Major terror attack against India could trigger Nuclear-war
Pakistan may use nuclear weapons against India if the latter goes for
a large scale military assault against it in retaliation for a major
terror attack emanating from across the border, two top American experts
have warned US lawmakers.
Posted on Feb 26 2015 – 4:43pm by IBC World
Given
the presence of a strong government in New Delhi and the pressure on it
from Indian citizens in the event of a repeat of 26/11 type terror
attack, the ties between the
two neighbours have greater danger of escalating towards a devastating
nuclear warfare, in particular from Pakistan.
Such
a dangerous scenario can only be avoided by the US working with
Islamabad to ensure that there is no further large scale terror attack
on India emanating from Pakistan, two top American experts. George
Perkovich and Ashley Tellis, told members of the powerful Senate Armed
Services Committe and Sub committee on Strategic Forces during a hearing
yesterday.
“South
Asia is the most likely place nuclear weapons could be detonated in the
foreseeable future. This risk derives from the unusual dynamic of the
India-Pakistan competition,” said Perkovich, vice president for Studies Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“The
next major terrorist attack in India, emanating from Pakistan, may
trigger an Indian conventional military riposte that could in turn
prompt Pakistan to use battlefield nuclear weapons to repel an Indian
incursion. India, for its part, has declared that it would inflict
massive retaliation in response to any nuclear use against its territory
or troops,” he said.
“Obviously,
this threatening dynamic, whereby terrorism may prompt conventional
conflict which may prompt nuclear war – challenges Indian and Pakistan
policy- makers. India and
Pakistan both tend to downplay or dismiss the potential for escalation,
but our own history of close nuclear calls should make US officials more
alert to these dangers.
The
US is the only outside power that could intervene diplomatically and
forcefully to de-escalate a crisis,” Perkovich said. Tellis said the
most useful US contribution towards preventing a Pakistani use of
nuclear weapons in such a scenario and the Indian nuclear retribution
that would result thereafter, would be to press Pakistan to exit the
terrorism business or risk being left alone (or, even worse, the object
of sanctions) if a major Indian military response ensues in the
aftermath of any pernicious terrorist attack.
“Other
than this, there is little that the United States can do to preserve
deterrence stability between two asymmetrically-sized states where the
gap in power promises to become even wider tomorrow than it is today,”
he said. Both the experts, who are from the Carnegie, told members of
the Senate sub-committee that Pakistan today has more nuclear weapons
than that of India.
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