Preparing for War with Iran

The growing risk of armed conflict

Iran is back in the eye of the storm. Perhaps, this time Iran is more worried that a military action, long threatened by the US, may materialize. Iran is not alone in entertaining the apprehension.

Three summits held recently in Saudi Arabia and the resolutions adopted there flashed unnerving signals that the regional governments led by Saudi Arabia could take unprecedented risks to chastise Iran. These governments welcomed US sanctions on Tehran to restrain Iranian influence in Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. None of the regional governments wants Iran to make progress towards nuclear weapons acquisition. This maybe fine as Iran itself has denied that it is pursuing a nuclear weapons programme. The alliance, however, also wants to isolate Iran diplomatically and bleed it economically. Iran is losing patience over denial to sell its oil. It is feared that it might embark upon some reckless action. It has demonstrated its ability to closely monitor activity on American aircraft carrier in the Gulf. Saner voices from Europe managed to sober the saber-rattling President Trump last month. He then tweeted that the US did not want a regime change in Iran. The tweet was not enough to reassure Iran of his sincerity. His penchant for high-strung statements can turn the situation ugly and dangerous, to say the least, because of latest “suspected attacks” on oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and the sabotage of oil tankers in the same area and drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities earlier.

The oil supply through Strait of Hormuz is no longer safe. The US and its allies in Gulf strongly believe that Iran is behind the attacks. Such incidents may help the hawks in the US administration prevail.The UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash tweeted after the attack against the tankers, calling it ” a worrying development and a dangerous escalation.” So, it may be safe to argue that a storm is gathering, not for Iran alone. Its devastation will be witnessed beyond the region. The world economy may suffer massively if the current standoff prolongs. The latest discomforting attack on oil tanks came on the heels of a visit by Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to Iran (June 11-12). There was an expectation that the visit would help ease the military stalemate in the region, serve as an effective medium to communicate messages from Iranian to US leadership and vice versa.

The Iranian leadership understood the stakes involved in the visit- first by a Japanese prime mister since 1978. Reuters claimed that the Iranian president pressed Abe to break with US economic sanctions on Tehran, triggered by Mr Trump’s decision to pull out of a 2015 international deal to cap Iran’s nuclear programme. The challenge for Abe was indeed formidable. He not only aspired to use his good relations with Trump to defuse the crisis but also to secure uninterrupted oil supply from Iran. De-escalation is crucial for both Japan and Iran; Japan gets oil from Iran (5 per cent of Japan’s overall oil imports) and Iran’s economy hugely depends on oil sale.

The reduction in oil production has negatively impacted the economies of net oil importing countries. Japan is not alone in seeking a negotiated solution. European countries have been most vocal in trying to keep intact the nuclear deal despite the US withdrawal

President Trump must have encouraged Abe in his peace mission during his visit last month. Media then reported President Donald Trump having welcomed Abe’s help in dealing with Iran. Trump is aware of the complications and the high risk involved in the continued tensions and was forced to offer talks. The offer failed to elicit a positive response, as Iran is not ready to enhance the scope of the 2015 agreement.

While Tokyo disagrees with the US decision to pull out of the nuclear deal, Abe indicated concerns about Iran’s destabilizing influence in the region. “It is essential that Iran plays a constructive role in building solid peace and stability in the Middle East,” he said.

No doubt, peace and stability in the Middle East is indispensable not only for this region but for global prosperity. The reduction in oil production has negatively impacted the economies of net oil importing countries. Japan is not alone in seeking a negotiated solution. European countries have been most vocal in trying to keep intact the nuclear deal despite the US withdrawal. Germany’s foreign minister has visited Tehran to prevent possible scrapping of the deal by Tehran. According to the Iranian foreign minister who visited China, Japan, India, Pakistan in April only Russia and China had helped his country keep the nuclear deal going, and accused other parties to the agreement of letting Tehran down. In fact, no one wants that Iran be given any excuse to implement its threat of abandoning any of the terms of the agreed nuclear deal. Hence the US policy towards Iran continues to unnerve the US allies. Trump has declared the deal flawed and called for talks to negotiate a new deal. To achieve this goal he has intensified the US sanctions against Iran from the start of May, ordering all countries and firms to halt imports of Iranian oil or be banished from the global financial system.

With Israel and Saudi Arabia extending full support to Trump’s Iran policy, the prospects of an unintended armed conflict cannot be brushed aside. Trump is in a quandary; he cannot afford to have Iran resume its enrichment of uranium beyond the low fissile purity allowed under the 2015 nuclear deal, nor can he force European parties to the deal abandon the 2015 nuclear deal. Iran is also not in a happy or comfortable position. Its economy is under severe strain, evoking public anger and unrest. The sense of despair gripping Iran is bound to dampen the little hope the furry of diplomatic activity generated in last three weeks. The Saudi vows to prevent oil crash by increasing oil production stand little chance to reassure the energy-starved countries. While major powers have locked horns over trade issues, the world cannot sustain another armed conflict, aggravating the agony caused by US invasion of Iraq, Libya and Syria. Diplomacy needs to be given priority both in Washington and Tehran.

The writer is a former ambassador and an adviser to the CRSS, an independent think tank in Islamabad