By JERUSALEM POST STAFF JUNE 15, 2021 13:36
Clashes broke out between the IDF and Palestinians in the area surrounding the border fence between Israel and the southern Gaza Strip, according to Ynet.During the clashes, a Palestinian within the small group was shot in the leg and is in light condition.
US nuclear arms posture sends misleading signals to trap adversaries
By Wei Dongxu
A screengrab of US Strategic Command’s Twitter post
US Strategic Command issued a posture statement preview on Tuesday, saying “The spectrum of conflict today is neither linear nor predictable. We must account for the possibility of conflict leading to conditions which could very rapidly drive an adversary to consider nuclear use as their least bad option.” This is not only a warning signal meant for US policymakers, but also a tactic to try to trap its “adversaries,” such as China and Russia, into a nuclear arms race.
This posture statement preview is mainly aimed at Russia because it has updated its nuclear weapons with brand new nuclear strike approaches. For instance, the Petrel, a nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed cruise missile, is claimed to have virtually unlimited range. And Poseidon, a massive nuclear torpedo, can reportedly carry a nuclear warhead with a yield of up to 100 megatons to most parts of the world while remaining extremely deep beneath the surface.
As the US does not possess weapons with such capabilities, it is anxious.
The preview sends two messages. The US hopes to promote its defense capabilities to counter Russia’s new weapons as well as boosting its own innovation in nuclear weapon development. Meanwhile, it shows that the US attaches great significance to its own nuclear power, and it will keep investing in and upgrading its nuclear arsenal. This is a warning toward the outside would.
As a matter of fact, the possibility of an outbreak of direct nuclear conflict between the US and Russia is very low, as both countries have a considerable number of powerful nuclear weapons. If there is a nuclear clash, it will be catastrophic for both countries. Therefore, the US will definitely not make a nuclear threat against a major nuclear power. It might only aim at small- and medium-sized regional military powers. The US will probably use tactical nuclear weapons rather than weapons of mass destruction.
However, the Pentagon, including US Strategic Command, is exaggerating the possibility of a nuclear war with its rivals. They are hyping that such a nuclear war is just around the corner to get more funds to build up the US’ nuclear arsenal and develop new weapons.
Nevertheless, ties between the US and Russia do confront challenges, and the biggest stems from the breakdown in military communication. Washington has withdrawn from agreements such as the Treaty on Open Skies and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. That being said, there is basically no military communication mechanism between Washington and Moscow. As the hostility and suspicion toward each other spirals up, some senior officials from the Pentagon consider Russia to be increasingly dangerous. In their opinion, some of Moscow’s innovations regarding nuclear weapons are directed against Washington, and the weapons may even be used against the US at any time.
So this preview is made based on mistrust and suspicion toward Russia. Such sentiment could lead to a nuclear arms race.
Besides, the US Strategic Command has also been hyping up the possibility of a nuclear war with China. In February, head of the command Charles Richard warned that “there is a real possibility that a regional crisis with Russia or China could escalate quickly to a conflict involving nuclear weapons.” As China develops its conventional military power and Moscow restores its, Washington’s conventional forces are losing their overwhelming advantage compared with the other two.
Out of fear that the US could be defeated in a future large-scale conventional war, the country is turning to focus more on nuclear options. This reflects the US’ lack of confidence in its conventional military forces.
The US does want to provoke a nuclear arms race. The cost of a full-scale nuclear upgrade is astronomical. If more advanced nuclear weapons are produced, maintenance and security costs are also high. The US has enough budget, plus it enjoys its dollar hegemony and can print money at any time when needed, so it hopes to provoke the race and draw China and Russia in. Such a race will consume a large proportion of their military spending, and might even undermine their economic strength.
However, China and Russia are not buying it. Taking China as an example, its nuclear weapons are designed for defense. It is not interested in competing with the US in terms of quantity or performance of the nuclear weapons. This US strategy once wore down the Soviet Union during the Cold War. China will not be fooled by the same trick.
The author is a Beijing-based military analyst. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn
Iran : A ‘cat’ going for an atomic bomb
Iran’s Minister of Intelligence of the Islamic Republic, Mohammad Alavi, made a rather strange analogy in his recent interview:
“[Supreme Leader Ali] Khamenei issued a fatwa (religious decree) in February 2010 stating that acquiring atomic bomb for Iran was considered a sin and the Islamic Republic would not pursue it. But if a cat is pushed to a corner, it may behave differently than if it was free. If Iran is pushed in that direction (production of a nuclear bomb), then Iran cannot be blamed for,” said Alavi (Iran’s Channel 2 TV, February 8, 2021).
Alavi likened the regime to a cat trapped in a corner. This analogy is a good indication of the situation in which the regime finds itself. Considering the volatile state of the Iranian regime, especially in recent months, one could be certain that these revelations could not have been expressed with Iran’s supreme leader’s permission. It is believed that Khamenei, via the intelligence minister, wants to put the International Atomic Energy Agency in a quandary and to convince them to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement. This quandary is just a wish for Iran’s supreme leader and will never materialize.
