Iraqi Special Forces with the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) entered Mosul two years after the city was turned into a Daesh stronghold in Iraq overrun by its brutal militants. The anti-Daesh troops are gaining ground on multiple fronts and advancing toward the center of the Daesh-held city of Mosul from the West. They are clearing buildings in eastern Mosul to wipe out Daesh from occupied neighborhoods in the city. According to the U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter Daesh Brett McGurk, the Mosul operation, which began on November 16, is ahead of schedule and the success of the operations is obvious in terms of military gains. Since the operation was launched, experts have raged over the future of Mosul with a specific emphasis on the number of fighters on the ground in visual and written media. However, the future of Mosul is based on more than the numerical superiority of 300,000 Iraqi armed forces vis-a-vis the estimated number of 3,500 to 5,000 Daesh militants. Moreover, should the operation to expel Daesh militants from Mosul be complete, still the future of the city is premised on more than the impending military success hoped for. Although there will be overwhelming attention paid to the current military gains on the battlefield, Iraq obviously needs an urgent reconstruction of its state mechanism.
NOTIFICATION OF FAILED IRAQI STATE
Mosul, as the second biggest city in Iraq, symbolizes a failed state structure rooted from a political, financial and judicial legitimacy crisis following the defeat of the Saddam Hussein regime. The detonator of the crisis is primarily based on the adverse interests of various political actors holding multiple sectarian and ethnic identities. The abundance of political actors causes people to succumb to strategic rift and political intrigue in Iraqi politics. To put it more explicitly, each actor is struggling to foment political clout to mar the interests of the other actors. While each actor is bearing down on the positions of others, civilians are calling on them to reach a permanent solution for better governance. A rather exclusionist agenda will hinder any attempt to spawn a reconstructive state where the rule of law is paramount.
LEGITIMACY MATTERS IN IRAQI POLITICS
The crisis in Iraq has made great strides currently when the most prominent Shiite cleric figure Muqtada Al-Sadr and his young followers occupied Green Zone motivated by a direct critique of corruption and institutionalization of sectarian political system a couple of months ago. The protestors indicated entrenched sectarian meltdown in Iraqi politics resulting in widespread discontent especially among those out of power. Iraqi people are not pleased with newly emerging circumstances which ignites new intra ethnic and intra sectarian fissures because competition between domestic actors is plunging the country into deeper instability. In addition, fueled sectarian conflicts are sweeping government's incapability of providing essential services such as water, electricity and security under a carpet in a consistent manner. These are the vital issues for the agenda of ordinary Iraqi people; so the chaos could not be explained by just fragmented sectarian politics. Not only has intra sectarian and ethnic rift mounted instability but also lack of legitimacy has sparked off aggravation of state crisis in Iraq. Establishment of rule of law is a prerequisite for government legitimacy; nevertheless, the Abadi government is incapable of instilling confidence. This is largely due to the lack of basic services which should be provided by the state apparatus. Apart from simmering discontent among the Iraqi people over the failure of Iraq's governing institutions, the federal court of Iraq has found decisions held in key sessions of the Council of Representatives (CoR) unconstitutional several times (such as abolishment of ceremonial posts of the country's vice president and deputy prime minister and selection of five technocratic ministers). Nullification of the sessions is damaging the credibility, reliability and legitimacy of the Abadi government. Furthermore, the Iraqi Council of Representatives withdrew confidence in the minister of defense and minister of interior on the eve of the uphill Mosul operation to wipe out Daesh militants. In short, Iraq currently has neither a minister of defense nor a minister of interior. Dismissing ministers once again reduced the legitimacy of the government while Abadi aimed to snuffing out opposite voices to appeal for public support and consolidate his power.
CORRUPTION THRIVED IN IRAQI LANDS
Finally, another issue to be underscored: If we are talking about state crisis in Iraq, it should be an extensive corruption embedded in Iraq's political culture. Recently, a case of corruption was reported at the Karbala Real Estate Registration Directorate which is about the illegal extortion of real estate properties owned specifically by the Christian community. Virtually, sociological roots of corruption phenomenon in Iraq intrinsically hinges on informal networks, namely tribal and religious communities. Therefore, crippling the chain of corruption thrived in Iraq could not be handled by the current Abadi government due to the massive lack of governmental legitimacy and rule of law.
MOSUL IS SYMBOLIZING LONG-TERM REPERCUSSIONS
Based on the brief glimpse into political impasse in Iraq, a military victory in Mosul is not sufficient to build up Iraq state apparatus. Currently, all ethnic and sectarian groups have coalesced under a single roof to drive out Daesh from Iraq. Nevertheless, nobody knows how regional dynamics will change after a much-awaited Mosul victory. Having been lining up against a common enemy will definitely precipitate to pave the way for a military success on the battlefield but still there are some questions that should be answered about political stabilization of Mosul. Keeping remarks solely on Sunni-Shiite dimension is not enough to explain the root causes of political instability because Mosul is more than a Muslim society. Iraq has many Shiite, Sunni, Kurdish, Yazidi, Shabak and Turkmen communities, all having different priorities s in a competing political agenda. What is striking is that intra group struggles are also widespread, namely, the Shiites are protesting against Shiite leaders and Kurds are protesting against Kurdish leaders or some tribes are protesting Daesh - some of them are propping up Daesh militants on the ground. Apart from the complicated group dynamics, Iraq faces a major political crisis rooted from lack of governmental legitimacy that suspends quelling tensions. Due to the high level of corruption, lack of rule of law and growing budget crisis, the Iraqi government is having difficulty running Iraq's economic activities which exacerbates socio-political unrest ahead of provincial and parliamentary elections. Briefly stated, the presence of intertwined relations between political and economic actors holding the ground, Mosul is symbolizing more than an oncoming military success against Daesh, but also a representative sample to interpret the course of evolving local and regional dynamics in the Middle East. Steps to be taken to ensure stabilization of Mosul will have long-term repercussions for the future of the Kurdish region, Baghdad, the Sunni areas and region in a broader sense.
* Middle East studies research master's degree at METU
No comments:
Post a Comment