Fox News Poll: Clinton ahead of Trump after debate, fear motivating both sides
Hillary Clinton has gained ground on Donald Trump, who has slipped in key measures of the presidential race after the first debate.
First, the horserace. Clinton is ahead of Trump by three percentage points: 43-40 percent in the four-way matchup, according to a new Fox News Poll of likely voters. Her advantage is within the poll’s margin of sampling error. Two weeks ago, Clinton was up by one (41-40 percent).
Third-party candidates Gary Johnson (8 percent) and Jill Stein (4 percent) remain in single digits.
In the two-candidate head-to-head, Clinton tops Trump by five: 49-44 percent. Two weeks ago, Trump was up by one (46-45 percent).
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The consequences of the debate, which voters score as a win for Clinton by nearly three-to-one, are even clearer on other measures. Trump’s honesty rating is down, most still say he doesn’t have the right temperament, and over half wouldn’t be comfortable with him as president.
Meanwhile, more voters now see Clinton as honest than Trump, the number who say she has the right temperament is up, and over half think her long tenure in government is a positive. Plus, her support increased among women, non-whites, and younger voters.
The poll was conducted Tuesday through Thursday, so all interviews were done after Monday night’s debate.
Trump is preferred among men (+17 points), whites (+21), and independents (+12). He’s narrowly ahead among whites with a college degree (+4 points), and has a wide lead among whites without a degree (+35 points).
Clinton leads among women (+20 points), non-whites (+66), and voters under age 45 (+8). She gained with each of those groups since the debate. Compared to two weeks ago, her advantage among women increased by 7 points, by 15 points among non-whites, and 8 among voters under age 45 (the candidates were tied in mid-September).
The candidates receive about equal backing from their party faithful: 83 percent of Democrats back Clinton vs. 81 percent of Republicans for Trump.
Independents favor Trump over Clinton by 41-29 percent, and 21 percent back Johnson.
Clinton’s backers (69 percent) are a bit more likely than Trump’s (64 percent) to say they “strongly” support their candidate.
What’s motivating voters? Fifty-seven percent say fear that the other candidate might win is behind their choice. For 39 percent, it’s enthusiasm for their candidate.
Trump’s supporters (60 percent) are more likely than Clinton’s (52 percent) to be motivated by the fear factor. This could help Trump. “Research shows fear is the most powerful emotion when it comes to turnout,” notes Republican pollster Daron Shaw. “Hope and anger also cause higher turnout, but fear really gets people to the polls.” Shaw conducts the Fox News Poll with Democratic counterpart Chris Anderson.
The big challenge for Trump: just 43 percent of likely voters would be at ease with him as president, while 50 percent would be comfortable with Clinton.
Indeed, nearly half say they would be “not at all” comfortable with Trump in the White House (47 percent).
That’s unsurprising given 59 percent feel the real estate mogul lacks the temperament to serve effectively as president. By comparison, 67 percent say Clinton has the right temperament -- a notable improvement from 59 percent before the debate.
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