Antichrist Protests Against Al-Maliki

Iraq: Sectarianism, Oil and the War in Syria (Part 1/2)

17 March 2014
Manuel Langendorf

Maliki treats the breakdown of order in Iraq as a challenge to his rule.
Iraq has certainly experienced a turbulent decade. The US-led invasion in 2003 which culminated in the ouster of long-time ruler Saddam Hussein was a game-changer in Iraq's history. Subsequent efforts by the Coalition Provisional Authority, under the leadership of Ambassador Paul Bremer, led to the dismantling of key institutions of the Ba'athist power structure on which Hussein relied, including the Iraqi army.
In 2005, a new constitution — which many argue is flawed — was approved, establishing the Republic of Iraq as a "single federal, independent and fully sovereign state" with Islam as its official religion.
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki rose to power in 2006 and is serving his second term in office.
Al-Maliki's premiership is far from uncontested, especially as Iraqi Sunnis have accused him of discrimination and favoritism toward the Shi'a community, which the prime minister himself is a part of. Antigovernment protests that began in late 2012, predominantly by but not only limited to the disenfranchised Sunni community, turned violent last year. In 2013, Iraq witnessed its most violent period in over five years with a significant increase in inter-communal conflict.
Experts and different players in Iraq are divided over what caused this flare-up in violence. In April 2013, al-Maliki stated that sectarian conflict had returned to Iraq "because it began in another place" of the region. His statement was seen as a reference to the civil war in Syria, which is about to enter its fourth year.
Iraq, a founding member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), has large oil reserves which are unevenly spread across the country. As of January 2013, it also held the 12^th largest natural gas reserves in the world, with over 60% being located in southern Iraq.
Situated along some of the region's key fault lines, Iraq's future is likely to determine some of the wider issues and conflicts in the Middle East.
Fair Observer's Middle East Editor, Manuel Langendorf, speaks to Chris Zambelis, a senior analyst specializing in Middle East affairs for the risk management group Helios Global. Langendorf and Zambelis talk about the causes of violence in Iraq, the players involved, and the country's potential in the world energy market.
Manuel Langendorf: While international media attention is mainly directed at the situation in Syria, Iraq has witnessed some of the bloodiest months in its recent history with anti-government protests, a resurgence of suicide bombings, and a general increase in inter-communal conflict. What is behind this flare-up in violence? Earlier this year, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki argued that sectarian violence had returned to Iraq due to a spillover effect from Syria. Is this the reason?
Chris Zambelis: The reasons for the notable upsurge of violence in Iraq are manifold and are based on internal Iraqi and regional geopolitical factors. According to most authoritative estimates, in 2013 Iraq experienced its worst bout of protracted violence since 2008. Based on the latest indicators, 2014 portends to be as bad if not worse than 2013. We have to consider the numerous domestic social, political and economic factors behind the violence.
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who heads the Shi'a-led Islamic Dawa Party and the political parties and independents that make up the Shi'a-led State of Law Coalition, has engendered widespread opposition among a large segment of Iraq's Sunni Arab population. This reality is best demonstrated by the actions of those residing in Anbar Province and other parts of western Iraq.
Many Sunni Arabs feel marginalized by what they see as a campaign led by al-Maliki and his Shi'a allies to permanently undermine their influence in Iraq. While having to endure the authoritarianism of the previous Ba'athist order just like all Iraqis, Sunni Arabs tended to dominate the old institutions such as the public sector and security services, while Shi'a Arabs and Kurds, among others, faced widespread persecution.
The tide has now turned: Shi'a Arabs, who constitute the majority of Iraq's population, have come to dominate post-Ba'athist Iraqi society. The arrests of many high-profile Sunni Arab political, religious and tribal figures opposed to al-Maliki, including individuals associated with the previous Ba'athist order and various Sunni Islamist movements, have also inflamed tensions. The resort to violent crackdowns against public demonstrations by Sunni Arabs, who continue to agitate against Baghdad in places such as al-Fallujah and al-Ramadi in Anbar Province, has likewise raised the political temperature.
The Iraqi prime minister is also seen as having abandoned any attempt to engender support beyond his core Shi'a Arab demographic base in favor of an agenda characterized by sectarianism and revenge. Many Sunni Arabs view the Iraqi security forces as personal instruments of al-Maliki and his allies, essentially extensions of the many Shi'a militias that emerged across Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein.
This community also perceives al-Maliki as having no regard for their grievances and concerns. These are valid concerns considering al-Maliki's penchant for attributing expressions of dissent and political organization by Sunni Arabs to Ba'athist or radical Islamist militancy. It is against this backdrop that we have seen calls by numerous factions for autonomy and even the outright independence of Anbar Province (and other regions of Iraq).
Furthermore, it is important to remember that Iraq is scheduled to hold national elections for the Council of Representatives in April. There has been a great deal of controversy surrounding the upcoming elections and al-Maliki's aspirations.
In January 2013, Iraqi lawmakers voted to bar al-Maliki from contesting a third term in office, by instituting a provision on term limits on those serving in senior government posts. Yet a decision by Iraq's Supreme Court in August in that same year overruled the law on term limits, enabling al-Maliki to seek a third term. Not surprisingly, al-Maliki has come to be viewed as being increasingly autocratic and corrupt.
To add another layer of complexity to the situation in question, a notable segment of Shi'a Arabs, particularly those loyal to the influential cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, have likewise taken to the streets in a show of force against al-Maliki. Some members of al-Maliki's own political coalition have also criticized his actions in recent years.

