Coming Close To The Nuclear Bowls of Wrath (Revelation 7)

 

Clashes in Kashmir Risk Taking India-Pakistan Back to Brink of Nuclear War

Sputnik

01:13 24.07.2016

 

The long ignored suffering of the Kashmiri people carries with it the world’s greatest risk of full-scale nuclear war between two long-standing adversaries.

 

Tensions have reemerged in the disputed territory of Kashmir, a Muslim-dominated region that has long been controlled by India, but whose population longs to be reunited with their brethren in Pakistan exacerbating longstanding tensions between the two nuclear powers.

Ten years ago, Pakistan and India stepped away from the abyss, after decades of warring over the territory, by deciding in principle to dissipate tensions and allowing the free movement of people and goods across the line of control.

The win-win agreement would have seen the two countries withdraw one million soldiers from Kashmir and administer the territory jointly providing residents more autonomy as progress moved towards a final resolution – but it never happened with then leader Pervez Musharraf attempting to flex his leverage with the Bush administration over the fight against al-Qaeda by stepping away from the table not realizing at the time that he was playing his hand too deep.
Apart from brinksmanship, Musharraf faced another staggering and unexpected challenge when he called on militant Islamist groups occupying Kashmir to disband and demobilize in 2003 to facilitate the diplomatic process – these militants turned into al-Qaeda affiliate Lashkar-e-Taiba that turned its weapons on the people of Mumbai.

The situation in Kashmir today is now as dire as it was when over a million soldiers were always a hair-string trigger way from turning the territory into one of the world’s worst conflict zones. Since July 8, when a popular young Muslim rebel Burhan Wani was killed in a gunfight with Indian security forces, the Kashmiri people have erupted in anger with demonstrations leading to at least 42 killed, hundreds blinded, and some 3,500 people injured.

Today, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif aspires to take back control of Kashmir from India, the granting of which many historical scholars deem a tragic mistake by British administrators.
In 1947, the disastrous partition of India administered by Lord Mountbatten, a friend of India’s founder Jawaharlal Nehru, stripped Pakistan of a future by separating it into two parts – East and West Pakistan – separated by over a thousand miles of India’s territory. The partition itself resulted in the death of some 1 million people and years later, after a bloody war and another 1 million people killed, East Pakistan ultimately became what is known as Bangladesh.

There were other mistakes in the map making process – Mountbatten looked to divide the pieces by Muslims majority areas and Hindu majority areas. Kashmir, however, has always been dominated by the Islamic faith which is espoused by some 70% of the population.

The resource rich territory, a land dispute that also comes with treasures and minerals, sits at the hard of the sibling rivalry between the two countries. With the Kashmiris now clamoring for change, Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s government now seems set on reigniting a nuclear standoff against its long-time rival calling on the people in Kashmir to agitate, demonstrate, and wave Pakistan’s flag.

Pakistan and India now sit on roughly 120 nuclear warheads each – enough to eradicate life from earth several times over – and if the 1989-2002 conflict between the two countries, a violent cycle that led to at least 50,000 deaths according to Human Rights Watch and as many as 90,000 dead Kashmiri Muslims according to retired Congressman Edolphus Towns (D-NY), is any indicator then the situation could escalate rapidly towards a doomsday scenario.

India In The Middle Of An Islamic a Storm

India Will Pay a Heavy Price for Hegemony in Indian Ocean Region

Posted on April 19th, 2015
Dilrook Kannangara

When a Chinese submarine docked in Colombo for supplies, India was needlessly worried. In retaliation India regime changed the Rajapaksa administration installing a puppet regime. This follows India applying the Monroe Doctrine to dominate the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). To assist in its empire building work, India has bought an outdated Soviet aircraft carrier, modernising its military, importing weapons in record numbers and expanding its above surface and below surface military platforms in the ocean. In addition India is building choke points in Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and, in Sri Lanka to harass and pressure Chinese commercial shipping. However, this needless military expansion is doing India more damage than good.

India is Isolated with No Land Based Trade Routes

China is building a landmark railway link to Europe and Africa which will be completed in three (3) years. This railway which comprises three different links will dramatically change trade with Europe. It cuts down transport time and cost by 55%. It opens up Central Asia which offers tremendous potential. It will complement China’s sea based Silk Road. As expansionist India militarises the peaceful Indian Ocean Region with military ambitions, other countries will join in to spoil it for all. Which nation will suffer most? India, because it has to totally depend on the Indian Ocean to get its exports to their destinations and bring in vital imports including crude oil. China can seamlessly operate.

India’s two largest state economies are Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu, both coastal states relying heavily on import and export industries. If the Indian Ocean Region is militarised which complicates its security status, these economies will collapse. It may possibly lead to India’s much anticipated disintegration.

