Trump tells us it’s time to fight another nation: Iran!Posted by Larry Kummer, Editor 7 April 2018
Summary: In May Trump might void the nuclear arms agreement with Iran and impose sanctions. A fit ending for four decades of propaganda about its nuclear program, adding yet another nation to those we are in cold or hot fights with. Look at the long history of false predictions about Iran’s nukes. We can stop this madness.
Contents
1 Trump accuses Iran.
2 Flashback to 1984.
3 Flashback to 1991 – 2000.
4 Flashback to 2009.
5 Flashback to 2010.
6 Flash forward to today.
7 Churchill shows how its done.
8 And North Korea too!
9 For more information.
10 Books about nuclear intel.
(1) Trump accuses Iran
The deal about Iran’s nuclear program was agreed upon in July 2015. Waiver of economic sanctions on Tehran which come up for renewal every 120 days. Every 90 days Trump has to certify that Iran is complying with the nuclear deal.
In a January statement Trump called it “disastrously flawed.” He said that Congress should impose four kinds of new restrictions on Iran – and that they permanently restrict Iran. Trump want the other participants to agree (Britain, Russia, France, China, Germany, and the EU). He is attempting to force changes in Iran’s political regime and foreign policy, and claims that the deal is too weak to prevent Iran from building nukes. The first is quite mad – considering the results of America’s interference in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya. The second is delusional. His last paragraph is bizarre.
“No one should doubt my word. I said I would not certify the nuclear deal – and I did not. I will also follow through on this pledge. I hereby call on key European countries to join with the United States in fixing significant flaws in the deal, countering Iranian aggression, and supporting the Iranian people. If other nations fail to act during this time, I will terminate our deal with Iran. Those who, for whatever reason, choose not to work with us will be siding with the Iranian regime’s nuclear ambitions, and against the people of Iran and the peaceful nations of the world.”
US Government Policy
The reactions to Trump’s statement show one of the amazing characteristic of many US journalists: their amnesia, writing news as if the past never happened. They are the journalists we deserve, with our willingness to accept the flimsiest propaganda and forgetting the government’s exaggerations and outright lies. Our weaknesses might be the greatest threat to the Republic. We can and must do better, which will drive our institutions (e.g., government and press) to higher standards.
Trump’s team is preparing for his decision to withdraw from the deal. Many observers believe Trump’s new national security team – all hawks, many with a history of recklessness and poor judgement – will encourage Trump’s ignorance and imprudence. It would be a fitting climate to 34 years of warmongering and propaganda. Let’s read this sad story.
As you read it, remember that US elites have begun a new cold war with Russia. Trump is starting a trade war with China. And now a cold war with Iran. Plus our war in Afghanistan, involvement in Syria, and increasing participation in civil conflict in Africa. We do not need Nostradamus to see that this belligerence will end badly for America.
(2) Flashback to 1984 – Iran will have the bomb soon!
“Iran is engaged in the production of an atomic bomb, likely to be ready within two years, according to press reports in the Persian Gulf last week.”
— Jane’s Defense Weekly, 24 April 1984.
“Four years later, the world was again put on notice, this time by Iraq, that Tehran was at the nuclear threshold, and in 1992 the CIA foresaw atomic arms in Iranian hands by 2000. Then U.S. officials pushed that back to 2003. And in 1997 the Israelis confidently predicted a new date — 2005.”
— “Ever a ‘threat,’ never an atomic power, Iran points up challenges of nuclear technology” in the AP, 27 February 2007 (red emphasis added).
(3) Flashback to 1991, 1993, 1995, 1996, 1998, and 2000 – nukes soon!
“Bad Intelligence – But in Which Direction?” by Justin Logan at Cato, 24 August 2006.
“Since the topic of the day seems to be right-wing anger {NYT, WaPo} at insufficiently panicky intelligence assessments on Iran, it might be worth looking at how bad U.S. intelligence on Iran is – and in which direction it’s been wrong. Anthony Cordesman and Khalid al-Rodhan have helpfully assembled a catalog of intelligence community predictions about Iran’s nuclear weapons program in their excellent book, Iran’s Weapons of Mass Destruction: The Real and Potential Threat. Here are just a few assessments.
‘Late 1991: In congressional reports and CIA assessments, the United States estimates that there is a ‘high degree of certainty that the government of Iran has acquired all or virtually all of the components required for the construction of 2 to 3 nuclear weapons.’ A February 1992 report by the U.S. House of Representatives suggests that these 2 or 3 nuclear weapons will be operational between February and April 1992.’
‘February 24, 1993: CIA director James Woolsey says that Iran is still 8 to 10 years away from being able to produce its own nuclear weapon, but with assistance from abroad it could become a nuclear power earlier.’