World War II Was Also A Low Risk

India And Nuclear Terrorism: Meeting The Threat – Analysis

March 17, 2014 IPCS 2 Comments

By IPCS
By PR Chari

Nuclear Terrorism: Is the threat exaggerated?

To play the Devil’s Advocate, it is not easy for unauthorized persons to acquire nuclear weapons or nuclear materials. Being crown jewels, they would be closely guarded by trusted cohorts. Even if they are subverted, the terrorists would have to overcome many other problems. Nuclear warheads are maintained in an unarmed state, and armed using electronic codes to ensure against accidental detonation. These codes are kept secret by the ‘release authority’, obviously the Chief Executive in the nation. Further, in the case of India and Pakistan, nuclear cores are kept separate from the warheads and delivery vehicles; hence several steps have to be taken by different bodies to arm these weapons. Could all these hurdles be surmounted by a terrorist group?
Second, the problems faced to acquire nuclear materials is no less acute. Arrangements for their protection would be equally stringent. Should a terrorist group somehow gain access to weapons-usable nuclear materials, fashioning it into a deliverable nuclear weapon is not a trivial task.
Third, scenario builders have also visualized terrorist organizations gaining control over the nation, and accessing its military nuclear program and nuclear weapons. But the probability of all these events occurring must be rated low.

Nuclear Terrorism: Low Probability, but High Consequence

Despite the above, it is known that senior Pakistani scientists were in touch with Osama bin Laden. The CIA has highlighted al Qaeda’s general interest in weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons. Al Qaeda’s branches and franchisees span the world. Moreover, several instances are known of missing nuclear materials being recovered. More alarmingly, nuclear materials have been found to be missing after they were recovered. Nuclear terrorism remains a discrete possibility; hence it should be designated a low probability high consequence event.
An imperative need consequently for the upcoming Netherlands Nuclear Security Summit to work towards establishing tighter international controls over nuclear materials; seeking greater transparency on national measures to enhance nuclear security; gaining more adherents for international agreements pertaining to the physical protection of nuclear materials; reducing the use of highly enriched uranium (HEU) and plutonium in national nuclear programs; registering the sources of radioactive materials that have extensive medical, educational and research applications; and strengthening the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Iran Still Purchasing Missile Parts

Iran pursuing banned items for nuclear, missile work – U.S. official

BY WILLIAM MACLEAN
DUBAI Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:04pm IST

Map locating nuclear facilities in Iran.

(Reuters) – Iran has pursued a longstanding effort to buy banned components for its nuclear and missile programmes in recent months, a U.S. official said on Sunday, a period when it struck an interim deal with major powers to limit its disputed atomic activity.
Vann Van Diepen, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Non-Proliferation, said Iran was still “very actively” creating front companies and engaging in other activity to conceal procurements.
The reported supplies do not contravene last year’s breakthrough agreement between Tehran and six world powers to curb its most sensitive atomic activity in exchange for some limited easing of sanctions damaging its economy.
But such trade would breach a 2006 U.N. embargo banning the provision by any nation to Iran of materials related to its nuclear and missile development work. Western experts say such low-profile procurement efforts by Iran date back many years, perhaps decades in the case of its nuclear activity.
Asked if he had seen a change in Iranian procurement behaviour in the past six to 12 months, a period that has seen a cautious thaw in U.S.-Iranian relations after decades of hostility, Van Diepen replied: “The short answer is no.
“They still continue very actively trying to procure items for their nuclear programme and missile programme and other programmes,” he told Reuters in an interview.
“We continue to see them very actively setting up and operating through front companies, falsifying documentation, engaging in multiple levels of trans-shipment … to put more apparent distance between where the item originally came from and where it is ultimately going.”
Asked for reaction to the allegation, a senior Iranian official replied: “No comment”.
Van Diepen did not say what sort of components Iran had sought to obtain or which part of a government known for having competing hardline and moderate factions was responsible. In the past, Western officials said Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards and the Defence Ministry – both hotbeds of opposition to any rapprochement with the West – were believed to control clandestine nuclear procurement efforts.
Iran denies Western allegations that it has long sought covertly to develop the means to produce nuclear weapons, saying its uranium enrichment programme is solely a peaceful endeavour to yield electricity as well as isotopes for medical treatments.
DETERRENT
Diplomats have said that Iran is meeting its commitments under the November deal, under which Iran suspended its higher-grade enrichment and stopped increasing its capacity to produce low-refined uranium, among other steps. Uranium forms the core of a nuclear bomb if enriched to a high fissile purity.
The six-month agreement, which took effect on January 20 this year, was designed to buy time for talks on a final settlement defining the overall scope of Iran’s nuclear work to end fears that it could be diverted to military ends.
Those talks got under way in Vienna last month and a second round at the political director level will be held on March 18-19, also in the Austrian capital. The aim is to reach an agreement by late July, although that deadline can be extended by another half year if both sides agree.
Iran has one of the biggest missile programmes in the Middle East, regarding such weapons as an important deterrent and retaliatory force against U.S. and other adversaries – primarily Gulf Arabs – in the region in the event of war.
Its efforts to develop, test and field ballistic missiles, and build a space launch capability, have helped drive billions of dollars of U.S. ballistic missile defence expenditure, and contributed to Israel’s threats of possible pre-emptive military action against Iranian nuclear installations.
Since Iran is not a self-sufficient manufacturer of missiles, the expansion of its inventory depends on the import of goods and materiel sourced abroad.
Van Diepen said that while there was no direct link between the level of Iranian illicit procurement and the negotiations on a settlement to the nuclear dispute, “obviously if the negotiations succeed then there should therefore be a corresponding decrease in Iranian proliferation activity.”
(Additional reporting by Parisa Hafezi in Ankara and Fredrik Dahl in Vienna, editing by Mark Heinrich)

