The prophecy is more than seeing into the future. For the prophecy sees without the element of time. For the prophecy sees things as they were, as they are, and as they always shall be.
Supporters of Shia cleric
Muqtada al-Sadr burn a US flag during a protest demanding the
government prevent the entry of U.S. troops into Iraq at Al-Tahrir
Square in Baghdad, September 20, 2014.REUTERS/Ahmed Saad
While he opposed the Baathist regime, his rise to prominence came
with his resistance to the Anglo-American occupation after 2003,
founding a militia known as the Mahdi Army, which was involved in the
post-invasion insurgency, and accused of sectarian violence. Being able
to count on both large popular support and a powerful military force, he soon became one of Iraq’s leading political and religious figures.
Sadr’s stance with regards to Iraqi politics has been rather
ambiguous, leading some to describe him as “a hybrid of
anti-establishment positions while being part of the establishment
himself.” His involvement in the country’s public life has seen him make
moves and take positions which are sometimes in contrast with the Shia
ruling majority’s orientations. He is a steadfast opponent of sectarian politics,
although some members of his bloc, the Sadrist Movement, have held, and
continue to hold, positions in governments based on quota-sharing.
A common thread since 2003 has been the opposition to foreign
interference in Iraq, regardless whether it comes from the West (US, UK)
or the East (Iran). His disenchantment as to the possibility of
pursuing an alternative to sectarian politics was one of the reasons
that led him to suddenly announce his withdrawal from political life in
2014, as one of his movement’s officials stated.
Since then, things have evolved in Iraq. The rise of Islamic State
(Isis) in which sectarian politics undoubtedly played a role has posed a
serious threat to the stability of the country, exacerbated by the
political tensions of Maliki’s government at the time. Despite enormous
difficulties (the constant threat of extremism, the recent fall of oil
prices), his successor Haidar al-Abadi has managed to keep the country
afloat as the Hashd al-Shaabi (PMU) and the Security Forces have
regained territory from Daesh.
Abadi has been able to ease tensions with the Kurdistan Regional
Government (KRG), to take some anti-corruption measures, and to purge
the army of inefficient officials. Some issues which have taken root in
Iraq have not yet been entirely solved, such as poor public services,
corruption, lack of transparency, and sectarianism.
These are the plagues that Sadr has vowed to fight against, on the
base of a populist vision of national unity in which religiosity and
patriotism are often conflated, as the slogan “Love for one’s country is
part of the faith” suggests. The Shia leader supported Abadi’s pledge
to carry out a government reshuffle, aimed at installing a technocratic
cabinet, as well as to fight corruption, restore services, and implement
public accountability.
Looking at the causes that may have led Sadr to such a steadfast
return to public life, it has been suggested that he hopes to prevent
other Shia groups from asserting their influence in the country, on both
a political and a military level. After a government reshuffle was
proposed, factions have been in disagreement over how this is to be
done: while one side prefers the ministries to be chosen by political
parties, another side, led by Sadr, asserts that parties should not
interfere. Sadr has also threatened the current government with a vote of no-confidence if no agreement is reached within 45 days. It
is also worth noting that Sadr does not oppose Abadi, but he thinks he
should take the chance to promote reforms before it’s too late.
How is Sadr’s comeback to be evaluated? This week, the third
demonstration led by the Shia leaexpected to be held, which threatens to
storm the Green Zone in the Iraqi capital. There are mixed feelings in
the Iraqi street regarding Sadr’s role. Some support his push for
change, frustrated at Abadi government’s poor performance in terms of
reforms.
Others, however, are afraid that if a breach in security occurs
during the protests, it will undermine the rule of law and set a
precedent that Sadr is taking the law into his own hands. This is why
some of the Green Zone residents have allegedly left the area lest the
situation gets out of control.
Despite being characterised by some clearly populist motifs, Sadr’s
pledge to fight against corruption and for the sake of the most
vulnerable classes of Iraqi society can function as an incentive for the
large-scale reforms proposed by Abadi. At the same time, though, Sadr’s
uncompromising stances may lead to political stalemate in a country
that still needs to recapture the remaining areas under Daesh control.
His call for a more transparent and efficient administration, then,
can be beneficial as long as his long-term vision does not hinder the
current government’s activity, given the delicate stage the country is
going through.
Stefano Freyr Castiglione is an Arab media analyst at Integrity UK