The Ten Nuclear Horns (Daniel 7)

Analysis: US, Sunni states talk about regional ‘nuclear umbrella’

The Jerusalem Post

Coinciding with the snap visit of US Secretary of State John Kerry to Saudi Arabia this week, the US military is considering deploying one of its THAAD defense systems in the region.

Both moves are intended to lessen concerns expressed in the Gulf countries about Iran’s nuclear program and its increasing interventions in conflicts across the Middle East. Tehran’s direct and indirect involvement by its Shi’ite proxies is evident in Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon and Syria.
THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) is an American anti-ballistic missile system. It is designed to intercept and “kill” medium- and long-range incoming ballistic missiles, including those which are carrying nuclear warheads.

In a sense, the idea to deploy THAAD in order to defend the Gulf emirates and Saudi Arabia from Iran practically means to offer them a “nuclear umbrella.”

It is also intended to minimize the chance that they would rush to develop nuclear weapons as an ultimate shield against Iran. One of the fears of the international community – Israel included – is that a nuclear Iran will trigger a nuclear race in the Middle East.

In the past, after concluding one of his negotiation rounds with his Iranian counterpart, Kerry would also travel to inform the Israeli prime minister of the situation. But this time he skipped the Jewish state, signaling the Obama administration’s anger with Benjamin Netanyahu’s collusion with the Republican Congress this week.

Over the years, some US administrations entertained the notion of signing a defense treaty with Israel, which would also place Israel under the US nuclear umbrella. But the idea, which was favored by prime minister David Ben-Gurion, was never seriously deliberated.

Eventually, according to foreign reports, it was Ben-Gurion who made the decision to make Israel a nuclear power and thus rely on its own nuclear umbrella.

Thirty years later, Israel, in a joint venture with the US, developed, produced and deployed its own equivalent to THAAD – the Arrow 2 and soon Arrow 3 anti-ballistic systems that are supposed to intercept and shoot long-range Iranian missiles with conventional, and in case it might have them in the future, nuclear warheads.

The possible of a regional nuclear arms race, remote as it may be seen at the moment, is especially worrisome when it comes to Saudi Arabia.

The kingdom has special strategic relations with Pakistan, which has nuclear weapons.

In the past, it was reported – though never officially confirmed – that Saudi Arabia partially financed Pakistan’s nuclear program. According to these reports, Pakistan in return promised to sell or deploy some of its nuclear bombs to Saudi Arabia should the regime of the House of Saud fear for the survival of the monarchy.

The idea to send THAAD to the Middle East, as well as to the Korean Peninsula, was raised on Wednesday by Gen. Vincent Brooks, head of US Army Pacific Command, who emphasized that no decision had been yet made. But, he added, “the need is there in those two places.”

The US Army has four operational THAAD batteries, and a fifth one is scheduled to undergo tests and training this year.

The United Arab Emirates already bought one THAAD system from manufacturer Martin Lockheed in 2011 for nearly $2 billion, but it will take more than a year until it will be fully operational.

The company hopes to sign two more such deals with Qatar and Saudi Arabia in the near future.

During his meetings with the local leaders, Kerry tried to assure them that the US is fully committed to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons.

“Nothing will be different the day after this agreement, if we reach one, with respect to any other issues that challenge us in this region, except we will have taken steps to guarantee that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon,” Kerry told reporters.

Pakistan Government Protected By Its Nuclear Status

Pakistani generals will continue using proxies under their nuclear umbrella

December 24, 2014, 4:04 AM IST Seema Sirohi in Letter from Washington | Times View, World

The generals in their labyrinth know they are under watch after the Peshawar tragedy. The slaughter of 132 innocent Pakistani children and 13 others by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, or the TTP, demands both answers and action.

There is brave talk. There are a few honest appraisals. The politicians are making the right noises. A few voices even started #AskGHQ as a Twitter hashtag to challenge the generals who created the mess. All respect to those Pakistanis who still dare to stand up and those killed because they did.
But the questioning and the soul searching are largely in the English press where the slim slice of liberals resides. The Urdu media is another world altogether. Those who monitor that wild, wild world see a dystopia. The blame is either on the TTP without a mention of other terrorist proxies run by the military-ISI or simply on Indian intelligence agents. Many, including former president Pervez Musharraf, have shamelessly named India’s external intelligence agency, RAW.

The well-oiled disinformation machinery was at work before the bodies of little children were even buried. Hafiz Saeed, the “mainstreamed” terrorist now posing as a religious leader, was out blaming India for the attack and vowing revenge. America, India and Israel were named as places for Allah’s wrath as Pakistan’s parade of jihadists met for a “memorial” service.

The truth is the generals will do what they have always done — continue using proxies under their nuclear umbrella to keep the world perpetually scared of their potential madness. They will satisfy the blood lust with mass-scale executions of convicted terrorists — none of whom would include men who attacked in India or Afghanistan.

Six men have already been hanged for attacks on the Pakistan army and 500 more reportedly are to follow. The prime-minister-in-name, Nawaz Sharif, helpfully lifted the moratorium on executions in the wake of the Peshawar attack.

But only the “bad” Taliban or TTP will be hunted for their sins because they dared to take on the state. The “good” Taliban, who kill Afghans and Indians, will be used as pieces in the lethal chess game of 2015. The same goes for the “good” Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad, Jamatud-Dawah, Haqqani Network and the rest of the dangerous zoo reared by the succession of generals.

You may think the Peshawar attack would have punctured Gen. Raheel Sharif’s bubble but you would be wrong. If anything, he will proceed as planned — push the Afghan government on the west and the Indian government on the east by maintaining the snake pit of “good” terrorists he controls.

The bigger picture emerging explains the Pakistan army chief’s swagger who apparently took home American blessings from his US visit. Senior Pakistani officials were heard bragging about the visit’s success and how Sharif told his US interlocutors a thing or two. A new addition to the army’s platoon in the US would be Maleeha Lodhi as Pakistan’s ambassador to the United Nations in New York. She is not Nawaz Sharif’s but Raheel Sharif’s choice.

The Paksitan army knows American subsidies will continue to come even if the terrorist mart remains open because the United States cannot “muster the requisite scrotal fortitude to deal appropriately with this twinned menace of nuclear weapons and terrorism,” as Pakistan expert Christine Fair wrote recently.

America’s inducements multiply the swagger. And surely Musharraf is the most insufferable of the lot. He told the BBC’s Impact programme that “we have our own ways of dealing with Afghanistan” and “you should leave the modalities to us” instead of micromanaging. The puffed up arrogance of the man was breathtaking.

Since the US combat mission in Afghanistan is ending, the time for the grab is near. By waiting out the Americans — whose perpetually confused policies on Afghanistan didn’t help — the Pakistan army is all set to try to force “strategic depth.”

So the Afghans must make a deal with men who kill their children, their soldiers and constantly threaten the country’s security. And pay obeisance to the likes of Musharraf. Nawaz Sharif’s foreign policy adviser and lately the dropper of “gems,” Sartaj Aziz, has said Taliban are Pakistan’s “historical friends.”

As for India, an uptick in activity among jihadists in the region is already being noticed. Those at the bottom rung of the chain are displaying some of the swagger of their bosses — always a worrying sign.

DISCLAIMER : Views expressed above are the author’s own.