‘January 1995: The director of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, John Holum, testifies that Iran could have the bomb by 2003.’
‘January 5, 1995: U.S. Defense Secretary William Perry says that Iran may be less than five years from building an atomic bomb, although “how soon …depends how they go about getting it.”‘
‘April 29, 1996: Israeli prime minister Shimon Peres says “he believes that in four years, they [Iran] may reach nuclear weapons.”’
‘October 21, 1998: General Anthony Zinni, head of U.S. Central Command, says Iran could have the capacity to deliver nuclear weapons within five years. ‘If I were a betting man,’ he said, ‘I would say they are on track within five years, they would have the capability.’”
“January 17, 2000: A new CIA assessment on Iran’s nuclear capabilities says that the CIA cannot rule out the possibility that Iran may possess nuclear weapons. The assessment is based on the CIA’s admission that it cannot monitor Iran’s nuclear activities with any precision and hence cannot exclude the prospect that Iran may have nuclear weapons.’
“It goes on for 4 pages like that, with some realistic predictions sprinkled in for good measure. But I think we can all agree that we are severely underestimating Iran’s capability. Just like we have been since 1991, when they were just a year away from a bomb.”
(4) Flashback to 2009
“U.S. now sees Iran as pursuing nuclear bomb“ in the Los Angeles Times, 12 February 2009 — “In a reversal since a 2007 report, U.S. officials expect the Islamic Republic to reach development milestones this year.”
Needless to say, nine years later we have no public evidence of significant development milestones achieved in 2009. Worse, this story was obvious propaganda even when published — as I show with much detail in Iran’s getting the bomb, or so we’re told. Can they fool us twice?
(5) Flashback to 2010 – a rare note of honesty
“Coming Around On Iran” by Mark Hosenball in Newsweek, 15 January 2010 — Excerpt…
“Three U.S. and two foreign counterproliferation officials tell NEWSWEEK that, as soon as next month, the intel agencies are expected to complete an ‘update’ to their controversial 2007 National Intelligence Estimate, which concluded that Tehran ‘halted its nuclear weapons program’ in 2003 and ‘had not restarted’ it as of mid-2007.”
(6) Flash forward to now – about the IAEA’s monitoring of Iran
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitors Iran’s nuclear activities. It is a well-funded and competent surveillance program. Their conclusions are clear, as in this from their 22 February 2018 report.
“The Agency continues to verify the non-diversion of declared nuclear material at the nuclear facilities and locations outside facilities where nuclear material is customarily used (LOFs) declared by Iran under its Safeguards Agreement. Evaluations regarding the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities for Iran remained ongoing. Since Implementation Day, the Agency has been verifying and monitoring the implementation by Iran of its nuclear-related commitments under the JCPOA.”
See their many methods of monitoring Iran. This graphic gives a brief intro. Click to enlarge.
(7) Development of nukes can be accurately predicted
There have been accurate predictions about nuclear weapons programs, if the experts are left alone — and their conclusions heard. Such as this by Winston Churchill to the House of Commons on 7 November 1945. The Soviet Union detonated its first bomb on 29 August 1949.
“How long, we may ask, is it likely that this advantage will rest with the United States? In the Debate on the Address I hazarded the estimate that it would be three or four years. According to the best information I have been able to obtain, I see no reason to alter that estimate, and certainly none to diminish it.” (Hansard website of debates in Parliament.)
(8) Let’s attack North Korea, too
Let’s have cold wars with Russia, China, and Iran – plus several hot wars in the Middle East, and with North Korea! The more the merrier! See “The Legal Case for Striking North Korea First” by John Bolton (Trump’s new National Security Advisor), an op-ed in the WSJ, 28 February 2018.
(9) For more information
If you liked this post, like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. See all posts asking if the US or Israel will attack Iran? (with information about Iran and decades of propaganda to mold our minds), especially these…
• Have Iran’s leaders vowed to destroy Israel? — No, but it’s established as fact by repetition.
• What happens when a nation gets nukes? Sixty years of history suggests an answer.
• What happens if Iran gets nukes? Not what we’ve been told.
(10) Books about the history of nuclear intelligence
Nuclear intelligence has always been politicized. To learn more about this odd history see these books.
1 Red Cloud at Dawn: Truman, Stalin, and the End of the Atomic Monopoly (2009) by Michael D. Gordin (Assc Prof, History at Princeton). See a review at the New York Times.
2 Spying on the Bomb: American Nuclear Intelligence from Nazi Germany to Iran and North Korea by Jeffrey T. Richelson (2006). I recommend this excellent review (essentially a stand-alone analysis): “The Secrets of the Bomb“ by Jeremy Bernstein at the New York Review of Books (2006).
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