laws governing the conduct in military operations is also referred to as, ‘international humanitarian law’.
Pakistan’s record of human rights violations and non-compliance of Geneva Convention makes it truly a rogue state, in any case. Beheading adversary force soldiers and not giving a decent burial to its own is something which only a country like Pakistan can do. Its record of human rights abuse, condemnable acts of mass genocide, murders and rapes by its soldiers in the erstwhile East Pakistan put any civilised nation to shame. It was perhaps for the first time in history that women were targeted and raped by Pakistani soldiers in hundreds of thousands. Women were tied to trees, gangraped and buried in mass graves. Piles of bodies of rape victims indicate that rape was consciously applied as a weapon of war.
Of course, the Indian army created history when it penetrated East Pakistan territory, overthrew a brutal regime and hoisted the flag of Bangladesh. Many experts feel that the liberation of Bangladesh is an unparalleled military achievement of the post World War-II era, and one that was accomplished by India’s armed forces with professionalism, courage and honourable conduct. However, it remains a thorn in the flesh of Pakistan which can never forget the humiliation it faced.
Pakistan fares poorly on all international laws and conventions. A case in point is Pakistan’s record as far as Geneva Conventions (adopted and continuously expanded from1864 to 1949) that represent the legal basis and framework for the conduct of war. The first and the third Conventions specify conditions of the wounded and sick armed forces in the field and treatment of Prisoners of War (PoWs) respectively. The fourth Convention is about the protection of civilian personnel in the times of war. The world knows the treatment Pakistan has been giving to Indian soldiers and PoWs. Recent incidents of bombing of civilians in J&K, causing many deaths and destruction of property of innocent civilians, speak volumes about Pakistan’s concern for international laws. China, Pakistan’s all-weather friend, too has a poor record of human rights compliance.
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