Antichrist Continues To Oppose Iraqi Government

Failing to Reform in Iraq

Iraq is no stranger to political instability or to general insecurity. But two developments bode particularly ill for the country: threats to the administration of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and the progress of anti-Islamic State operations, which could lead to bouts of sectarian violence.
Protests have again erupted against al-Abadi, who has failed to implement the reforms — particularly the corruption reforms — he promised to enact when he came to power in 2014. In an attempt to honor those promises, the prime minister on June 7 dismissed the chief of intelligence, the director general of the commercial bank and the head of the Iraqi Media Network. Notably, the protests actually date back to February, though the most recent differ markedly in that they are led by Muqtada al-Sadr. A popular Shiite figure with political and religious credentials, al-Sadr is adept at galvanizing large numbers of demonstrators on short notice. Protesters are demanding that al-Abadi create a technocratic government in an effort to curb corruption.

But many leaders naturally oppose the installation of such a government; they would rather maintain the power-sharing agreement with ethnic and religious communities that has given them their influence. It is unclear whether al-Abadi will be able to manage all these different interests.

What is clear is that al-Sadr will continue to rally protesters for the rest of the month. It will be important to watch for clashes between security forces and protesters and for more incursions into the Green Zone, both of which could further destabilize Iraq.

Currently there is a bit of a lull in the standoff between the government and protesters, thanks in large part to the gravity of the fight with the Islamic State. Important as that fight may be, it has the potential to aggravate sectarian tensions in the country. So far, sectarian violence has been noticeably absent in the fighting in Ramadi and Tikrit. The same might not be true of Fallujah, whose residents are often said to have been complicit in its capitulation to the Islamic State. Sectarian violence there would create even more problems for al-Abadi. Shiite militias have said they will not enter the city unless Iraqi security forces fail to retake it. The government is trying to prevent their entry to keep forces focused on beating the Islamic State and, just as important, to maintain some semblance of unity.

Still, Shiite militia leaders have become more outspoken in their criticism of al-Abadi’s handling of the situation in Fallujah. Iran, meanwhile, is trying to get Shiite militias more involved in the fight against the Islamic State. And so the Fallujah operation is bound to be long and messy, with plenty of opportunities for Shiite militias to intervene. If that happens, direct clashes between sectarian forces can be expected.