Iran Stops Nuclear Sabotage

Iran ‘thwarts nuclear sabotage attempts’

Iran thwarts nuclear sabotage

Western powers say the Arak facility could be used to make plutonium for weapons [AP]
Iran has claimed it has thwarted a number of sabotage attempts against the country’s nulcear programme and infrastructure, including one at its heavy water reactor.
Asghar Zarean, a senior official in charge of nuclear security at the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran, said that Iran’s intelligence agencies were instrumental in uncovering plots over the last few months.
They included one at the Arak facility, according to a report from the Fars semi-official news agency quoted by the Associated Press.
The organisation said: “Several cases of industrial sabotage have been neutralized in the past few months before achieving the intended damage, including sabotage at a part of the IR-40 facility at Arak.”
It did not state the nature of the attacks, nor the suspected culprits, but the statements coincided with the launch of an intelligence team to fight cyber-attacks and industrial sabotage.
Another of Iran’s nuclear facilities, the uranium enrichment plant at Natanz, was the target of the “Stuxnet” computer virus in 2010 which temporarily disrupted operation of centrifuges, a key component in nuclear fuel production.
Tehran says Stuxnet and other computer virus attacks are part of a concerted campaign by Israel, the US and their allies to undermine its nuclear programme.
Arak was central to a deal cut last year between Western powers and Iran that lifted some sanctions in return for concessions on Iran’s nuclear programme.
Tehran pledged it would stop developing the facility, which Western powers say could yield plutonium as an alternative fuel for weapons. Iran denies any such goal, and says the facility is for research and peaceful purposes only.

Libyan Yellow Cake Still Available

Libyan yellow cake still available

Libya government announced on 5 February 2014 that it has destroyed its entire chemical arsenal. It was announced by the Foreign Minister of Libya, Mohammed Abdelaziz. The chemical arsenal destroyed included bombs and artillery shells filled with mustard gas.
Organisation for Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) confirmed that Libya has become totally free of usable chemical weapons that might present a potential threat to the security of local communities, the environment and neighbouring countries. Organisation for Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) visited the city of al-Raogha to inspect the warehouse where Libya’s largest outstanding stockpile of mustard gas was present. Libya still holds stocks of low-grade precursor chemicals but that programme has been put in place to destroy them by the end of 2016.

Since the OPCW covered only Gaddafi’s chemical weapons programme and it has not addressed the stocks of concentrated uranium or yellowcake that it acquired in its bid for a nuclear weapon.(emphasis added)

Analysis
Gaddafi signed the chemical weapons convention and joined the OPCW in 2004. After Libya signed the treaty, Gaddafi’s regime claimed that they destroyed about 54 percent of its mustard gas stocks and about 40 percent of the chemicals used to manufacture the substance and 3500 bombs.
In 2011 a large stock of yellow cake was discovered at arms depot in southern city of Sebha. Since then the stock pile was secured in collaboration with International Atomic Energy Agency. The Centre for Strategic Studies asked the Libyan authorities to ensure the concentrated uranium will be used in industrial, agricultural development and in production of clean energy for the benefits of Libyans.
The process of disarmament was supervised by OPCW experts in 2012 and intensified in 2013 with the signing of a deal with Washington. There was concern that the stockpiles might not fall into the hands of ex-rebel militias.

