Pakistan at an existential point
Make no mistake: Pakistan is at an existential point in its almost 70-year history. The
ghastly killing of nearly 150 students and adults in Peshawar earlier
this month was more than an atrocity. This act of terror orchestrated by
the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has forced Pakistan and Pakistanis
to confront the most critical question since partition in 1947: is
Pakistan to be a democracy under the rule of law or a pseudo-state
serving as a shell and shill for breeding extremism, terror and threats
to humanity? While the jury is out, the indications are that unless
and until Pakistanis realise the precariousness and danger of the
current situation, do not bet on democracy. Indeed, while still an
outside wager, do not discount the prospect of the TTP fomenting civil
war and unseating any semblance of a democratic government.
Of course, Pakistanis were so sufficiently outraged six years ago when a videotape of the Taliban beating a young girl went viral that the army could be sent to Swat to clean out these ‘miscreants’. But a great deal has happened since to change perceptions. First, for too many Pakistanis, the US has superseded the Taliban as the enemy. Drone attacks and collateral damage, however small, provoked understandable resentment. The Abbottabad raid that killed Osama bin Laden is still seen as an attack against Pakistani sovereignty. The Raymond Davis case in which two Pakistanis were gunned down in more or less cold blood and then Davis was freed accelerated anti-US sentiments. And former chairman of the US Joint Chiefs, Admiral Mike Mullen’s parting shot calling the Afghan Taliban a “veritable arm” of the Inter-Services Intelligence Agency (ISI) brought the relationship to a nadir.
Over the last year, as time passed, the relationship with the US improved. However, fundamentalism has spread and more Pakistanis have turned to tolerate, if not accept, extremism. Nearly a decade ago, then President and General Pervez Musharraf mightily tried to close down extremist clerics and thousands of madrassas that fostered this distorted interpretation of Islam. He failed. No one has tried since.
Four years ago this January, Punjab’s Governor Salmaan Taseer was brutally murdered by one of his bodyguards for challenging the blasphemy laws. Judges and courts are terrified of trying the assassin who was viewed as a hero by large numbers of the public, including lawyers. Two years ago, when asked by then Senator John Kerry as to why Pakistan would not take on the Haqqani network, a senior diplomat replied: “If we did, they would burn my house down!” About 80,000 Pakistanis and soldiers have died so far in this battle against extremism. The assault into North Waziristan earlier this year was long overdue although the army has been overstretched. Meanwhile, the TTP are consolidating and plotting.
While Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has promised that distinctions between ‘good’ (i.e. Afghan) and ‘bad’ (i.e. Pakistani) Taliban no longer exist, the government lacks the stomach, backbone and brains to neutralise these extremists and their fellow travelling criminal organisations such as the Haqqanis and others. The formation of military courts to try terrorists because civilian courts cannot be trusted to dispense justice is an understandable but further strain on the constitution and democracy.
What can be done? First, the US and other external powers have little leverage. However, in the case of the US, removing textile tariffs on Pakistani cotton goods is long overdue. Such a step will have greater psychological and political benefit than economic. But that is essential to enhance US influence in other areas. Second, outside states can move Pakistan to closer dialogue with India and Afghanistan. Given the new leadership in both neighbours, the time was never riper for fruitful diplomatic initiatives. Given the TTP’s intent on launching another Mumbai-like attack to generate a crisis and possibly war between India and Pakistan, both nuclear armed, pre-emptive steps must be taken now to prevent such a crisis. Third, Pakistan also needs an additional 100,000 or so in the police force. Outside aid and assistance to help fund this force is essential.
A further list of actions is too lengthy to repeat, ranging from dealing with grave water, electricity and food shortages to de-radicalisation and providing jobs and hope for the 80 to 90 million young Pakistanis who are without both. Many will argue that Pakistan will muddle through. Tragically, the Peshawar massacre contradicts that expectation. It is up to Pakistan and Pakistanis. Do they wish Pakistan to be a liberal democracy or a haven for terror, violence and terrorists? The choice is theirs.
Of course, Pakistanis were so sufficiently outraged six years ago when a videotape of the Taliban beating a young girl went viral that the army could be sent to Swat to clean out these ‘miscreants’. But a great deal has happened since to change perceptions. First, for too many Pakistanis, the US has superseded the Taliban as the enemy. Drone attacks and collateral damage, however small, provoked understandable resentment. The Abbottabad raid that killed Osama bin Laden is still seen as an attack against Pakistani sovereignty. The Raymond Davis case in which two Pakistanis were gunned down in more or less cold blood and then Davis was freed accelerated anti-US sentiments. And former chairman of the US Joint Chiefs, Admiral Mike Mullen’s parting shot calling the Afghan Taliban a “veritable arm” of the Inter-Services Intelligence Agency (ISI) brought the relationship to a nadir.
Over the last year, as time passed, the relationship with the US improved. However, fundamentalism has spread and more Pakistanis have turned to tolerate, if not accept, extremism. Nearly a decade ago, then President and General Pervez Musharraf mightily tried to close down extremist clerics and thousands of madrassas that fostered this distorted interpretation of Islam. He failed. No one has tried since.
Four years ago this January, Punjab’s Governor Salmaan Taseer was brutally murdered by one of his bodyguards for challenging the blasphemy laws. Judges and courts are terrified of trying the assassin who was viewed as a hero by large numbers of the public, including lawyers. Two years ago, when asked by then Senator John Kerry as to why Pakistan would not take on the Haqqani network, a senior diplomat replied: “If we did, they would burn my house down!” About 80,000 Pakistanis and soldiers have died so far in this battle against extremism. The assault into North Waziristan earlier this year was long overdue although the army has been overstretched. Meanwhile, the TTP are consolidating and plotting.
While Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has promised that distinctions between ‘good’ (i.e. Afghan) and ‘bad’ (i.e. Pakistani) Taliban no longer exist, the government lacks the stomach, backbone and brains to neutralise these extremists and their fellow travelling criminal organisations such as the Haqqanis and others. The formation of military courts to try terrorists because civilian courts cannot be trusted to dispense justice is an understandable but further strain on the constitution and democracy.
What can be done? First, the US and other external powers have little leverage. However, in the case of the US, removing textile tariffs on Pakistani cotton goods is long overdue. Such a step will have greater psychological and political benefit than economic. But that is essential to enhance US influence in other areas. Second, outside states can move Pakistan to closer dialogue with India and Afghanistan. Given the new leadership in both neighbours, the time was never riper for fruitful diplomatic initiatives. Given the TTP’s intent on launching another Mumbai-like attack to generate a crisis and possibly war between India and Pakistan, both nuclear armed, pre-emptive steps must be taken now to prevent such a crisis. Third, Pakistan also needs an additional 100,000 or so in the police force. Outside aid and assistance to help fund this force is essential.
A further list of actions is too lengthy to repeat, ranging from dealing with grave water, electricity and food shortages to de-radicalisation and providing jobs and hope for the 80 to 90 million young Pakistanis who are without both. Many will argue that Pakistan will muddle through. Tragically, the Peshawar massacre contradicts that expectation. It is up to Pakistan and Pakistanis. Do they wish Pakistan to be a liberal democracy or a haven for terror, violence and terrorists? The choice is theirs.
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