How China is desperate to Complete Pakistan’s Nuclear triad
Published August 4, 2015 | By admin
SOURCE: SUDESH CHARI / FOR MY TAKE / IDRW.ORG
“You can die crossing the street,” he observed, “or you could die in a nuclear war. You’ve got to die some day anyway.” Pakistan’s ambassador to the UN in Geneva, Munir Akram, reiterated Pakistan’s refusal of a no-first-use policy amid 2001-2002 India-Pakistan standoff after an attack on Indian Parliament, then India’s Defence Minister George Fernandes responded by saying “India can survive a nuclear attack, but Pakistan cannot”.
For long Pakistan believed that its aggressive nuclear posturing will deter any Indian response in event of any terror-related incidents but all that changed due to two main development in India, which many in India believed gave India enough reasons to call Pakistan’s nuclear bluff.
India’s Mythical Cold start doctrine shattered Pakistani military planners confidence that its nuclear weapons will deter India from every crossing Line of Control or the international border. Popular belief in Pakistani military after Kargil war and after the 2001-2002 standoff was that Nuclear Arsenal of Pakistan had successfully deterred India from carrying out surgical strikes in Pakistan against terror infrastructure.
India’s Cold start doctrine gave India some level of advantage since it allowed Indian armies Strike corps to assemble on shortest notice period and gave the ability to launch an attack before International pressure could build up on India.
In response to India’s Cold start doctrine, Pakistan came up with the development of two key projects to counter or stop Indian armies strike corps from bulldozing its way into Pakistan. Pakistan developed battlefield Ballistic missile Nasr which when armed with a tactical nuclear weapon could be used to attack invading force even when Indian Army is well inside Pakistani territories.
India on other hand refused to start tactical nuclear weapons race with Pakistan which India could have countered by allowing invading Strike corps to move with tactical nuclear weapons, Indian military planners stuck to strategic nuclear weapons and responded by saying that No Matter what will be size of nukes or where our forces are attacked our response will be massive, this left an element of doubt on Pakistani military planners on effectiveness on use of Tactical nukes which might deny them use of strategic nuclear weapons on Indian territories.
In 2012, Pakistan established new Naval Strategic Force Command, described by the military as the custodian of the country’s nuclear second strike capability which will strengthen Pakistan’s policy of credible minimum deterrence and ensure regional stability which they believed shifted due to launch of India’s first nuclear INS Arihant ballistic missile submarine .
Shortly after visit of Chinese president Xi visit from Pakistani, there was media buzz about talks which was underway with china in supply of eight Conventional diesel submarines in a 5$ billion deal that could more than double Pakistan’s submarine fleet size.
Submarine in question which have been offered are Yuan-Class Diesel submarines in line Kilo submarine currently operated by Indian Navy, But submarine which Pakistanis are eyeing to complete their low-cost Nuclear triad against rise of expensive Nuclear submarine program initiated by India in the region is to procure much larger Qing-Class submarines which reportedly are equipped with vertical launch system which will allow Pakistan to deploy permanent sea-based deterrent equipped with plutonium-based warheads fitted into Submarine launched variant of Babur cruise missiles which can strike targets 700-1000km.
AIP-equipped conventional submarines with Cruise missiles armed with Tactical nukes will provide Cheaper second strike platform for Pakistani military against rising Nuclear submarine force which India is developing which is both Capital intensive and involves technically complex technology which Pakistan cannot match
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