Very likely directed by Iran, Iranian proxies on Wednesday launched a rocket attack on a U.S. base northwest of Baghdad. Two Americans and one British service member were killed.
This incident signifies two things. First, thatIran remains determined to exact new costs on America over its killing of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani in early January. Second, that Iran is increasingly unrestrained in its foreign security policy.Retaliating against Iran’s proxies, U.S. and perhaps also British fighter jets struck bases in eastern Syria, killing around 20 fighters.
We shouldn’t view this as a one-off, short, sharp exchange.
While Iran remains determined to spill American blood over the killing of Soleimani, that agenda fits within a broader portfolio of Iranian actions designed to undermine international security.
Now led by Soleimani’s protégé,Esmail Ghaani, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’s Quds Force has found new operational latitude from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.Personally grieving over Soleimani’s fate and facing what he views as a U.S. regime-change policy, Khamenei is increasingly willing to test President Trump’s red lines against attacks on U.S. citizens. To be clear, Khamenei knows that if he continues on this course of action, the U.S. may target Ghaani as it did Soleimani. He’s willing to take that risk.
While Iraqi popular opinion is manifestly opposed to foreign interference, these latest attacks show Iran is increasingly confident about its political position in Baghdad. Iran has successfully forced the withdrawal of reform-minded prime ministerial nominee Mohammed Allawi, and at least for the moment, has earned the support of top power broker Muqtada al Sadr. But these rocket attacks should also be seen as a veiled warning to Iraqi President Barham Salih against appointing Iraqi National Intelligence Service Director Mustafa al Kadhimi as the new prime minister. Iran despises al Kadhimi because he and his agency oppose Iran’s use of Iraq as an imperial sectarian playground. It wants everyone to know that al Kadhimi’s premiership will lead to new chaos.
Iran’s escalation also takes another form. Iran is now more resolute in expanding its nuclear program. Again, Iran knows that doing so risks Israeli or U.S. military action. But Khamenei has evidently decided to roll the dice in a last-ditch effort to blackmail America into sanctions relief. The supreme leader’s escalation-reflex is likely exacerbated in an Iranian interest point of view by the Saudi decision this week to boost its oil export scale and send oil prices plummeting. U.S. sanctions have annihilated Iran’s oil economy, so what little Tehran is still able to export is critical to the regime’s finances.
Where does this leave us?
Well, with the high probability of new and escalating Iranian aggression in the days ahead.
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