Pakistan Rapidly Expanding Military Power

After years of no real progress Pakistan has found new funding sources to ensure its security and the security of its vital allies. Iran’s expanding nuclear energy program has sent chills down the spine of Saudi leaders. Unable to start its own nuclear weapons program, Saudi relies on Pakistani nuclear power for defence. Therefore it is in Saudi’s best interests to ensure Pakistan maintains a strong nuclear deterrent which can be used to protect Saudi interests too without the nasty effects that come with it. This is a relationship India fears but is unable to influence.

Buoyant by foreign support, Pakistan rapidly expands its nuclear and oceanic weapons platforms. Large submarine fleet expansion is a key development. If India wants to play hard ball in the IOR, it must be ready for competition making this more difficult. With Chinese assistance Pakistan develops its Gwardar port at the Strategic Strait of Hormuz. Pakistani oceanic vessels will match Indian vessels forcing India to take on both Pakistan and China. It is a competition India cannot win.

Waning Russia – India’s All Weather Defence Partner

India survived for close to 70 long years thanks to unconditional support from the Soviet Union and Russia. Highly lethal weapons and their world class technology found their way to India cheaply and at times free. It was a tremendous boon for a poor nation like India. However, Russia’s conventional weapons industry has lost its glamour. Now it is nothing more than ordinary and certainly not world class. China has rapidly caught on. To face this expanding deficiency, India has to rely on western weapons which are at least ten times more expensive than Russian weapons. Unlike generous Russia, India is not getting technology transfer from western nations.

India’s gradual rapprochement with the west has Russia doubting Indian intentions. As a result Russia is now reaching out to Pakistan and China which it shunned until now due to Indian requests.

Panic Stricken India Making Wrong Choices

Panic is taking its toll on India. Its panicky decisions make it worse for India. Out of panic India installed a puppet regime in Sri Lanka, tries to interfere in Nepal, Maldives and Myanmar. Unknown to Indian think tanks, this is driving more and more nations against it. Other powerful Asian nations with commercial interests in mind are now forced to look at the military option to contain India.

Indian interference in Vietnam against China is causing it more harm than good. Tit for tat manoeuvres against China will not take India anywhere as its economy is barely one fourth of China’s.

Indian policy makers must realise panic driven strategies and hegemony make more enemies and no friends. Inevitable disintegration of India is a certainty which can be averted only by focusing on its poor which is the world’s largest. Playing second fiddle to USA is not going to save India as Pakistan learn the hard way in its war against India.

Kashmir Could Catalyze The Nuclear Holocaust (Daniel 8:8)

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A new crisis is brewing between two nuclear-armed neighbors

By Tom Rogan

April 14, 2015

 

India and Pakistan each possess more than 100 nuclear warheads. Their political establishments really don’t like each other. Correspondingly, we should always pay heed to tensions between the two nations.

A new crisis is brewing.

Last week, India announced it will establish protected settlements to rehouse about 200,000 Hindus in the Kashmir Valley. Forced out of Indian Kashmir by Pakistan-supported Islamists in 1989-1990, the displaced citizens are a priority for Narendra Modi’s Hindu-nationalist government. Conversely, Islamist protests illustrate opposition to Hindu empowerment. India and Pakistan have been fighting over the province of Kashmir since independence from Britain in 1947; they have fought three wars over it, in fact.

Then on Friday, Pakistan released Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi, ringleader of the 2008 Mumbai attacks that killed 166 people across India’s financial capital. While Pakistan’s primary intelligence service, the Inter-Services Intelligence agency, has protected Lakhvi from prosecution, his release is striking. Because Pakistan knows that India knows that Lakhvi’s group, Lashkar-e-Taiba, benefits from the spy agency’s support, guidance and shelter. And it’s releasing him anyway.

Believing men like Lakvhi can undercut India’s regional influence, the ISI’s pro-extremist element is flexing its muscles by releasing him. The problem, however, is that it’s not just Lakhvi on the loose. With an array of terrorist groups under its thumb — elements of the Haqqani network and the Pakistani Taliban, for two — the ISI has a terror portfolio with which to wreak havoc. And as attested by the 2001 attack on the Indian parliament, the spy agency has repeatedly proven its support for groups that risk war. Lakhvi’s release is both a physical threat and a possible signal of increasing Pakistani aggression. It illustrates the looming danger in near-term India-Pakistan relations.

Regardless, the present crisis is centrally connected to Kashmir.

As evidenced by statements from Pakistan’s powerful army chief, General Raheel Sharif, and recent exchanges of fire, and with India now building Hindu-sectarian influence in the region, the risk of conflict between the two nations is increasingly real. Still, with Pakistan openly paranoid about India’s greater power, the country’s leaders are likely to regard what’s happening in Kashmir as a reflection of a broader Indian plan to weaken Pakistan.