Saudi Arabia Will Obtain Nukes (Revelation 17)

Director of Political-Military Affairs for the Defense Ministry, Amos Gilad, warns Iran could set off nuclear arms race in Arab world.

http://www.andrewtheprophet.com

As soon as Iran gets a nuclear bomb, Egypt will develop its own nuclear weapon, and Saudi Arabia will purchase one from Pakistan, Maj.-Gen. (res.) Amos Gilad, director of political-military affairs at the Defense Ministry, warns.
“The Arabs will not tolerate the Persians having the bomb. From the moment the Iranians get the bomb, the Egyptians have the resources, capability and knowhow to achieve nuclear capabilities, and the Saudis will run to buy the bomb from the Pakistanis with a ‘member’s discount,’” Gilad said, speaking at a conference held by the Institute for Policy and Strategy at the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya on Tuesday.
Iran is trying to get nuclear weapons and won’t give up on this goal in talks with the global powers, Gilad cautioned, adding that the Islamic Republic would not forfeit “any essential component in its quest for nuclear capabilities. This is true even if it agrees to reduce uranium enrichment for tactical needs and maintaining the stability of the regime there.”
He said he was “disturbed that they [the international community] are going for an interim agreement mechanism. After six months, there will be another six months, and then there will be cracks in the wall of sanctions.”
Israel exercises a great deal of deterrent power, he stated. “The sense among our rivals is that we can deal with every aggregate of strategic threats.”
The good news in the region, he continued, is that in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood has been beaten back by Field Marshal Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, meaning that a ring of Islamist powers has not formed around Israel.
The Egyptians have managed to block “between 90 and 95 percent of [smuggling] tunnels to Gaza, and are fighting a determined war against al-Qaida in Sinai,” he said.
“In Turkey, [Prime Minister Recep Tayyip] Erdogan has been substantially weakened and returned to his natural dimensions. The stability of the Hashemite Kingdom in Jordan is an optimistic point of light.”
Turning his sights to Syria, Gilad said there was “no military threat to the north. The Russians, the Iranians and Hezbollah allow the Assad regime to survive with artificial life-support. There is no Syrian state, but there is a regime. And there’s a difficult humanitarian problem. I’d like to officially declare Syria dead, but the date of the funeral is not yet known.”

Iran Would Destroy Zion

IRGC Commander: Iran’s Finger on Trigger to Destroy Zionist Regime

TEHRAN (FNA)- Lieutenant Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Brigadier General Hossein Salami underlined that Iranian military commanders are prepared to attack and destroy the Zionist regime of Israel as soon as they receive such an order.

“Today, we can destroy every spot which is under the Zionist regime’s control with any volume of fire power (that we want) right from here,” Salami said, addressing a conference in Tehran on Tuesday dubbed ‘the Islamic World’s Role in the Geometry of the World Power’.
“Islam has given us this wish, capacity and power to destroy the Zionist regime so that our hands will remain on the trigger from 1,400km away for the day when such an incident (confrontation with Israel) takes place,” he added.
Salami reminded that Iran is not the only country which enjoys such a capability, as even the artilleries of a number of other (Muslim) countries can also target and attack the Zionist regime today.
In relevant remarks in November, Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei warned Iran’s enemies to avoid even thinking of any aggressive move against the country, stressing that the Iranian Armed Forces are ready to give such a crushing response to any threat that aggressors will never forget.
Addressing 50,000 Basij (volunteer force) commanders in Tehran, Ayatollah Khamenei pointed to the preparedness of Iran’s military forces, and said, “The response of the Iranian nation to any foreign aggression will be regrettable for the enemy.”
The Supreme Leader underlined that the increasing threats by the enemy show that the US-led western sanctions have not been effective and they have understood it themselves.
Addressing the arrogant powers, Ayatollah Khamenei said, “Instead of threatening other countries, go and deal with your wretched economic conditions and think of you debts.”
The Supreme Leader underlined that the Zionist regime has been imposed on the region, “Anything that is gained with force will not last long and this regime will not last either.”
Also in December, Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari underlined that Iran will give a crushing response to any possible aggressor.
Major General Jafari deplored the US president’s repeated rhetoric of “military option against Iran is on the table, as “ludicrous” and said, “Repetition of such an absurd sentence by the officials of the US and the fake and evil Zionist regime (of Israel) sounds funny to the Iranian nation.”
The IRGC commander went on to say that the US or Israeli officials are totally incapable of taking any military action against Iran, but at the same time affirmed that any “stupid measure” by the enemies would compel Iran to consider the options it has on the table.
“Lots of options are on the table for Iran, and they (enemies) will receive crushing responses, one of which would be elimination of the Zionist regime,” he warned.