Saudi Arabia’s Abdullah Leaves Behind Unrealized Renewable and Nuclear Power Ambitions
One of the many monuments dedicated to Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Saud — more commonly known as King Abdullah of Saudia Arabia, whose 10-year reign over the Middle Eastern oil giant ended with his death on Friday — is the independent renewable and nuclear energy organization founded under his name.
The King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy, or Ka-Care, was established by royal decree in 2010, with the nominal aim of “[B]uilding a sustainable future for Saudi Arabia by developing a substantial alternative energy capacity fully supported by world-class local industries.”
It was a tactical move. King Abdullah was well-known for working to keep oil prices high enough to sustain lucrative revenues for the world’s second largest oil producer, but low enough to keep international customers thirsty for petroleum. But he also knew that the oil treadmill could quickly prove unsustainable for the kingdom, which has a booming population and rapidly increasing electricity needs — particularly for energy-intensive technologies like water desalination, on which Saudi Arabia greatly depends.
The stakes were made abundantly clear in a sobering 2011 report from Chatham House, the London-based international affairs think tank. That analysis was stark in its conclusions: “Saudi Arabia’s energy consumption pattern is unsustainable,” the authors declared. “The country currently consumes over one-quarter of its total oil production – some 2.8 million barrels a day. This means that on a ‘business as usual’ trajectory it would become a net oil importer in 2038.
London’s Chatham House warned in 2011 that Saudi Arabia could become a net importer of oil in just a couple of decades. (Chart: Chatham House)
“No one is suggesting this is the most likely outcome,” the report added, “but the possibility does signal the urgency of the need for change.”
In 2012, Ka-Care seemed to respond to the challenge, laying out plans to build some 41 gigawatts of solar power ahead of that 2038 time frame. It also suggested it would develop more than 20 gigwatts worth of geothermal and wind power, and it established plans to construct 16 nuclear power plants with 17 gigawatts of capacity over the next 20 years, according to the World Nuclear Association, a trade group.
At the moment, Saudi Arabia’s electricity is produced almost exclusively by burning oil and natural gas.
The nuclear end of things had been progressing steadily, with GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy and Toshiba/Westinghouse penning deals in 2013 with Exelon Nuclear Partners, the nuclear arm of Exelon Generation, to seek out construction agreements with Ka-Care, which was to begin soliciting bids in 2014.
Those plans began to drag last year, however, and with the steady decline in oil prices seeming to sap any sense of urgency in the kingdom’s power markets, official delays seemed inevitable. The first signs came to fruition on Monday, just days before King Abdullah’s passing, when the president of Ka-Care announced revisions in the timeframe for its ambitious upgrades.
“The plan started by looking at 20 years down the road, with the year 2032 as the major milestone for long-term planning,” Hashim Yamani, president of the King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy, was quoted as saying at an energy conference in Abu Dhabi. “Recently, however, we have revised the outlook together with our stakeholders to focus on 2040 as the major milestone for long-term energy planning in Saudi Arabia.”
Among other things, the delays put the brakes on a much-anticipated, $109 billion solar plant that was slated to produce nearly one-third of the nation’s electricity by 2032. The move prompted market consultancy IHS to downgrade its outlook for near-term photovoltaic installations in the country, though it added that “in the long-term, the argument to reduce oil consumption remains valid, for which IHS expects Saudi to deploy the bulk of new [photovoltaic] capacity in the period from 2020 to 2040.”
Still, it remains to be seen how the country’s energy diversification plan will proceed with the passing of its key booster. As it stands, Saudi Arabia’s population has exploded over the last 50 years, growing from just 4 million in 1960 to nearly 30 million today. The nation ranks among the world’s highest per-capita energy consumers, just behind the United States.
Tom Zeller Jr. has written on energy and environment for The New York Times, The Washington Post, National Geographic, HuffPost and Bloomberg View. You can follow him on Twitter @tomzellerjr.
One of the many monuments dedicated to Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Saud — more commonly known as King Abdullah of Saudia Arabia, whose 10-year reign over the Middle Eastern oil giant ended with his death on Friday — is the independent renewable and nuclear energy organization founded under his name.
The King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy, or Ka-Care, was established by royal decree in 2010, with the nominal aim of “[B]uilding a sustainable future for Saudi Arabia by developing a substantial alternative energy capacity fully supported by world-class local industries.”
It was a tactical move. King Abdullah was well-known for working to keep oil prices high enough to sustain lucrative revenues for the world’s second largest oil producer, but low enough to keep international customers thirsty for petroleum. But he also knew that the oil treadmill could quickly prove unsustainable for the kingdom, which has a booming population and rapidly increasing electricity needs — particularly for energy-intensive technologies like water desalination, on which Saudi Arabia greatly depends.
The stakes were made abundantly clear in a sobering 2011 report from Chatham House, the London-based international affairs think tank. That analysis was stark in its conclusions: “Saudi Arabia’s energy consumption pattern is unsustainable,” the authors declared. “The country currently consumes over one-quarter of its total oil production – some 2.8 million barrels a day. This means that on a ‘business as usual’ trajectory it would become a net oil importer in 2038.
London’s Chatham House warned in 2011 that Saudi Arabia could become a net importer of oil in just a couple of decades. (Chart: Chatham House)
“No one is suggesting this is the most likely outcome,” the report added, “but the possibility does signal the urgency of the need for change.”
In 2012, Ka-Care seemed to respond to the challenge, laying out plans to build some 41 gigawatts of solar power ahead of that 2038 time frame. It also suggested it would develop more than 20 gigwatts worth of geothermal and wind power, and it established plans to construct 16 nuclear power plants with 17 gigawatts of capacity over the next 20 years, according to the World Nuclear Association, a trade group.
At the moment, Saudi Arabia’s electricity is produced almost exclusively by burning oil and natural gas.
The nuclear end of things had been progressing steadily, with GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy and Toshiba/Westinghouse penning deals in 2013 with Exelon Nuclear Partners, the nuclear arm of Exelon Generation, to seek out construction agreements with Ka-Care, which was to begin soliciting bids in 2014.
Those plans began to drag last year, however, and with the steady decline in oil prices seeming to sap any sense of urgency in the kingdom’s power markets, official delays seemed inevitable. The first signs came to fruition on Monday, just days before King Abdullah’s passing, when the president of Ka-Care announced revisions in the timeframe for its ambitious upgrades.
“The plan started by looking at 20 years down the road, with the year 2032 as the major milestone for long-term planning,” Hashim Yamani, president of the King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy, was quoted as saying at an energy conference in Abu Dhabi. “Recently, however, we have revised the outlook together with our stakeholders to focus on 2040 as the major milestone for long-term energy planning in Saudi Arabia.”
Among other things, the delays put the brakes on a much-anticipated, $109 billion solar plant that was slated to produce nearly one-third of the nation’s electricity by 2032. The move prompted market consultancy IHS to downgrade its outlook for near-term photovoltaic installations in the country, though it added that “in the long-term, the argument to reduce oil consumption remains valid, for which IHS expects Saudi to deploy the bulk of new [photovoltaic] capacity in the period from 2020 to 2040.”
Still, it remains to be seen how the country’s energy diversification plan will proceed with the passing of its key booster. As it stands, Saudi Arabia’s population has exploded over the last 50 years, growing from just 4 million in 1960 to nearly 30 million today. The nation ranks among the world’s highest per-capita energy consumers, just behind the United States.
Tom Zeller Jr. has written on energy and environment for The New York Times, The Washington Post, National Geographic, HuffPost and Bloomberg View. You can follow him on Twitter @tomzellerjr.
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