Simon TisdallSat 21 Mar 2020 10.05 EDT
Displaying the sort of unthinking bellicosity that has characterised his tenure as US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo chose last week – a time of unprecedented global turmoil – to impose yet more unilateral sanctions on Iran. This was akin to pouring petrol on a burning building, then waiting to see how big an explosion ensues.
The timing of the new measures was doubly inept. Iran’s freeing of thousands of political prisoners last week raised hopes of full pardons for jailed US citizens and the British-Iranian dual national Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, who has been temporarily released.
Those hopes have receded now. Meanwhile,Pompeo’s heedless intervention risked fuelling calls inside Iran to abandon not only the creaking 2015 nuclear deal but also the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT)– the cornerstone since 1970 of international efforts to curb the spread of nuclear weapons.
Iran’s leadership is under pressure from conservative hardliners after the latter’s recent election successes. This latest manifestation of Washington’s unremitting hostility may help push them over the brink. Thanks mainly to Donald Trump and his sidekick, Tehran could soon move a crucial step closer to going nuclear – the very outcome the Americans most fear.
There is little reason to feel sympathy for Iran’s political and religious bosses and their incompetent, corrupt and abusive regime. The country’s present government has proved it is not fit to govern. But its long-suffering people are a different matter. They deserve better of both their leaders and the Trump administration.
Pompeo said the new measures, targeting individuals and businesses allegedly engaged in circumventing the US oil embargo, showed Washington’s determination to maintain its “maximum pressure” campaign, begun in 2018 after Trump torpedoed the nuclear deal.
Yet the move could hardly have been more provocative, or more cruel. Iranians have endured many months of intensifying hardship as US sanctions have shrunk the economy, destroyed jobs and depressed living standards. They have been badly hit by the coronavirus, which the health ministry has said is killing one person every 10 minutes.
Callous US disregard for Iran’s Covid-19 emergency – it is effectively blocking bilateral medical aid and a request for a $5bn loan from the International Monetary Fund – suggests that Washington is not interested in confidence-building measures. “The Wuhan virus is a killer and the Iranian regime is an accomplice,” Pompeo snarled.
His animosity dashed hopes the health crisis could encourage a rapprochement of sorts. And clashes this month between US forces and pro-Iran militia in Iraq were a reminder of how the stand-off could easily go the other way.
Trump’s campaign of coercion and ostracism has failed disastrously
Washington is at odds with European allies, who deplore its dangerous brinkmanship. Britain is quietly urging an easing of sanctions. It is also reluctant to pursue Iran for breaching the 2015 deal, believing that a reimposition of UN sanctions could tip Tehran over the nuclear precipice.
The US, then, is in a hole and should stop digging. Trump’s campaign of coercion and ostracism has failed disastrously. His three-pronged aim was to ensure Iran could never acquire a nuclear weapon, to curb its ballistic missile capabilities, and to halt its “destabilising regional behaviour”. It has backfired on all fronts.
The UN’s nuclear watchdog,the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), reports Iran now has more than 1,000kg of enriched uranium, enough to make a single nuclear weapon if it so chose. As experts predicted, it has expanded production in direct response to Trump’s aggression.
Its back against the wall, Iran has continued to develop missile, drone and satellite guidance programmes capable of hitting Israel and US bases in the Middle East. These capabilities were on show when it struck US forces in Iraq in retaliation for Trump’s illegal assassination in January of a top general, Qassem Suleimani.
Regrettably Iran has shown no sign of changing its regional strategy. Its proxies remain actively engaged in the Syrian war. Its influence in Lebanon and Iraq remains strong, despite popular resentment in both countries.
Yet analysts say desperation in Tehran, coupled with deep anger over US policy and Europe’s inability to mitigate it, is so pervasive that the regime may soon decide to raise the stakes by quitting the NPT to increase its leverage, even at the risk of US and Israeli military retaliation.
“The mainstream view in Iran until recently was that withdrawing from the NPT would bring further diplomatic isolation, lead to increased sanctions, and court a US military strike … Therefore, it would be counterproductive to Tehran’s larger aspirations of regional leadership and reintegration into the international community,” wrote Mahsa Rouhi of London’s International Institute for Strategic Studies.
“But recent events have caused Tehran to re-evaluate those ambitions, as they seem increasingly far-fetched. In the past year, the prospect of withdrawing from the NPT has transformed from a fringe idea among hardliners in Iran into a real policy option.”
Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s foreign minister, warned recently that if the UN security council reimposed sanctions, as urged by the US, Iran would renounce both the nuclear deal and the NPT. Faced by an economy that shrank by 9.5% last year, violent anti-regime protests, unrelenting international isolation and a lethal public health emergency,many in Tehran calculate Iran has little left to lose.
That’s not true, of course – and Iran would be wise to hold back. At present, the regime is not actively seeking to acquire nuclear weapons, and it claims it never has. But few will believe it if it defies the IAEA’s inspectors, breaks loose of remaining nuclear constraints, and continues to stockpile enriched uranium.
Trump, seeking re-election at any cost, and Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s beleaguered prime minister, may just be desperate or stupid enough to start bombing. Iranians may believe things cannot get any worse. But they could.
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