Pakistan’s hardline anti-India factions will push for a tough response. While General Sharif has shown courage in previously confronting the hard-liners, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s weakness means that he has few reliable allies; the potential for escalation is thus significant. This mix of fear and emotion is at the heart of Pakistani politics and explains why successive governments have been either unwilling or unable to counter terrorist fanatics.

In addition, with Modi in New Delhi, this Indian government is far less tolerant of Pakistani terrorism than its predecessor. A repeat Mumbai 2008 would ignite a far stronger response. The risk is that Pakistan may gamble otherwise.

There is a central reality of international relations at stake here: Extremism is a political toxin that, unconfronted by strong leadership, risks disaster. Whatever happens, we’re left with a tragic truth. Four months after hundreds of school children were brutally murdered, Pakistan is re-energizing its demented waltz with terror.

India And Pakistan In A “Hot War”

INDIA-PAKISTAN RELATIONS: SHIFT FROM CREDIBLE MINIMUM DETERRENCE TO ‘COMPELLENCE’ – OPED

DECEMBER 24, 2014 YASIR HUSSAIN 2 COMMENTS
By Yasir Hussain
The South Asian security architecture became complex and less predictable after India carried out its first nuclear weapons test in 1974 – in a so-called Peaceful nuclear test. Since India only received a slap on the wrist, this partly emboldened New Delhi to test again in 1998 and its abstention from recent voting on the resolution that seeks a ban on future testing makes their intentions doubtful. It remains to be seen, how the international community will react if India resumes testing.
The conflict prone Indo-Pak subcontinent has witnessed an arms buildup by India that Pakistan is trying to match, and nuclear weapons have bridged that conventional military asymmetry to some extent. However, the Indian acquisition of a ballistic missile defense system, massive expenditures on satellites and Russian leased nuclear powered submarines that India is reverse engineering, are dangerous trends. The nature of strategic stability between these arch rivals could then tilt from that of deterrence to compellence, as India could have assumed a sense of enhanced power that may motivate it to coerce by taking ‘pre-emptory action’ rather than deterring Pakistan. The Western powers and other minions, who have economic or geo-strategic interests with India, unfortunately encourage this imbalance in power. This dangerous trend could push the region towards perpetual instability.
This shift in Indian policy of credible minimum deterrence is motivated by global power ambitions and has become possible because of three reasons: India’s economic rise, its narrative to project itself as a prospective counter-weight China and willingness of Beijing’s competitors to let New Delhi bid to such position. The facts are, however, a bit different. It is not necessary that India could do American and Western bidding to actually contain China. Like them, New Delhi also has huge trade interests with Beijing and there is visible economic interdependence. In this sense, China does not react to Indian provocations to consider it is a competitor.
Since, the BJP came into power, security artists in New Delhi have drafted policies for more bombs and better ways to deliver them. The shift in the Indian nuclear posture from credible minimum deterrence to that of effective deterrence is clear from the recent developments that have taken place since Modi came to power. Developments, such as flight testing of the subsonic cruise missile, Nirbhay, ICBM Agni V, super-sonic cruise missile Brahmos, Dhanush missiles, and the most controversial Indo-Australian uranium deal and recent refusal to the UN Draft resolution on NPT depicts Modi’s over–consciousness in national security. Recently, the BJP government has opted to buy $525m worth of Spike anti-tank guided missiles from Israel. Indian echoes arms imports have increased by 111% within 3 to 4 years and its weapons purchases account for about 14% of the global arms trade.
Indian domestic politics also plays a role in this policy shift. The Indian nuclear establishment creates the conditions that favor weapons acquisitions by encouraging extreme foreign threats and actively lobbying for increased defense spending. The roots of Modi’s security driven initiatives can be found in BJP’s maiden budget that overwhelmingly boosted its defense budget to 12% and foreign direct investment in domestic weapons industry has also increased to 49%. The nuclear establishment in India has the lion’s share in the country’s defense budget and more importantly a nod from Modi in making more sophisticated missile systems – a shift to reliance on hard power.
From the developments of last three months, it can be seen that the word minimum has lost its meaning in Indian nuclear policy of deterrence. Minimum is just a hangover of a bygone era that was only associated with an economically weak India. With newfound money and political support, India is pushing towards a more aggressive nuclear posture to deter regional adversaries. In pursuit of regional hegemony, its nuclear posture is even more aggressive than other nuclear powers. India sees its unchecked nuclear spending as a policy tool in achieving national interests. It is quite clear that, in the near future Modi’s hawkish policies and aggressive doctrinal shift will further deteriorate regional peace and stability — and Western myopia has let this happen.