The merits of going nuclear with China Chinese President Xi Jingping’s visit to India on the eve of Modi’s trip to the US is likely to impact not only India-US ties but also the evolving global order
Read more at: http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/hTiSwP3bSTrhIKJvbh0r2I/The-merits-of-going-nuclear-with-China.html?utm_source=copy
The maiden visit of
Chinese President Xi Jingping to India this week, following close on the
heels of Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbot’s visit to India and
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Japan, has raised expectations
of a breakthrough in China-India bilateral relations and the potential
for major realignment among Asian powers. Xi’s visit on the eve of
Modi’s trip to the US is likely to impact not only India-US relations
but also the evolving global order.
Civil nuclear cooperation is a crucial component in three of the
four above-mentioned bilateral relations—evident in the 2008 US-India
agreement, the recently inked Australia-India agreement, and the failed
attempt to secure a similar deal with Japan. The exception is China.
Although the joint statement following the visit of Chinese Premier Li
Keqiang in May 2013 noted that “India and China believe that expansion
of civil nuclear energy program is an essential component of their
national energy plans to ensure energy security” and that the “two sides
will carry out bilateral cooperation in civil nuclear energy in line
with their respective international commitments” the Asian neighbours have not embarked on any serious civil nuclear cooperation discussions.
On the face of it China-India civil nuclear cooperation is a
non-starter. China and India are nuclear-armed rivals with one of the
longest disputed and undemarcated borders. China’s inputs into
Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme and their growing military
cooperation is also a bone of contention. Similarly, Beijing’s lack of
support for New Delhi’s aspiration to permanently join the United
Nations Security Council (UNSC) as well as China’s blocking of India’s
membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) are cooperation
stoppers. In fact, it was a Chinese-led UNSC resolution that castigated
India (along with Pakistan) for its 1998 nuclear tests and nuclear
weapons programme.
Yet, there are some merits in going nuclear with China. Consider the following:
China today has one of
the most ambitious civil nuclear energy programmes and is building 28 to
30 reactors domestically—more than any other country. The sheer
number of reactors will provide China with competitive economies of
scale. Apart from Pakistan, where China is building up to five nuclear
power reactors (much to the chagrin of India), Chinese companies will
also invest, design and build two nuclear power reactors in Britain.
China has also signed nuclear cooperation deals with Argentina
(currently chair of the NSG) and Romania.
Moreover, China’s State Nuclear Power Technology Corporation
jointly developed a 1400-1500 MWe pressurised water reactor with
Westinghouse (owned by Japan’s Toshiba) based on its AP1000 design. The
Westinghouse AP1000 is the same reactor that India is seeking for its
Mithivirdi site plant. Thus, a Chinese option might provide an
alternative to the stalled US nuclear cooperation and also signal to
Japan the missed opportunity of reaching a deal.
Besides, the recently established New Development Bank is a
potential source of initial investment to attract Chinese and other
capital to fund the building of its plants in India. Clearly, there are
economic and technological reasons to consider Chinese reactors.
However, for India civil nuclear cooperation is never only about
energy; it is also about India’s role in the emerging global order.
Thus, a deal with China is conceivable only if Beijing is willing to
unequivocally support a permanent seat for India in the UNSC as well as
its membership of the NSG and other export control arrangements. The latter would also facilitate China’s nuclear exports.
While China’s efforts to support India’s membership in the Shanghai
Cooperation Organisation and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation are
steps in the right direction, they do not go far enough. It is time to
start a serious nuclear dialogue.
W.P.S. Sidhu is senior fellow for foreign policy at Brookings India and a senior fellow at the Center on International Cooperation, New York University. He writes on strategic affairs every fortnight.Read more at: http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/hTiSwP3bSTrhIKJvbh0r2I/The-merits-of-going-nuclear-with-China.html?utm_source=copy
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