Dirty bomb: Just how worried should we be as ISIS seeks ultimate threat?
By Matthew Moran and Christopher Hobbs
Updated 10:44 AM ET, Tue June 16, 2015
Unsurprisingly, the prospect of ISIS
dabbling with unconventional weapons has been greeted with considerable
concern. The Iraqi government has appealed to the United Nations for
international help to “stave off the threat” in this regard and
Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop recently acknowledged that NATO
countries are deeply concerned by the situation.
But what can ISIS actually do with these newly acquired radioactive materials? What is the nature of the threat?
First off, it is important to emphasize
that radioactive sources of the type acquired by ISIS cannot be used to
create a nuclear bomb. These sources are mostly used for medical
research and treatments such as radiotherapy, and are completely
unsuited to the development of nuclear weapons.
This said, the harmful effects of these
sources, stemming from their chemical toxicity and radioactive
properties, can be exploited in other ways. If inhaled or ingested, for
example, these materials can be lethal. This was evidenced by the
poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko in 2006, when just a fraction of a gram of radioactive polonium proved enough to kill the former KGB officer.
Fortunately, achieving this type of
internal exposure on a large scale would prove enormously challenging
for a terrorist group. Consequently, attention has focused on the use of
these materials by ISIS in a dirty bomb.
Combining
radioactive materials with conventional explosives, this is a bomb with
an edge. A dirty bomb would spread radioactive materials, contaminating
the local area and any individuals in the nearby vicinity.
Crucially, however, this contamination would be mostly external in
nature and, if the attack was promptly identified as being radioactive,
decontamination of individuals would be a relatively straightforward
process. The exposure time of anyone affected would be limited and the
negative health effects mitigated.
Indeed, with a dirty bomb, members of the
public are more likely to be harmed by the impact of the conventional
explosives than that of the radioactive materials.
This point was borne out by a series of
tests conducted over a four-year period by the Israeli Defence Forces
(IDF) in the Negev Desert. As part of this project – details of which
were recently published
by Haaretz — some 20 devices laced with radioactive materials were
detonated and their effects observed. The IDF concluded that a dirty
bomb attack poses little physical danger beyond the conventional blast.
From a psychological perspective, for
example, nuclear weapons are associated with death and destruction on an
enormous scale, and dirty bombs benefit from association with these
more sophisticated weapons simply because they incorporate radioactive
materials.
There is an important distinction to be
made between nuclear and radiological materials but this is often lost
in media reports and commentary on these issues. In any case, a dirty
bomb detonated in a major urban center would be sure to cause widespread
fear and panic.
Ultimately, while the thought of ISIS
using dirty bombs to further its terrorist agenda is unsettling, the
threat should not be exaggerated, particularly when it comes to its
impact on public health. These are not the nuclear weapons that ISIS supposedly desires, and will do nothing to further the group’s ambitions in this regard.
