by Editorial , (Last Updated 22 hours ago)
• Time to cool things down
The Washington-based Wilson Centre’s Deputy Director Asia Program, Michael Kugelman, has said that there is a good chance of war between India and Pakistan, when speaking on a private TV channel’s talk show on Saturday. When asked about his article in December predicting this, he said that war was not a certainty, but stood firmly by his opinion that war could happen, because India was being unusually belligerent. This danger is enhanced by the fact that India’s Prime Minister is making bellicose noises, and is being echoed by the Army and Naval Chiefs (the Air Chief presumably silent because of the bloody nose his service got last year, when two planes were shot down, and a pilot captured).
The problem seems to be the fact that such anti-Pakistan rhetoric has worked in the past. Last year’s Pulwama incident came just before the general election, and Narendra Modi’s strong actions thereafter are credited with helping his re-election. Mr Kugelman said that the revocation of Kashmir’s special status and the passage of the Citizenship Amendment Act had provoked the kind of backlash that could lead Modi to belligerence, adding that he was worried by a possible false-flag operation which would let India provoke a war.
With the BJP losing the Delhi Assembly elections yet again, unless there are any premature dissolutions, Bihar is the only Indian state going to the polls this year. It has always been ruled by other than the BJP, but it is a Cow Belt state where it is eager to win. However, before ratcheting up his rhetoric, Modi should consider the lessons of the Delhi election. It seems that anti-Muslim deeds, such as in Kashmir and the CAA, have not helped. Mr Modi should also remember that, once used, military means can take on a life of their own. One scenario is that an Indian false-flag provokes a Pakistani response, which India tries to meet be committing more resources.
That is horrific enough a scenario, but it should never be forgotten that both India and Pakistan are nuclear powers. Neither should ever step on the escalatory ladder which ends in a nuclear exchange that could very well obliterate civilisation as we know it, not just from the region, but the entire world.
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