Russia vs. USA: Is Putin Ready For A Nuclear War?
Posted By: Polina TikhonovaPosted date: May 08, 2015 07:50:01
Posted By: Polina TikhonovaPosted date: May 08, 2015 07:50:01
As
NATO tickles the Kremlin’s nerves by launching military drills on
Russia’s doorstep, and the Kremlin, for its part, is preparing for the
World War 2 victory celebrations on May 9, military analysts are evaluating the risks of a possible war between Russia and the West.
Russia
has recently made the moves that can be interpreted as ‘threatening’ to
the United States. Russia’s leadership has initiated a process to
modernize all of its warheads as well as launch systems.
According to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists report, Russia is posed to upgraded all of its strategic as well as nonstrategic nuclear weapons, which is a total of 4,500 warheads.
The
Kremlin’s nuclear update process also includes the replacement of
Soviet-era intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) with new rocket launch systems and the developments of a cutting-edge deadly Borei-class ballistic missile submarine.
It
will take Russia approximately ten years to upgrade two of its older
ballistic missile submarine classes to the newly updated Borei class,
which is likely to feature advanced electronics as well as other
developments.
However, the US is not pulling up the rear. The
US is also set to upgrade its nuclear forces and launch platforms in an
aim to turn its arsenal into a more intimidating machine without the need to manufacture new warheads.
It
is estimated by the Congressional Budget Office that over the coming
decade, the US’s nuclear plans will involve about $348 billion total.
Although, with the rising threat from Russia’s side, the number might
double or triple.
Tensions between NATO and Russia grow
The news come as NATO has recently ordered its forces to flex muscles on Russia’s doorstep by launching large-scale military drills,
which will include thousands of troops and are taking place in Estonia,
Lithuania (both the Baltic states) and Norway. The operation, which is
codenamed Dynamic Mongoose, involves forces from the United States,
Britain, Germany, Latvia, Poland and Sweden.
The military drills were launched on Monday and are expected to last for two weeks.
Will
Russia, with its 2,000 units of military hardware and about 80,000
troops participating in the massive World War 2 victory parade May 9 in
Moscow’s Red Square, be tempted to respond to such “threatening to
Russian sovereignty” and “downplaying the Russia’s role in the world”
moves?
ValueWalk
asked this question one of the experts of ‘Voennaya Analitika’ analytic
center, Ivan Shevchenko, who has also participated in the military
operation against pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine.
“As
difficult as it might be for Russia to resist the temptation, I don’t
believe Putin is ready to initiate an all-out war against Ukraine or any
other neighboring state on May 9. In my opinion, Putin prefers doing
everything gradually, as if he is hesitating at every step or thinking
every step through – that is Putin’s tactic. And he’s good at it,”
Shevchenko expressed his opinion.
While
most of the Western – and not just Western – countries declined Putin’s
invitation to take part in the World War 2 victory celebration in
Moscow, it will include Cuba, the only American state to take part in
the event, Brazil, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Iceland, Macedonia,
Montenegro, Serbia, Norway, all former Soviet states in the Asia-Eurasia
region, and some other countries.
“The
leaders who will be with Putin on the reviewing stand will not be mere
guests,” wrote the opposition magazine The New Times. “For Russians it
will be a map of the world which is able to confront American diktat.”
Shevchenko
believes that while attending the parade, the countries that will be
attending it are likely to gather for a group meeting in order to
discuss “a possible cooperation plan against the US.”
“What
we’ve seen during the past half a year is that Russia is not relying on
its pro-Russian rebels as much as it relies on its diplomatic actions
to destabilize the situation in Ukraine, the EU, and as a result, with
the ‘domino effect’, in the US,” Shevchenko said.
In
Shevchenko’s opinion, a nuclear war between Russia and the US is not
something that ‘will definitely happen’, but rather something that a few
years ago was impossible but now turned out to be ‘possible’.
“When
Western people look at Russia now, they see Putin all over it. Today,
Putin is in every inch of Russia’s essence, and what he believes to be
the next ‘right’ move, he will do it. And the world will have to deal
with the consequences of one man’s doings. That, of course, if the West
doesn’t stop him with non-military means, or military means for that
matter, until it’s too late,” Shevchenko said.
However,
according to Russia’s most influential foreign policy expert, Fyodor
Lukyanov, Russia is not interested in annexing any more countries or
testing NATO’s Article V, which means that all member-states would come
to the aid of an attacked ally.
When
Max Fisher, the foreign editor at Vox, asked Lukyanov about the
possibility of “dangerous misunderstandings,” he said that the big conflict “might happen,” adding that “one step, another step, and reciprocity can become very dangerous.”
Lukyanov
also stated that “Russia feels very vulnerable, although maybe a little
bit less since the improvement of conventional forces.” And according
to him, it is widely believed that the only guarantee for Russian
security, sovereignty and existence is the nuclear deterrent.
The
interview was concluded with Lukyanov saying that “in general” he
doesn’t think Russian people “are in the mood of launching a war.”
“Rather,
the perception is that somebody would try to undermine Russia as a
country that opposes the United States, and then we will need to defend
ourselves by military means.”
May
9 is near, and the question is: will Russia find “the need” to defend
itself on this occasion? Will Putin view the absence of most of the
world’s leaders at the parade as a ‘fascism encouraging’ action?
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