India Will Pay a Heavy Price for Hegemony in Indian Ocean Region
Posted on April 19th, 2015
Dilrook Kannangara
When
a Chinese submarine docked in Colombo for supplies, India was
needlessly worried. In retaliation India regime changed the Rajapaksa
administration installing a puppet regime. This follows India applying
the Monroe Doctrine to dominate the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). To assist
in its empire building work, India has bought an outdated Soviet
aircraft carrier, modernising its military, importing weapons in record
numbers and expanding its above surface and below surface military
platforms in the ocean. In addition India is building choke points in
Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and, in Sri Lanka to harass and pressure
Chinese commercial shipping. However, this needless military expansion
is doing India more damage than good.
China
is building a landmark railway link to Europe and Africa which will be
completed in three (3) years. This railway which comprises three
different links will dramatically change trade with Europe. It cuts down
transport time and cost by 55%. It opens up Central Asia which offers
tremendous potential. It will complement China’s sea based Silk Road. As
expansionist India militarises the peaceful Indian Ocean Region with
military ambitions, other countries will join in to spoil it for all.
Which nation will suffer most? India, because it has to totally depend
on the Indian Ocean to get its exports to their destinations and bring
in vital imports including crude oil. China can seamlessly operate.
India’s
two largest state economies are Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu, both
coastal states relying heavily on import and export industries. If the
Indian Ocean Region is militarised which complicates its security
status, these economies will collapse. It may possibly lead to India’s
much anticipated disintegration.
After
years of no real progress Pakistan has found new funding sources to
ensure its security and the security of its vital allies. Iran’s
expanding nuclear energy program has sent chills down the spine of Saudi
leaders. Unable to start its own nuclear weapons program, Saudi relies
on Pakistani nuclear power for defence. Therefore it is in Saudi’s best
interests to ensure Pakistan maintains a strong nuclear deterrent which
can be used to protect Saudi interests too without the nasty effects
that come with it. This is a relationship India fears but is unable to
influence.
Buoyant
by foreign support, Pakistan rapidly expands its nuclear and oceanic
weapons platforms. Large submarine fleet expansion is a key development.
If India wants to play hard ball in the IOR, it must be ready for
competition making this more difficult. With Chinese assistance Pakistan
develops its Gwardar port at the Strategic Strait of Hormuz. Pakistani
oceanic vessels will match Indian vessels forcing India to take on both
Pakistan and China. It is a competition India cannot win.
India
survived for close to 70 long years thanks to unconditional support
from the Soviet Union and Russia. Highly lethal weapons and their world
class technology found their way to India cheaply and at times free. It
was a tremendous boon for a poor nation like India. However, Russia’s
conventional weapons industry has lost its glamour. Now it is nothing
more than ordinary and certainly not world class. China has rapidly
caught on. To face this expanding deficiency, India has to rely on
western weapons which are at least ten times more expensive than Russian
weapons. Unlike generous Russia, India is not getting technology
transfer from western nations.
India’s
gradual rapprochement with the west has Russia doubting Indian
intentions. As a result Russia is now reaching out to Pakistan and China
which it shunned until now due to Indian requests.
Panic
is taking its toll on India. Its panicky decisions make it worse for
India. Out of panic India installed a puppet regime in Sri Lanka, tries
to interfere in Nepal, Maldives and Myanmar. Unknown to Indian think
tanks, this is driving more and more nations against it. Other powerful
Asian nations with commercial interests in mind are now forced to look
at the military option to contain India.
Indian
interference in Vietnam against China is causing it more harm than
good. Tit for tat manoeuvres against China will not take India anywhere
as its economy is barely one fourth of China’s.
Indian
policy makers must realise panic driven strategies and hegemony make
more enemies and no friends. Inevitable disintegration of India is a
certainty which can be averted only by focusing on its poor which is the
world’s largest. Playing second fiddle to USA is not going to save
India as Pakistan learn the hard way in its war against India.
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