But there’s a March 3, 2021 deadline.
Speaking on the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution in Iran, Javad Zarif, Iran’s Foreign Minister, warned the United States that with the new government in Washington, there is an opportunity to try a new approach towards Iran. Still, the present circumstances are not going to last long.
Zarif’s deputy, Abbas Araghchi, reiterated that if sanctions were not lifted before Feb. 21, 2021, Iran would have no choice but to suspend the implementation of nuclear protocols. “If nothing happens before Feb. 21, 2021, and the sanctions are not lifted before that date, we have no choice but to implement the decisions of our government. So we will stop implementing the nuclear protocols, which means that the number of inspections by the IAEA will be decreased, and there would be fewer IAEA inspectors,” said Araqchi.
Why is Iran so persistent on so many fronts?
The geopolitics of the region has changed entirely since 2015. Iran’s influence in Lebanon and Iraq has been widely questioned and challenged. Regime forces in Syria have been bombed by Israel at least 500 times. Russia is pressuring Iran to reduce its influence and footprint in Syria further. Israel’s agreements with the UAE and other Arab countries are a new front against Iran. The Islamic Republic has gone through two uprisings since 2015, in 2017 and 2019. In February 2019’s mass uprising, the Khamenei’s regime survived by opening fire at mass demonstrations, killing at least 1,500 people.
Ghasem Soleimani, the second person in the regime’s hierarchy of power and the central figure in its regional influence, was killed in January 2020 in Baghdad. Considering all the above reasons, Western countries are unwilling to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement without discussing Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities and its export of terrorism to the neighboring countries. Of course, Iran’s worsening state of human rights could be also be included in the final agreement (if any).
In an interview with China’s CJT network, Araqchi, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister, rejected U.S. President Joe Biden’s inclination to include Iran’s missile program and other regional issues in possible negotiations with the Islamic Republic of Iran. He mentioned that matters of discussion must consist of restrictions on Iran’s peaceful nuclear program and the lifting of sanctions. In a meeting with the commanders of the army’s air force and air defense, Khamenei said: “The Islamic Republic’s firm policy regarding the nuclear agreement is lifting all sanctions by the United States and its verification by Iran. Only then will Iran return to its obligations penned in the nuclear deal.” In the past, Khamenei had repeatedly reiterated that Iran could do without the nuclear agreement.
On the contrary, Iran is in dire need of the revival of the nuclear agreement. Opposition to the nuclear agreement or exhibiting indifference towards it by different Iran authorities is intended to show a strong façade to the regime’s loyalists and nothing more. On many occasions, Javad Zarif has admitted that he does not determine Iran’s foreign policies. Moreover, according to Iranian law, Iran’s Minister of Intelligence is appointed by Khamenei, so it is naive to think that either Zarif or Alavi have made such revelations without Khamenei’s approval. All signs indicate that Khamenei is indeed eager to return to the 2015 nuclear agreement.
Will Khamenei sign a possible 2021 nuclear agreement?
The two uprisings of 2017 and 2019 and the increasing dismay of Iran’s oppressed people have chased Iran’s Supreme Leader into a corner, like a cat trapped in a dead-end alley seeking any refuge or escape. The oppressed people of Iran are on the move and are not planning to stop.
Some observers close to the regime’s intelligence circles think that the regime had expected massive uprisings in the summer of 2021, perhaps one that would have brought this regime to the end of its life. The arrival of COVID-19 to Iran, and the high number of casualties provided the regime with some temporary breathing room. However, recent hasty executions (34 executions per month) and installing various patrols and guards throughout the country indicate that the regime is alert and watchful, hoping to prolong its existence.
Khamenei in fact is cornered by the imminent uprisings and an array of sanctions.
The Iranian regime’s existence has always been based on two pillars: internal repression and the export of terrorism. Terrorism and war have been a cover-up for gross human rights abuses at home and a justification for suppressing the people’s economic and social expectations.
A possible 2021 agreement could have advantages for Iran, temporarily. The regime will be forced to abandon one of its pillars of survival, the export of terrorism. The regime will lose its equilibrium and balance and speed towards its collapse and overthrown in this scenario. Looking back at the parliamentary elections of 2020 in Iran, most of the candidates not affiliated with Khamenei were disqualified and banned from being elected. Khamenei had tried to bring the parliament under his absolute control and was somehow successful. If Iran enters a possible 2021 nuclear agreement, it seems the so-called reformists may benefit from it politically, and it could be considered an act of defeat for Khamenei.
This situation could be a critical crack in its tight grip on people’s will and will result in massive uprisings, the one that Khamenei’s regime will not survive.
If Khamenei refuses any possible 2021 nuclear deal and lets the stream of sanctions and economic collapse continue, sooner than later, the beginning of a nationwide uprising will be ignited, one that Khamenei could not survive, too.
Image: Mostafa Meraji / Pixabay / Pixabay License
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