PUBLISHED: 08:00, Sat, Apr 25, 2020
Frank O’Donnell fears a “dangerous arms race” (Image: GETTY)
THE increasingly fractious relationship between China and the United States, with Washington last week accusing Beijing of carrying out a series of nuclear tests last year,could result in an unpredictable and dangerous arms race between the world’s three superpowers, an US expert has warned.
Frank O’Donnell, a nonresident fellow in the Stimson Center South Asia Program, was speaking after a report published by the US State Department about possible breaches of a “zero yield” standard for test blasts in related to activities at China’s Lop Nur nuclear test site throughout the course of 2019. The document claims: “China’s possible preparation to operate its Lop Nur test site year-round, its use of explosive containment chambers, extensive excavation activities at Lop Nur and a lack of transparency on its nuclear testing activities raise concerns regarding its adherence to the zero yield standard.”
China subsequently denied the allegations, with foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian insisting his country was committed to a moratorium on nuclear tests.
He added: “China has always adopted a responsible attitude, earnestly fulfilling the international obligations and promises it has assumed.
“The US criticism of China is entirely groundless, without foundation, and not worth refuting.”
The report suggested tests of the nature outlined in the report would represent a breach of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. Both nations have signed the CTBT, but neither has so far ratified it.
Mr O’Donnell is sceptical about the claims outlined in the US report. He told Express.co.uk: “China’s aggressive expansionism in the East and South China Seas and continuing lack of transparency around the origins and current status of coronavirus infections within its borders remain concerns for global security.
“However, there is still no solid proof that China is changing its positions on the different issue of its nuclear policy and posture.
“In the US State Department’s recent report, strongly alleging that China has resumed supercritical nuclear testing at the Lop Nur facility, the supporting evidence provided for this allegation renders it little more than conjecture.
“In sum, the evidence presented is that, firstly, the facility has been recently augmented, including a claim that this includes ‘explosive containment chambers’.
“However, the terms of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty permit subcritical explosive tests, which “simulate aspects of nuclear explosions using chemical explosives.
“But since a subcritical mass of plutonium (or a surrogate material) is used, no actual nuclear explosion occurs.”
Mr O’Donnell pointed out: “The US, Russia, UK, and probably China have all conducted subcritical tests.
“It is telling that the US State Department reference to ‘explosive containment chambers’ does not specify the truth that such chambers could be utilised for such subcritical testing, and that such activities are consistent with regular practice by other nuclear weapons states, not least the US.”
Mr O’Donnell added: “If the Trump administration is truly concerned with Chinese nuclear testing activities and transparency, it should ratify the CTBT, as China has stated that it will ratify the Treaty following US ratification.
“Following this ratification, it could seek to negotiate an agreement with China and Russia regarding inspections of test facilities to determine that only subcritical tests are being conducted.
“That the US State Department seeks to generate these allegations, instead of pursuing these specific arms control and confidence-building initiatives as part of its diplomacy toward these states, indicates that it seeks to generate a general aura of a mushrooming Chinese nuclear threat.
“This serves to justify its recent departure from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, probable looming departure from the New START Treaty, and continuation of an unnecessary nuclear arms race with China and Russia.”
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