Clear and present danger
The Indian media has missed out on analysing a recent incident at the Karachi naval dockyard. On the night of September 6, half a dozen serving and retired Pakistan Navy (PN) personnel, led by an officer, entered the Karachi naval dockyard in a boat and attempted to take over the 3,000-tonne Chinese-built frigate, PNS Zulfiqar, when the warship was in the harbour. They killed a petty officer and wounded six PN personnel on board the warship before this brazen attack was foiled. Some of the attackers were killed and interrogation of one of the captured attackers resulted in the subsequent arrest of 17 more conspirators.
Media reports speculated that the attackers wanted to hijack PNS Zulfiqar, take it to sea and use its eight 180-km range anti-ship missiles to attack an American aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea. This was also stated later by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) spokesman on September 10, while claiming responsibility for the attack. Another media report said that the attackers had entered the dockyard with the aim of attacking a US Navy aircraft carrier, but mistakenly attacked PNS Zulfiqar as it was the first warship they saw.
In my view, both these theories are incorrect, as it is almost impossible for six men to hijack and sail out with a 3,000-tonne warship manned by over 200 men, and no serving or retired Pakistan Navy officer would mistake a 100,000-tonne American aircraft carrier for a 3,000-tonne frigate. In my view, the hijackers were probably after nuclear weapons. In 2012, the PN announced the creation of a “Strategic Naval Command” to be headed by a vice-admiral. Media reports indicated that, in 2011, Pakistan had commenced work on a miniaturised two-kilo tonne plutonium warhead, ba-sed on a Chinese design tested in 1991-92. It was to be deployed by the Pak-istan Army on the new 60-km range battlefield ballistic missile Nasr.
This new, low-yield tactical nuclear weapon (TNW) was also meant to be deployed on the 700-km range land attack cruise missile (LACM) Babur, and the 350-km range air launched cruise missile (ALCM) R’aad. On December 19 and 21, 2012, the PNS Zulfiqar successfully test-fired LACMs at sea. While it was not known whether the missile fired was the Babur or a version of the 120 to 180-km range Chinese C-802 anti-ship missile modified to become an LACM carrying a two-kilotonne miniaturised nuclear warhead, the fact is that the test firings were witnessed by then Pakistan Navy chief, Admiral Mohammad Asif Sandila, and the media reported that the PN had now got a sea-based nuclear deterrent which could threaten Indian coastal cities.
The PN will soon begin to induct six Chinese-built Qing-class conventional submarines capable of firing nuclear tipped LACMs on Indian coastal cities. The jihadis in Pakistan have apparently set their eyes on “grabbing” some nuclear weapons. On August 16, 2012, six terrorists in Pakistan Air Force (PAF) uniforms infiltrated and attacked the high security Pakistan Aeronautical Complex at Kamra (45 miles northwest of Islamabad), which houses not only the plant to build new JF-17 fighter jets but also some of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. This was the third terrorist attack on this facility (the earlier attacks were in December 2007 and August 2009).
On the night of May 23, 2011, terrorists belonging to the TTP infiltrated and attacked the PN air station (PNS Mehran) in Karachi. The 15 attackers killed 18 military personnel and injured another 16, and destroyed two of the seven America-supplied P-3C Orion long range maritime patrol (LRMP) aircraft. These can fly for 15 hours and destroy enemy ships and oil rigs with the America supplied Harpoon anti-ship missiles which have a range of 130 km. Sooner or later, the terrorists will discover that rather than attack Pakistani military facilities to acquire nuclear weapons, it is simpler to have enough radicalised elements in Pakistan’s military who can be trained and then transferred to units storing and operating nuclear weapons. These “sleeper cells” can be activated for strikes at the opportune moment.
Pakistan Army needs to take the possibility and threat of jihadi sleeper cell in its military seriously. It needs to place the nuclear button firmly under the control of the Prime Minister. Its homegrown terrorists won’t hesitate to use a stolen nuclear weapon or a conventional weapon.
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