Pakistan, India expanding nuclear arsenals as global stockpiles decrease: report – World
Dawn.com
Although global nuclear stockpiles witnessed a drop in 2017 compared
to last year, Pakistan and India continue to expand its military fissile
material production capabilities on a scale that may enable a
significant increase in weapons inventories over the next 10 years, the
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri) said in a
publication titled “Trends in world nuclear forces, 2017”.
At the beginning of this year, the United States, Russia,
United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and the
Democratic People’s Republic of Korea all possessed approximately 4,150
operationally deployed nuclear weapons, the Sipri report said.
Russia possesses the greatest number of nuclear warheads
with 7,000, followed by the US with 6,800. Both have reduced their
stockpiles over the past decade, albeit at a slowing rate, the report
claimed.
The arsenals of other countries are considerably smaller,
but all are either developed or deployed new weapons systems or intend
to do so, according to the report. Pakistan and India both, for
instance, are working on developing new land, sea and air-based missile
delivery systems.
Pakistan
As of January 2017, Pakistan was estimated to possess a
stockpile of up to 140 warheads, according to the Sipri report. This
showed a marked increase from the 120–130 warheads estimated in the
research institute’s data for 2016.
Pakistan has been expanding its main plutonium production
complex at Khushab, Punjab, which consists of four operational
heavy-water nuclear reactors and a heavy-water production plant, as well
as constructing a new reprocessing plant at another site.
Thehave predicted that the size of Pakistan’s nuclear
stockpile will increase significantly over the next decade, although
estimates of the increase in warhead numbers vary considerably depending
on assumptions about Pakistan’s production capabilities.
While aircraft constitutes as Pakistan’s most developed nuclear payload delivery system, recently the government has focused on expanding its capabilities to nuclear-capable land-based ballistic and cruise missiles.
Pakistan currently deploys two types of road-mobile
short-range ballistic missiles and has developed two types of
medium-range ballistic missiles. The Shaheen-III missile ─ a
longer-range variant under development ─ will be capable of striking
targets throughout India.
A short-range nuclear-capable missile has also been
developed with the apparent use intention of being used in tactical
nuclear roles and missions.
“Their purpose is to offset India’s superior conventional forces in limited conflict scenarios.”
“Pakistan has acknowledged that it is seeking to match
India’s nuclear triad by developing a sea-based nuclear force,” the
report adds, acknowledging that there has been “considerable
speculation” that the sea-based force will initially consist of
nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missiles deployed on submarines or on
surface ships.
India
By the onset of 2017 India was estimated to have a nuclear arsenal of up to 130 weapons,
the report stated, and this represented an increase in the country’s
nuclear stockpile from the 110–120 warheads estimated in the Sipri
nuclear data for 2016.
The article goes on to note that India is moderately
expanding the size of its nuclear weapon stockpile as well as its
infrastructure for producing nuclear warheads.
“It [India] plans to build six fast breeder reactors, which
will significantly increase its capacity to produce plutonium for
weapons,” reads the report. India plans on expanding its uranium
enrichment capabilities with the construction of a new “un-safeguarded”
gas centrifuge facility, the report claims.
“India’s expanded centrifuge enrichment capacity has been
motivated by plans to build new naval propulsion reactors, but the
potential excess capacity could also signify its intent to move towards
thermonuclear weapons by blending the current plutonium arsenal with
uranium secondaries.”
India continues to maintain focus on developing the Agni
family of land-based nuclear-capable ballistic missiles ─ flight tests
of a new road-mobile, canister-launched ballistic missile, the Agni-V,
is reported to have a near-intercontinental range and possess the
capability of reaching targets throughout China.
The Agni-V is expected to be inducted into service in 2017.
India continues to develop the naval component of its triad of nuclear forces in pursuit of an assured second-strike capability.
